Moving Target Defense (MTD) has emerged as a proactive and dynamic framework to counteract evolving cyber threats. Traditional MTD approaches often rely on assumptions about the attackers knowledge and behavior. However, real-world scenarios are inherently more complex, with adaptive attackers and limited prior knowledge of their payoffs and intentions. This paper introduces a novel approach to MTD using a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model that does not rely on predefined attacker payoffs. Our framework integrates the attackers real-time responses into the defenders MDP using a dynamic Bayesian Network. By employing a factored MDP model, we provide a comprehensive and realistic system representation. We also incorporate incremental updates to an attack response predictor as new data emerges. This ensures an adaptive and robust defense mechanism. Additionally, we consider the costs of switching configurations in MTD, integrating them into the reward structure to balance execution and defense costs. We first highlight the challenges of the problem through a theoretical negative result on regret. However, empirical evaluations demonstrate the frameworks effectiveness in scenarios marked by high uncertainty and dynamically changing attack landscapes.

A text stream is an ordered sequence of text documents generated over time. A massive amount of such text data is generated by online social platforms every day. Designing an algorithm for such text streams to extract useful information is a challenging task due to unique properties of the stream such as infinite length, data sparsity, and evolution. Thereby, learning useful information from such streaming data under the constraint of limited time and memory has gained increasing attention. During the past decade, although many text stream mining algorithms have proposed, there still exists some potential issues. First, high-dimensional text data heavily degrades the learning performance until the model either works on subspace or reduces the global feature space. The second issue is to extract semantic text representation of documents and capture evolving topics over time. Moreover, the problem of label scarcity exists, whereas existing approaches work on the full availability of labeled data. To deal with these issues, in this thesis, new learning models are proposed for clustering and multi-label learning on text streams.

Deep learning has shown tremendous progress in a wide range of digital pathology and medical image classification tasks. Its integration into safe clinical decision-making support requires robust and reliable models. However, real-world data comes with diversities that often lie outside the intended source distribution. Moreover, when test samples are dramatically different, clinical decision-making is greatly affected. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in models is crucial for well-calibrated predictions and determining when (or not) to trust a model. Unfortunately, many works have overlooked the importance of predictive uncertainty estimation. This paper evaluates whether predictive uncertainty estimation adds robustness to deep learning-based diagnostic decision-making systems. We investigate the effect of various carcinoma distribution shift scenarios on predictive performance and calibration. We first systematically investigate three popular methods for improving predictive uncertainty: Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, and few-shot learning on lung adenocarcinoma classification as a primary disease in whole slide images. Secondly, we compare the effectiveness of the methods in terms of performance and calibration under clinically relevant distribution shifts such as in-distribution shifts comprising primary disease sub-types and other characterization analysis data; out-of-distribution shifts comprising well-differentiated cases, different organ origin, and imaging modality shifts. While studies on uncertainty estimation exist, to our best knowledge, no rigorous large-scale benchmark compares predictive uncertainty estimation including these dataset shifts for lung carcinoma classification.

Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations (PDEs) has emerged as a promising approach for deriving governing physics when domain knowledge about observed data is limited. Despite recent progress, the identification of governing equations and their parametric dependencies using conventional information criteria remains challenging in noisy situations, as the criteria tend to select overly complex PDEs. In this paper, we introduce an extension of the uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC), which is adapted to solve parametric PDE discovery problems efficiently without requiring computationally expensive PDE simulations. This extended UBIC uses quantified PDE uncertainty over different temporal or spatial points to prevent overfitting in model selection. The UBIC is computed with data transformation based on power spectral densities to discover the governing parametric PDE that truly captures qualitative features in frequency space with a few significant terms and their parametric dependencies (i.e., the varying PDE coefficients), evaluated with confidence intervals. Numerical experiments on canonical PDEs demonstrate that our extended UBIC can identify the true number of terms and their varying coefficients accurately, even in the presence of noise. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Pongpisit-Thanasutives/parametric-discovery}.

The gamma belief network (GBN), often regarded as a deep topic model, has demonstrated its potential for uncovering multi-layer interpretable latent representations in text data. Its notable capability to acquire interpretable latent factors is partially attributed to sparse and non-negative gamma-distributed latent variables. However, the existing GBN and its variations are constrained by the linear generative model, thereby limiting their expressiveness and applicability. To address this limitation, we introduce the generalized gamma belief network (Generalized GBN) in this paper, which extends the original linear generative model to a more expressive non-linear generative model. Since the parameters of the Generalized GBN no longer possess an analytic conditional posterior, we further propose an upward-downward Weibull inference network to approximate the posterior distribution of the latent variables. The parameters of both the generative model and the inference network are jointly trained within the variational inference framework. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on both expressivity and disentangled representation learning tasks to evaluate the performance of the Generalized GBN against state-of-the-art Gaussian variational autoencoders serving as baselines.

