The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics. While such models are often easy to simulate from, parameter estimation remains challenging. Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a promising way forward, but existing methods typically require large training datasets or complex architectures and frequently yield confidence (credible) regions that fail to attain their nominal values, raising doubts on the reliability of estimates for the very features that motivate the use of these models. To address these challenges, we propose a fast and accurate, sample-efficient SBI framework for amortized posterior inference applicable to intractable stochastic processes. The proposed approach relies on two main steps: first, we learn the posterior density by decomposing it sequentially across parameter dimensions. Then, we use Chebyshev polynomial approximations to efficiently generate independent posterior samples, enabling accurate inference even when Markov chain Monte Carlo methods mix poorly. We further develop novel diagnostic tools for SBI in this context, as well as post-hoc calibration techniques; the latter not only lead to performance improvements of the learned inferential tool, but also to the ability to reuse it directly with new time series of varying lengths, thus amortizing the training cost. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness on trawl processes, a class of flexible infinitely divisible models that generalize univariate Gaussian processes, applied to energy demand data.

As an example, consider the problem of tracking an autonomous robot with an unknown starting position in a d d grid (Figure 1). Suppose the agent's policy is known, and an observer sees that the agent moved a step without colliding into a wall. This information indicates how the observer should update their beliefs about the agent's position. Tracking these belief states can be challenging when they are either continuous or too large to enumerate (Solinas et al., 2023)--even when the agent's policy and the environment dynamics are known. A common approach frames belief state modeling as a Bayesian filtering problem in which a posterior is maintained and updated with each new observation. Classical Bayesian filters, such as the Kalman Filter (Kalman, 1960) and its nonlinear variants (e.g., Extended and Unscented Kalman Filters (Sorenson, 1985; Julier & Uhlmann, 2004)), assume that the underlying distributions are unimodal and approximately Gaussian. While computationally efficient, this limits their applicability in settings that do not satisfy these assumptions.

The Learning With Disagreements (LeWiDi) 2025 shared task aims to model annotator disagreement through soft label distribution prediction and perspectivist evaluation, which focuses on modeling individual annotators. We adapt DisCo (Distribution from Context), a neural architecture that jointly models item-level and annotator-level label distributions, and present detailed analysis and improvements. In this paper, we extend DisCo by introducing annotator metadata embeddings, enhancing input representations, and multi-objective training losses to capture disagreement patterns better. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate substantial improvements in both soft and perspectivist evaluation metrics across three datasets. We also conduct in-depth calibration and error analyses that reveal when and why disagreement-aware modeling improves. Our findings show that disagreement can be better captured by conditioning on annotator demographics and by optimizing directly for distributional metrics, yielding consistent improvements across datasets.

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of uncertainty-aware image reconstruction methods. Current generative model-based methods seek to quantify the inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty on the underlying image for given measurements by learning to sample from the posterior distribution of the underlying image. On the other hand, Bayesian neural network-based approaches aim to quantify the model (epistemic) uncertainty on the parameters of a deep neural network-based reconstruction method by approximating the posterior distribution of those parameters. Unfortunately, an ongoing need for an inversion method that can jointly quantify complex aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty patterns still persists. In this paper, we present a scalable framework that can quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. The proposed framework accepts an existing generative model-based posterior sampling method as an input and introduces an epistemic uncertainty quantification capability through Bayesian neural networks with latent variables and deep ensembling. Furthermore, by leveraging the conformal prediction methodology, the proposed framework can be easily calibrated to ensure rigorous uncertainty quantification. We evaluated the proposed framework on magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography, and image inpainting problems and showed that the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates produced by the proposed framework display the characteristic features of true epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that the use of conformal prediction on top of the proposed framework enables marginal coverage guarantees consistent with frequentist principles.

This study presents a novel small-area estimation framework to enhance urban transportation planning through detailed characterization of travel behavior. Our approach improves on the four-step travel model by employing publicly available microdata files and machine learning methods to predict travel behavior for a representative, synthetic population at small geographic areas. This approach enables high-resolution estimation of trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and route assignment. Validation using ACS/PUMS work-commute datasets demonstrates that our framework achieves higher accuracy compared to conventional approaches. The resulting granular insights enable the tailoring of interventions to address localized situations and support a range of policy applications and targeted interventions, including the optimal placement of micro-fulfillment centers, effective curb-space management, and the design of more inclusive transportation solutions particularly for vulnerable communities.

Modeling radio frequency (RF) signal propagation is essential for understanding the environment, as RF signals offer valuable insights beyond the capabilities of RGB cameras, which are limited by the visible-light spectrum, lens coverage, and occlusions. It is also useful for supporting wireless diagnosis, deployment, and optimization. However, accurately predicting RF signals in complex environments remains a challenge due to interactions with obstacles such as absorption and reflection. We introduce Diffusion^2, a diffusion-based approach that uses 3D point clouds to model the propagation of RF signals across a wide range of frequencies, from Wi-Fi to millimeter waves. To effectively capture RF-related features from 3D data, we present the RF-3D Encoder, which encapsulates the complexities of 3D geometry along with signal-specific details. These features undergo multi-scale embedding to simulate the actual RF signal dissemination process. Our evaluation, based on synthetic and real-world measurements, demonstrates that Diffusion^2 accurately estimates the behavior of RF signals in various frequency bands and environmental conditions, with an error margin of just 1.9 dB and 27x faster than existing methods, marking a significant advancement in the field. Refer to https://rfvision-project.github.io/ for more information.

