Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations, or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types, and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network's ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. Bayesian OED requires four elements: 1) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and travel time data from the sensor network, 2) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, 3) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a dataset of hypothetical prior events, 4) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number, and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

We propose a scalable kinetic Langevin dynamics algorithm for sampling parameter spaces of big data and AI applications. Our scheme combines a symmetric forward/backward sweep over minibatches with a symmetric discretization of Langevin dynamics. For a particular Langevin splitting method (UBU), we show that the resulting Symmetric Minibatch Splitting-UBU (SMS-UBU) integrator has bias $O(h^2 d^{1/2})$ in dimension $d>0$ with stepsize $h>0$, despite only using one minibatch per iteration, thus providing excellent control of the sampling bias as a function of the stepsize. We apply the algorithm to explore local modes of the posterior distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and evaluate the calibration performance of the posterior predictive probabilities for neural networks with convolutional neural network architectures for classification problems on three different datasets (Fashion-MNIST, Celeb-A and chest X-ray). Our results indicate that BNNs sampled with SMS-UBU can offer significantly better calibration performance compared to standard methods of training and stochastic weight averaging.

Reasoning is key to many decision making processes. It requires consolidating a set of rule-like premises that are often associated with degrees of uncertainty and observations to draw conclusions. In this work, we address both the case where premises are specified as numeric probabilistic rules and situations in which humans state their estimates using words expressing degrees of certainty. Existing probabilistic reasoning datasets simplify the task, e.g., by requiring the model to only rank textual alternatives, by including only binary random variables, or by making use of a limited set of templates that result in less varied text. In this work, we present QUITE, a question answering dataset of real-world Bayesian reasoning scenarios with categorical random variables and complex relationships. QUITE provides high-quality natural language verbalizations of premises together with evidence statements and expects the answer to a question in the form of an estimated probability. We conduct an extensive set of experiments, finding that logic-based models outperform out-of-the-box large language models on all reasoning types (causal, evidential, and explaining-away). Our results provide evidence that neuro-symbolic models are a promising direction for improving complex reasoning. We release QUITE and code for training and experiments on Github.

In this study, we propose a robust set of features derived from a thorough research of contemporary practices in voice pathology detection. The feature set is based on the combination of acoustic handcrafted features. Additionally, we introduce pitch difference as a novel feature. We combine this feature set, containing data from the publicly available Saarbr\"ucken Voice Database (SVD), with preprocessing using the K-Means Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique algorithm to address class imbalance. Moreover, we applied multiple ML models as binary classifiers. We utilized support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, naive Bayes, decision tree, random forest and AdaBoost classifiers. To determine the best classification approach, we performed grid search on feasible hyperparameters of respective classifiers and subsections of features. Our approach has achieved the state-of-the-art performance, measured by unweighted average recall in voice pathology detection on SVD database. We intentionally omit accuracy as it is highly biased metric in case of unbalanced data compared to aforementioned metrics. The results are further enhanced by eliminating the potential overestimation of the results with repeated stratified cross-validation. This advancement demonstrates significant potential for the clinical deployment of ML methods, offering a valuable tool for an objective examination of voice pathologies. To support our claims, we provide a publicly available GitHub repository with DOI 10.5281/zenodo.13771573. Finally, we provide REFORMS checklist.

Bayesian optimisation for real-world problems is often performed interactively with human experts, and integrating their domain knowledge is key to accelerate the optimisation process. We consider a setup where experts provide advice on the next query point through binary accept/reject recommendations (labels). Experts' labels are often costly, requiring efficient use of their efforts, and can at the same time be unreliable, requiring careful adjustment of the degree to which any expert is trusted. We introduce the first principled approach that provides two key guarantees. (1) Handover guarantee: similar to a no-regret property, we establish a sublinear bound on the cumulative number of experts' binary labels. Initially, multiple labels per query are needed, but the number of expert labels required asymptotically converges to zero, saving both expert effort and computation time. (2) No-harm guarantee with data-driven trust level adjustment: our adaptive trust level ensures that the convergence rate will not be worse than the one without using advice, even if the advice from experts is adversarial. Unlike existing methods that employ a user-defined function that hand-tunes the trust level adjustment, our approach enables data-driven adjustments. Real-world applications empirically demonstrate that our method not only outperforms existing baselines, but also maintains robustness despite varying labelling accuracy, in tasks of battery design with human experts.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, a consensus on the correct measurement of predictive uncertainty remains elusive. In this work, we return to first principles to develop a fundamental framework of information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We empirically evaluate these measures in typical uncertainty estimation settings, such as misclassification detection, selective prediction, and out-of-distribution detection. The results show that no single measure is universal, but the effectiveness depends on the specific setting. Thus, our work provides clarity about the suitability of predictive uncertainty measures by clarifying their implicit assumptions and relationships.

