In a Bayesian framework, we give a principled account of how domainspecific prior knowledge such as imperfect analytic domain theories can be optimally incorporated into networks of locally-tuned units: by choosing a specific architecture and by applying a specific training regimen. Our method proved successful in overcoming the data deficiency problem in a large-scale application to devise a neural control for a hot line rolling mill. It achieves in this application significantly higher accuracy than optimally-tuned standard algorithms such as sigmoidal backpropagation, and outperforms the state-of-the-art solution.

In this paper we investigate an average-case model of concept learning, and give results that place the popular statistical physics and VC dimension theories of learning curve behavior in a common framework.

The Bayesian model comparison framework is reviewed, and the Bayesian Occam's razor is explained. This framework can be applied to feedforward networks, making possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms; (3) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output. The framework also generates a measure of the effective number of parameters determined by the data. The relationship of Bayesian model comparison to recent work on prediction of generalisation ability (Guyon et al., 1992, Moody, 1992) is discussed.

In a Bayesian framework, we give a principled account of how domainspecific prior knowledge such as imperfect analytic domain theories can be optimally incorporated into networks of locally-tuned units: by choosing a specific architecture and by applying a specific training regimen. Our method proved successful in overcoming the data deficiency problem in a large-scale application to devise a neural control for a hot line rolling mill. It achieves in this application significantly higher accuracy than optimally-tuned standard algorithms such as sigmoidal backpropagation, and outperforms the state-of-the-art solution.

The Bayesian model comparison framework is reviewed, and the Bayesian Occam's razor is explained. This framework can be applied to feedforward networks, making possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms; (3) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output. The framework also generates ameasure of the effective number of parameters determined by the data. The relationship of Bayesian model comparison to recent work on prediction ofgeneralisation ability (Guyon et al., 1992, Moody, 1992) is discussed.

In a Bayesian framework, we give a principled account of how domainspecific priorknowledge such as imperfect analytic domain theories can be optimally incorporated into networks of locally-tuned units: by choosing a specific architecture and by applying a specific training regimen. Our method proved successful in overcoming the data deficiency problem in a large-scale application to devise a neural control for a hot line rolling mill. It achieves in this application significantly higher accuracy than optimally-tuned standard algorithms such as sigmoidal backpropagation, and outperforms the state-of-the-art solution.

A quantitative and practical Bayesian framework is described for learning of mappings in feedforward networks. The framework makes possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures, (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures, (3) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms or additive regularizers (for penalizing large weights, etc.), (4) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model, (5) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output, and (6) objective comparisons with alternative learning and interpolation models such as splines and radial basis functions. The Bayesian "evidence" automatically embodies "Occam's razor," penalizing overflexible and overcomplex models. The Bayesian approach helps detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. For learning models well matched to a problem, a good correlation between generalization ability and the Bayesian evidence is obtained.

We argue that the problem of plan recognition, inferring an agent's plan from observations, is largely a problem of inference under conditions of uncertainty. We present an approach to the plan recognition problem that is based on Bayesian probability theory. In attempting to solve a plan recognition problem we first retrieve candidate explanations. These explanations (sometimes only the most promising ones) are assembled into a plan recognition Bayesian network, which is a representation of a probability distribution over the set of possible explanations. We perform Bayesian updating to choose the most likely interpretation for the set of observed actions.

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This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabilistic expert systems. We extend the basic method to handle missing data and hidden (latent) variables. We show how to perform probabilistic inference by averaging over the inferences of multiple belief networks.