In designing generative models, it is commonly believed that in order to learn useful latent structure, we face a fundamental tension between expressivity and structure. In this paper we challenge this view by proposing a new approach to training arbitrarily expressive generative models that simultaneously learn disentangled latent structure. This is accomplished by adding a simple decoder-only module to the head of an existing decoder block that can be arbitrarily complex. The module learns to process concept information by implicitly inverting linear representations from an encoder. Inspired by the notion of intervention in causal graphical models, our module selectively modifies its architecture during training, allowing it to learn a compact joint model over different contexts. We show how adding this module leads to disentangled representations that can be composed for out-of-distribution generation. To further validate our proposed approach, we prove a new identifiability result that extends existing work on identifying structured representations in nonlinear models.

Large language models are thought to have potential to aid in medical decision making. We investigate this here. We start with the treatment problem, the patient's core medical decision-making task, which is solved in collaboration with a healthcare provider. We discuss approaches to solving the treatment problem, including -- within evidence-based medicine -- trials and observational data. We then discuss the chat problem, and how this differs from the treatment problem -- in particular as it relates to imitation. We then discuss how a large language model might be used to solve the treatment problem and highlight some of the challenges that emerge. We finally discuss how these challenges relate to evidence-based medicine, and how this might inform next steps.

A Bayesian Deep Restricted Boltzmann-Kohonen architecture for data clustering termed as DRBM-ClustNet is proposed. This core-clustering engine consists of a Deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine (DRBM) for processing unlabeled data by creating new features that are uncorrelated and have large variance with each other. Next, the number of clusters are predicted using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), followed by a Kohonen Network-based clustering layer. The processing of unlabeled data is done in three stages for efficient clustering of the non-linearly separable datasets. In the first stage, DRBM performs non-linear feature extraction by capturing the highly complex data representation by projecting the feature vectors of $d$ dimensions into $n$ dimensions. Most clustering algorithms require the number of clusters to be decided a priori, hence here to automate the number of clusters in the second stage we use BIC. In the third stage, the number of clusters derived from BIC forms the input for the Kohonen network, which performs clustering of the feature-extracted data obtained from the DRBM. This method overcomes the general disadvantages of clustering algorithms like the prior specification of the number of clusters, convergence to local optima and poor clustering accuracy on non-linear datasets. In this research we use two synthetic datasets, fifteen benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning repository, and four image datasets to analyze the DRBM-ClustNet. The proposed framework is evaluated based on clustering accuracy and ranked against other state-of-the-art clustering methods. The obtained results demonstrate that the DRBM-ClustNet outperforms state-of-the-art clustering algorithms.

It has been challenging to model the complex temporal-spatial dependencies between agents for trajectory prediction. As each state of an agent is closely related to the states of adjacent time steps, capturing the local temporal dependency is beneficial for prediction, while most studies often overlook it. Besides, learning the high-order motion state attributes is expected to enhance spatial interaction modeling, but it is rarely seen in previous works. To address this, we propose a lightweight framework, LTMSformer, to extract temporal-spatial interaction features for multi-modal trajectory prediction. Specifically, we introduce a Local Trend-Aware Attention mechanism to capture the local temporal dependency by leveraging a convolutional attention mechanism with hierarchical local time boxes. Next, to model the spatial interaction dependency, we build a Motion State Encoder to incorporate high-order motion state attributes, such as acceleration, jerk, heading, etc. To further refine the trajectory prediction, we propose a Lightweight Proposal Refinement Module that leverages Multi-Layer Perceptrons for trajectory embedding and generates the refined trajectories with fewer model parameters. Experiment results on the Argoverse 1 dataset demonstrate that our method outperforms the baseline HiVT-64, reducing the minADE by approximately 4.35%, the minFDE by 8.74%, and the MR by 20%. We also achieve higher accuracy than HiVT-128 with a 68% reduction in model size.

The field of hypothesis generation promises to reduce costs in neuroscience by narrowing the range of interventional studies needed to study various phenomena. Existing machine learning methods can generate scientific hypotheses from complex datasets, but many approaches assume causal relationships are static over time, limiting their applicability to systems with dynamic, state-dependent behavior, such as the brain. While some techniques attempt dynamic causal discovery through factor models, they often restrict relationships to linear patterns or impose other simplifying assumptions. We propose a novel method that models dynamic graphs as a conditionally weighted superposition of static graphs, where each static graph can capture nonlinear relationships. This approach enables the detection of complex, time-varying interactions between variables beyond linear limitations. Our method improves f1-scores of predicted dynamic causal patterns by roughly 22-28% on average over baselines in some of our experiments, with some improvements reaching well over 60%. A case study on real brain data demonstrates our method's ability to uncover relationships linked to specific behavioral states, offering valuable insights into neural dynamics.