Model parsimony is an important \emph{cognitive bias} in data-driven modelling that aids interpretability and helps to prevent over-fitting. Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) methods are able to learn sparse representations of complex dynamics directly from data, given a basis of library functions. In this work, a novel Bayesian treatment of dictionary learning system identification, as an alternative to SINDy, is envisaged. The proposed method -- Bayesian identification of nonlinear dynamics (BINDy) -- is distinct from previous approaches in that it targets the full joint posterior distribution over both the terms in the library and their parameterisation in the model. This formulation confers the advantage that an arbitrary prior may be placed over the model structure to produce models that are sparse in the model space rather than in parameter space. Because this posterior is defined over parameter vectors that can change in dimension, the inference cannot be performed by standard techniques. Instead, a Gibbs sampler based on reversible-jump Markov-chain Monte-Carlo is proposed. BINDy is shown to compare favourably to ensemble SINDy in three benchmark case-studies. In particular, it is seen that the proposed method is better able to assign high probability to correct model terms.

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in various domains. Recent studies have shown that LLMs can surpass humans in certain tasks, such as predicting the outcomes of neuroscience studies. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members' confidence is well-calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated in a neuroscience forecasting task that, even when humans were inferior to LLMs, their combination with one or more LLMs consistently improved team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

Causality plays a pivotal role in various fields of study. Based on the framework of causal graphical models, previous works have proposed identifying whether a variable is a cause or non-cause of a target in every Markov equivalent graph solely by learning a local structure. However, the presence of prior knowledge, often represented as a partially known causal graph, is common in many causal modeling applications. Leveraging this prior knowledge allows for the further identification of causal relationships. In this paper, we first propose a method for learning the local structure using all types of causal background knowledge, including direct causal information, non-ancestral information and ancestral information. Then we introduce criteria for identifying causal relationships based solely on the local structure in the presence of prior knowledge. We also apply out method to fair machine learning, and experiments involving local structure learning, causal relationship identification, and fair machine learning demonstrate that our method is both effective and efficient.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a powerful framework for making predictions and understanding uncertainty for classification with kernels and Bayesian non-parametric learning. Building such models typically requires strong prior knowledge to define preselect kernels, which could be ineffective for online applications of classification that sequentially process data because features of data may shift during the process. To alleviate the requirement of prior knowledge used in GPs and learn new features from data that arrive successively, this paper presents a novel method to automatically discover models of classification on complex data with little prior knowledge. Our method adapts a recently proposed technique for GP-based time-series structure discovery, which integrates GPs and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We extend the technique to handle extra latent variables in GP classification, such that our method can effectively and adaptively learn a-priori unknown structures of classification from continuous input. In addition, our method adapts new batch of data with updated structures of models. Our experiments show that our method is able to automatically incorporate various features of kernels on synthesized data and real-world data for classification. In the experiments of real-world data, our method outperforms various classification methods on both online and offline setting achieving a 10\% accuracy improvement on one benchmark.

Hyperspectral unmixing is the process of determining the presence of individual materials and their respective abundances from an observed pixel spectrum. Unmixing is a fundamental process in hyperspectral image analysis, and is growing in importance as increasingly large spectral libraries are created and used. Unmixing is typically done with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. However, unmixing with large spectral libraries where the materials present in a pixel are not a priori known, solving for the coefficients in OLS requires inverting a non-invertible matrix from a large spectral library. A number of regression methods are available that can produce a numerical solution using regularization, but with considerably varied effectiveness. Also, simple methods that are unpopular in the statistics literature (i.e. step-wise regression) are used with some level of effectiveness in hyperspectral analysis. In this paper, we provide a thorough performance evaluation of the methods considered, evaluating methods based on how often they select the correct materials in the models. Investigated methods include ordinary least squares regression, non-negative least squares regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, step-wise regression and Bayesian model averaging. We evaluated these unmixing approaches using multiple criteria: incorporation of non-negative abundances, model size, accurate mineral detection and root mean squared error (RMSE). We provide a taxonomy of the regression methods, showing that most methods can be understood as Bayesian methods with specific priors. We conclude that methods that can be derived with priors that correspond to the phenomenology of hyperspectral imagery outperform those with priors that are optimal for prediction performance under the assumptions of ordinary least squares linear regression.