Tweedie's formula, we show that we can perform gradient steps to sequentially optimize these objectives.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution, rarely revealing the entire problem domain in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods that explicitly perform Bayesian nonparametric inference while being faster and simpler to use.

Sample-and computationally-efficient distribution estimation is a fundamental tenet in statistics and machine learning.

Interacting systems are prevalent in nature. It is challenging to accurately predict the dynamics of the system if its constituent components are analyzed independently. We develop a graph-based model that unveils the systemic interactions of time series observed at irregular time points, by using a directed acyclic graph to model the conditional dependencies (a form of causal notation) of the system components and learning this graph in tandem with a continuous-time model that parameterizes the solution curves of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Our technique, a graph neural flow, leads to substantial enhancements over non-graph-based methods, as well as graph-based methods without the modeling of conditional dependencies. We validate our approach on several tasks, including time series classification and forecasting, to demonstrate its efficacy.

Sampling-based inference and learning techniques, especially Bayesian inference, provide an essential approach to handling uncertainty in machine learning (ML). As these techniques are increasingly used in daily life, it becomes essential to safeguard the ML systems with various trustworthy-related constraints, such as fairness, safety, interpretability. Mathematically, enforcing these constraints in probabilistic inference can be cast into sampling from intractable distributions subject to general nonlinear constraints, for which practical efficient algorithms are still largely missing. In this work, we propose a family of constrained sampling algorithms which generalize Langevin Dynamics (LD) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) to incorporate a moment constraint specified by a general nonlinear function. By exploiting the gradient flow structure of LD and SVGD, we derive two types of algorithms for handling constraints, including a primal-dual gradient approach and the constraint controlled gradient descent approach. We investigate the continuous-time mean-field limit of these algorithms and show that they have O(1/t) convergence under mild conditions. Moreover, the LD variant converges linearly assuming that a log Sobolev like inequality holds. Various numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms in trustworthy settings.

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current machine learning approaches, however, mostly rely on rerunning simulations over a fixed set of designs available in the observed data, potentially neglecting informative correlations across the design space and requiring a large amount of simulations. Instead, we consider the calibration process from the perspective of Bayesian adaptive experimental design and propose a data-efficient algorithm to run maximally informative simulations within a batch-sequential process. At each round, the algorithm jointly estimates the parameters of the posterior distribution and optimal designs by maximising a variational lower bound of the expected information gain. The simulator is modelled as a sample from a Gaussian process, which allows us to correlate simulations and observed data with the unknown calibration parameters. We show the benefits of our method when compared to related approaches across synthetic and real-data problems.

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over the depth of neural networks. Di erent depths correspond to subnetworks which share weights and whose predictions are combined via marginalisation, yielding model uncertainty. By exploiting the sequential structure of feed-forward networks, we are able to both evaluate our training objective and make predictions with a single forward pass.

Causal discovery is essential for understanding relationships among variables of interest in many scientific domains. In this paper, we focus on permutation-based methods for learning causal graphs in Linear Gaussian Acyclic Models (LiGAMs), where the permutation encodes a causal ordering of the variables. Existing methods in this setting do not scale due to their high computational complexity.

Structured prediction of tree-shaped objects is heavily studied under the name of syntactic dependency parsing. Current practice based on maximum likelihood or margin is either agnostic to or inconsistent with the evaluation loss. Risk minimization alleviates the discrepancy between training and test objectives but typically induces a non-convex problem. These approaches adopt explicit regularization to combat overfitting without probabilistic interpretation. We propose a momentbased distributionally robust optimization approach for tree structured prediction, where the worst-case expected loss over a set of distributions within bounded moment divergence from the empirical distribution is minimized. We develop efficient algorithms for arborescences and other variants of trees. We derive Fisher consistency, convergence rates and generalization bounds for our proposed method. We evaluate its empirical effectiveness on dependency parsing benchmarks.

Eliciting a high-dimensional probability distribution from an expert via noisy judgments is notoriously challenging, yet useful for many applications, such as prior elicitation and reward modeling. We introduce a method for eliciting the expert's belief density as a normalizing flow based solely on preferential questions such as comparing or ranking alternatives. This allows eliciting in principle arbitrarily flexible densities, but flow estimation is susceptible to the challenge of collapsing or diverging probability mass that makes it difficult in practice. We tackle this problem by introducing a novel functional prior for the flow, motivated by a decision-theoretic argument, and show empirically that the belief density can be inferred as the function-space maximum a posteriori estimate. We demonstrate our method by eliciting multivariate belief densities of simulated experts, including the prior belief of a general-purpose large language model over a real-world dataset.