Modern general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) systems present an urgent risk management challenge, as their rapidly evolving capabilities and potential for catastrophic harm outpace our ability to reliably assess their risks. Current methods often rely on selective testing and undocumented assumptions about risk priorities, frequently failing to make a serious attempt at assessing the set of pathways through which AI systems pose direct or indirect risks to society and the biosphere. This paper introduces the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for AI framework, adapting established PRA techniques from high-reliability industries (e.g., nuclear power, aerospace) for the new challenges of advanced AI. The framework guides assessors in identifying potential risks, estimating likelihood and severity bands, and explicitly documenting evidence, underlying assumptions, and analyses at appropriate granularities. The framework's implementation tool synthesizes the results into a risk report card with aggregated risk estimates from all assessed risks. It introduces three methodological advances: (1) Aspect-oriented hazard analysis provides systematic hazard coverage guided by a first-principles taxonomy of AI system aspects (e.g. capabilities, domain knowledge, affordances); (2) Risk pathway modeling analyzes causal chains from system aspects to societal impacts using bidirectional analysis and incorporating prospective techniques; and (3) Uncertainty management employs scenario decomposition, reference scales, and explicit tracing protocols to structure credible projections with novelty or limited data. Additionally, the framework harmonizes diverse assessment methods by integrating evidence into comparable, quantified absolute risk estimates for lifecycle decisions. We have implemented this as a workbook tool for AI developers, evaluators, and regulators.

Training physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for forward problems often suffers from severe convergence issues, hindering the propagation of information from regions where the desired solution is well-defined. Haitsiukevich and Ilin (2023) proposed an ensemble approach that extends the active training domain of each PINN based on i) ensemble consensus and ii) vicinity to (pseudo-)labeled points, thus ensuring that the information from the initial condition successfully propagates to the interior of the computational domain. In this work, we suggest replacing the ensemble by a Bayesian PINN, and consensus by an evaluation of the PINN's posterior variance. Our experiments show that this mathematically principled approach outperforms the ensemble on a set of benchmark problems and is competitive with PINN ensembles trained with combinations of Adam and LBFGS.

Inferring protein production kinetics for dividing cells is complicated due to protein inheritance from the mother cell. For instance, fluorescence measurements -- commonly used to assess gene activation -- may reflect not only newly produced proteins but also those inherited through successive cell divisions. In such cases, observed protein levels in any given cell are shaped by its division history. As a case study, we examine activation of the glc3 gene in yeast involved in glycogen synthesis and expressed under nutrient-limiting conditions. We monitor this activity using snapshot fluorescence measurements via flow cytometry, where GFP expression reflects glc3 promoter activity. A naïve analysis of flow cytometry data ignoring cell division suggests many cells are active with low expression. Explicitly accounting for the (non-Markovian) effects of cell division and protein inheritance makes it impossible to write down a tractable likelihood -- a key ingredient in physics-inspired inference, defining the probability of observing data given a model. The dependence on a cell's division history breaks the assumptions of standard (Markovian) master equations, rendering traditional likelihood-based approaches inapplicable. Instead, we adapt conditional normalizing flows (a class of neural network models designed to learn probability distributions) to approximate otherwise intractable likelihoods from simulated data. In doing so, we find that glc3 is mostly inactive under stress, showing that while cells occasionally activate the gene, expression is brief and transient.

Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are ubiquitous in statistical learning, particularly for unsupervised problems. While full GMMs suffer from the overparameterization of their covariance matrices in high-dimensional spaces, spherical GMMs (with isotropic covariance matrices) certainly lack flexibility to fit certain anisotropic distributions. Connecting these two extremes, we introduce a new family of parsimonious GMMs with piecewise-constant covariance eigenvalue profiles. These extend several low-rank models like the celebrated mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA), by enabling any possible sequence of eigenvalue multiplicities. If the latter are prespecified, then we can naturally derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to learn the mixture parameters. Otherwise, to address the notoriously-challenging issue of jointly learning the mixture parameters and hyperparameters, we propose a componentwise penalized EM algorithm, whose monotonicity is proven. We show the superior likelihood-parsimony tradeoffs achieved by our models on a variety of unsupervised experiments: density fitting, clustering and single-image denoising.

While digital twins (DT) hold promise for providing real-time insights into complex energy assets, much of the current literature either does not offer a clear framework for information exchange between the model and the asset, lacks key features needed for real-time implementation, or gives limited attention to model uncertainty. Here, we aim to solve these gaps by proposing a variational digital twin (VDT) framework that augments standard neural architectures with a single Bayesian output layer. This lightweight addition, along with a novel VDT updating algorithm, lets a twin update in seconds on commodity GPUs while producing calibrated uncertainty bounds that can inform experiment design, control algorithms, and model reliability. The VDT is evaluated on four energy-sector problems. For critical-heat-flux prediction, uncertainty-driven active learning reaches R2 = 0.98 using 47 % fewer experiments and one-third the training time of random sampling. A three-year renewable-generation twin maintains R2 > 0.95 for solar output and curbs error growth for volatile wind forecasts via monthly updates that process only one month of data at a time. A nuclear reactor transient cooldown twin reconstructs thermocouple signals with R2 > 0.99 and preserves accuracy after 50 % sensor loss, demonstrating robustness to degraded instrumentation. Finally, a physics-informed Li-ion battery twin, retrained after every ten discharges, lowers voltage mean-squared error by an order of magnitude relative to the best static model while adapting its credible intervals as the cell approaches end-of-life. These results demonstrate that combining modest Bayesian augmentation with efficient update schemes turns conventional surrogates into uncertainty-aware, data-efficient, and computationally tractable DTs, paving the way for dependable models across industrial and scientific energy systems.