We present a bound on the generalisation error of linear classifiers in terms of a refined margin quantity on the training set. The result is obtained in a PAC-Bayesian framework and is based on geometrical arguments in the space of linear classifiers. The new bound constitutes an exponential improvement of the so far tightest margin bound by Shawe-Taylor et al. [8] and scales logarithmically in the inverse margin. Even in the case of less training examples than input dimensions sufficiently large margins lead to nontrivial bound values and - for maximum margins - to a vanishing complexity term. Furthermore, the classical margin is too coarse a measure for the essential quantity that controls the generalisation error: the volume ratio between the whole hypothesis space and the subset of consistent hypotheses.

Learning of a smooth but nonparametric probability density can be regularized using methods of Quantum Field Theory. We implement a field theoretic prior numerically, test its efficacy, and show that the free parameter of the theory (,smoothness scale') can be determined self consistently by the data; this forms an infinite dimensional generalization of the MDL principle. Finally, we study the implications of one's choice of the prior and the parameterization and conclude that the smoothness scale determination makes density estimation very weakly sensitive to the choice of the prior, and that even wrong choices can be advantageous for small data sets. One of the central problems in learning is to balance'goodness of fit' criteria against the complexity of models. An important development in the Bayesian approach was thus the realization that there does not need to be any extra penalty for model complexity: if we compute the total probability that data are generated by a model, there is a factor from the volume in parameter space-the'Occam factor' -that discriminates against models with more parameters [1, 2].

Bayesian networks are graphical representations of probability distributions. In virtually all of the work on learning these networks, the assumption is that we are presented with a data set consisting of randomly generated instances from the underlying distribution. In many situations, however, we also have the option of active learning, where we have the possibility of guiding the sampling process by querying for certain types of samples. This paper addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of Bayesian networks in an active learning setting. We provide a theoretical framework for this problem, and an algorithm that chooses which active learning queries to generate based on the model learned so far. We present experimental results showing that our active learning algorithm can significantly reduce the need for training data in many situations.

Subsequently, SVMs have been modified to handle regression [12] and GPs have been adapted to the problem of classification [8]. Both schemes essentially work in the same function space that is characterised by kernels (SVM) and covariance functions (GP), respectively. While the formal similarity of the two methods is striking the underlying paradigms of inference are very different. The SVM was inspired by results from statistical/PAC learning theory while GPs are usually considered in a Bayesian framework. This ideological clash can be viewed as a continuation in machine learning of the by now classical disagreement between Bayesian and frequentistic statistics.

A central issue in principal component analysis (PCA) is choosing the number of principal components to be retained. By interpreting PCA as density estimation, we show how to use Bayesian model selection to estimate the true dimensionality of the data. The resulting estimate is simple to compute yet guaranteed to pick the correct dimensionality, given enough data. The estimate involves an integral over the Steifel manifold of k-frames, which is difficult to compute exactly. But after choosing an appropriate parameterization and applying Laplace's method, an accurate and practical estimator is obtained. In simulations, it is convincingly better than cross-validation and other proposed algorithms, plus it runs much faster.

We use graphical models to explore the question of how people learn simple causal relationships from data. The two leading psychological theories can both be seen as estimating the parameters of a fixed graph. We argue that a complete account of causal induction should also consider how people learn the underlying causal graph structure, and we propose to model this inductive process as a Bayesian inference. Our argument is supported through the discussion of three data sets. 1 Introduction Causality plays a central role in human mental life. Our behavior depends upon our understanding of the causal structure of our environment, and we are remarkably good at inferring causation from mere observation. Constructing formal models of causal induction is currently a major focus of attention in computer science [7], psychology [3,6], and philosophy [5]. This paper attempts to connect these literatures, by framing the debate between two major psychological theories in the computational language of graphical models. We show that existing theories equate human causal induction with maximum likelihood parameter estimation on a fixed graphical structure, and we argue that to fully account for human behavioral data, we must also postulate that people make Bayesian inferences about the underlying causal graph structure itself.

We present an algorithm that samples the hypothesis space of kernel classifiers. Given a uniform prior over normalised weight vectors and a likelihood based on a model of label noise leads to a piecewise constant posterior that can be sampled by the kernel Gibbs sampler (KGS). The KGS is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that chooses a random direction in parameter space and samples from the resulting piecewise constant density along the line chosen. The KGS can be used as an analytical tool for the exploration of Bayesian transduction, Bayes point machines, active learning, and evidence-based model selection on small data sets that are contaminated with label noise. For a simple toy example we demonstrate experimentally how a Bayes point machine based on the KGS outperforms an SVM that is incapable of taking into account label noise. 1 Introduction Two great ideas have dominated recent developments in machine learning: the application of kernel methods and the popularisation of Bayesian inference.

The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam's Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent to Gaussian Processes, and always find Occam's Razor at work. 1 Introduction Occam's Razor is a well known principle of "parsimony of explanations" which is influential in scientific thinking in general and in problems of statistical inference in particular. In this paper we review its consequences for Bayesian statistical models, where its behaviour can be easily demonstrated and quantified.

We estimate a statistical model of typical activities from a large set of 3D periodic human motion data by segmenting these data automatically into "cycles". Then the mean and the principal components of the cycles are computed using a new algorithm that accounts for missing information and enforces smooth transitions between cycles. The learned temporal model provides a prior probability distribution over human motions that can be used in a Bayesian framework for tracking human subjects in complex monocular video sequences and recovering their 3D motion. 1 Introduction The modeling and tracking of human motion in video is important for problems as varied as animation, video database search, sports medicine, and human-computer interaction. Technically, the human body can be approximated by a collection of articulated limbs and its motion can be thought of as a collection of time-series describing the joint angles as they evolve over time. A key challenge in modeling these joint angles involves decomposing the time-series into suitable temporal primitives.

Prior knowledge about video structure can be used both as a means to improve the peiformance of content analysis and to extract features that allow semantic classification. We introduce statistical models for two important components of this structure, shot duration and activity, and demonstrate the usefulness of these models by introducing a Bayesian formulation for the shot segmentation problem. The new formulations is shown to extend standard thresholding methods in an adaptive and intuitive way, leading to improved segmentation accuracy.