We study the problem active sequential hypothesis testing, also known as pure exploration: given a new task, the learner adaptively collects data from the environment to efficiently determine an underlying correct hypothesis. A classical instance of this problem is the task of identifying the best arm in a multi-armed bandit problem (a.k.a. BAI, Best-Arm Identification), where actions index hypotheses. Another important case is generalized search, a problem of determining the correct label through a sequence of strategically selected queries that indirectly reveal information about the label. In this work, we introduce In-Context Pure Exploration (ICPE), which meta-trains Transformers to map observation histories to query actions and a predicted hypothesis, yielding a model that transfers in-context. At inference time, ICPE actively gathers evidence on new tasks and infers the true hypothesis without parameter updates. Across deterministic, stochastic, and structured benchmarks, including BAI and generalized search, ICPE is competitive with adaptive baselines while requiring no explicit modeling of information structure. Our results support Transformers as practical architectures for general sequential testing.

Identifying the structure of a partially observed causal system is essential to various scientific fields. Recent advances have focused on constraint-based causal discovery to solve this problem, and yet in practice these methods often face challenges related to multiple testing and error propagation. These issues could be mitigated by a score-based method and thus it has raised great attention whether there exists a score-based greedy search method that can handle the partially observed scenario. In this work, we propose the first score-based greedy search method for the identification of structure involving latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we propose Generalized N Factor Model and establish the global consistency: the true structure including latent variables can be identified up to the Markov equivalence class by using score. We then design Latent variable Greedy Equivalence Search (LGES), a greedy search algorithm for this class of model with well-defined operators, which search very efficiently over the graph space to find the optimal structure. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-life data validate the effectiveness of our method (code will be publicly available).

Accurate and timely prediction of crash severity is crucial in mitigating the severe consequences of traffic accidents. Accurate and timely prediction of crash severity is crucial in mitigating the severe consequences of traffic accidents. In order to provide appropriate levels of medical assistance and transportation services, an intelligent transportation system relies on effective prediction methods. Deep learning models have gained popularity in this domain due to their capability to capture non-linear relationships among variables. In this research, we have implemented a hybrid CNN-RNN deep learning model for crash severity prediction and compared its performance against widely used statistical and machine learning models such as logistic regression, naïve bayes classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), decision tree, and individual deep learning models: RNN and CNN. This study employs a methodology that considers the interconnected relationships between various features of traffic accidents. The study was conducted using a dataset of 15,870 accident records gathered over a period of seven years between 2015 and 2021 on Virginia highway I-64. The findings demonstrate that the proposed CNN-RNN hybrid model has outperformed all benchmark models in terms of predicting crash severity. This result illustrates the effectiveness of the hybrid model as it combines the advantages of both RNN and CNN models in order to achieve greater accuracy in the prediction process.

Abstract: Addressing the core problem of insufficient trustworthiness in industrial fault diagnosis, stemming from the limitations of existing methods -- both traditional and deep learning - based -- in terms of interpretability, generalization, and uncertainty quantification, this paper proposes a trustworthy industrial fault diagnosis architecture, the Hierarchical Cognitive Arbitration Architecture (HCAA), which integrates probabilistic models with Large Language Models (LLMs). The architecture conducts a preliminary analysis via a diagnostic engine based on a Bayesian network and features an LLM - driven cognitive arbitration module with multimodal input capabilities. This module performs expert - level arbitration on the initial diagnosis by analyzing structured features and diagnostic charts, holding the priority to make the final decision upon detecting conflicts. To ensure the reliability of the system's output, the architecture integrates a confidence calibration module based on Temperature Scaling and a risk assessment module, which objectively quantify system trustworthiness using metrics like Expected Calibration Error (ECE). Experimental results on a dataset containing multiple fault types demonstrate that the proposed framework improves diagnostic accuracy by over 28 percentage points compared to baseline models, while the post - calibration ECE is reduced by more than 75%. Case studies confirm that the HCAA effectively corrects misjudgments from traditional models caused by complex feature patterns or knowledge gaps, providing a novel and practical engineering solution for building high - trust, explainable AI diagnostic systems for industrial applications. Keywords: Industrial Fault Diagnosis; Large Language Model (LLM); Hierarchical Cognitive Arbitration; Probabilistic Model; Confidence Calibration; Trustworthy AI 1. Introduction With the deep development of Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing concepts, modern industrial systems are evolving towards high levels of automation and intelligence. In this process, the reliability and safety of equipment have become key factors determining production efficiency and operational costs. Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), as a core technology, plays an indispensable role in improving equipment reliability, reducing unplanned downtime, and optimizing maintenance costs by monitoring equipment status in real - time, diagnosing potential faults, and predicting remaining useful life [1], [2].