The aim of the notes is to demonstrate the potential for ideas in machine learning to impact on the fields of inverse problems and data assimilation. The perspective is one that is primarily aimed at researchers from inverse problems and/or data assimilation who wish to see a mathematical presentation of machine learning as it pertains to their fields. As a by-product of the presentation we present a succinct mathematical treatment of various topics in machine learning. The material on machine learning, along with some other related topics, is summarized in Part III, Appendix. Part I of the notes is concerned with inverse problems, employing material from Part III; Part II of the notes is concerned with data assimilation, employing material from Parts I and III.

The logit transform is arguably the most widely-employed link function beyond linear settings. This transformation routinely appears in regression models for binary data and provides, either explicitly or implicitly, a core building-block within state-of-the-art methodologies for both classification and regression. Its widespread use, combined with the lack of analytical solutions for the optimization of general losses involving the logit transform, still motivates active research in computational statistics. Among the directions explored, a central one has focused on the design of tangent lower bounds for logistic log-likelihoods that can be tractably optimized, while providing a tight approximation of these log-likelihoods. Although progress along these lines has led to the development of effective minorize-maximize (MM) algorithms for point estimation and coordinate ascent variational inference schemes for approximate Bayesian inference under several logit models, the overarching focus in the literature has been on tangent quadratic minorizers. In fact, it is still unclear whether tangent lower bounds sharper than quadratic ones can be derived without undermining the tractability of the resulting minorizer. This article addresses such a challenging question through the design and study of a novel piece-wise quadratic lower bound that uniformly improves any tangent quadratic minorizer, including the sharpest ones, while admitting a direct interpretation in terms of the classical generalized lasso problem. As illustrated in a ridge logistic regression, this unique connection facilitates more effective implementations than those provided by available piece-wise bounds, while improving the convergence speed of quadratic ones.

The vector quantization is a widely used method to map continuous representation to discrete space and has important application in tokenization for generative mode, bottlenecking information and many other tasks in machine learning. Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) is a type of variational autoencoder using discrete embedding as latent. We generalize the technique further, enriching the probabilistic framework with a Gaussian mixture as the underlying generative model. This framework leverages a codebook of latent means and adaptive variances to capture complex data distributions. This principled framework avoids various heuristics and strong assumptions that are needed with the VQ-VAE to address training instability and to improve codebook utilization. This approach integrates the benefits of both discrete and continuous representations within a variational Bayesian framework. Furthermore, by introducing the \textit{Aggregated Categorical Posterior Evidence Lower Bound} (ALBO), we offer a principled alternative optimization objective that aligns variational distributions with the generative model. Our experiments demonstrate that GM-VQ improves codebook utilization and reduces information loss without relying on handcrafted heuristics.

In this work, we have developed a variational Bayesian inference theory of elasticity, which is accomplished by using a mixed Variational Bayesian inference Finite Element Method (VBI-FEM) that can be used to solve the inverse deformation problems of continua. In the proposed variational Bayesian inference theory of continuum mechanics, the elastic strain energy is used as a prior in a Bayesian inference network, which can intelligently recover the detailed continuum deformation mappings with only given the information on the deformed and undeformed continuum body shapes without knowing the interior deformation and the precise actual boundary conditions, both traction as well as displacement boundary conditions, and the actual material constitutive relation. Moreover, we have implemented the related finite element formulation in a computational probabilistic mechanics framework. To numerically solve mixed variational problem, we developed an operator splitting or staggered algorithm that consists of the finite element (FE) step and the Bayesian learning (BL) step as an analogue of the well-known the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. By solving the mixed probabilistic Galerkin variational problem, we demonstrated that the proposed method is able to inversely predict continuum deformation mappings with strong discontinuity or fracture without knowing the external load conditions. The proposed method provides a robust machine intelligent solution for the long-sought-after inverse problem solution, which has been a major challenge in structure failure forensic pattern analysis in past several decades. The proposed method may become a promising artificial intelligence-based inverse method for solving general partial differential equations.