Antarctica contains the most fertile meteorite hunting grounds on Earth. The pristine, dry and cold environment ensures that meteorites deposited there are preserved for long periods. Subsequent glacial flow of the ice sheets where they land concentrates them in particular areas. To date, most meteorites recovered throughout history have been done so in Antarctica in the last 20 years. Furthermore, they are less likely to be contaminated by terrestrial compounds.

The human figure exhibits complex and rich dynamic behavior that is both nonlinear and time-varying. Effective models of human dynamics can be learned from motion capture data using switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) models. We present results for human motion synthesis, classification, and visual tracking using learned SLDS models. Since exact inference in SLDS is intractable, we present three approximate inference algorithms and compare their performance. In particular, a new variational inference algorithm is obtained by casting the SLDS model as a Dynamic Bayesian Network. Classification experiments show the superiority of SLDS over conventional HMM's for our problem domain.

We propose a method of approximate dynamic programming for Markov decision processes (MDPs) using algebraic decision diagrams (ADDs). We produce near-optimal value functions and policies with much lower time and space requirements than exact dynamic programming. Our method reduces the sizes of the intermediate value functions generated during value iteration by replacing the values at the terminals of the ADD with ranges of values. Our method is demonstrated on a class of large MDPs (with up to 34 billion states), and we compare the results with the optimal value functions.

We present a simple sparse greedy technique to approximate the maximum a posteriori estimate of Gaussian Processes with much improved scaling behaviour in the sample size m.

One way to approximate inference in richly-connected graphical models is to apply the sum-product algorithm (a.k.a. The sum-product algorithm can be directly applied in Gaussian networks and in graphs for coding, but for many conditional probability functions - including the sigmoid function - direct application of the sum-product algorithm is not possible. We introduce "accumulator networks" that have low local complexity (but exponential global complexity) so the sum-product algorithm can be directly applied. In an accumulator network, the probability of a child given its parents is computed by accumulating the inputs from the parents in a Markov chain or more generally a tree. After giving expressions for inference and learning in accumulator networks, we give results on the "bars problem" and on the problem of extracting translated, overlapping faces from an image. 1 Introduction Graphical probability models with hidden variables are capable of representing complex dependencies between variables, filling in missing data and making Bayesoptimal decisions using probabilistic inferences (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Pearl 1988; Neal 1992).

How should we decide among competing explanations of a cognitive process given limited observations? The problem of model selection is at the heart of progress in cognitive science. In this paper, Minimum Description Length (MDL) is introduced as a method for selecting among computational models of cognition. We also show that differential geometry provides an intuitive understanding of what drives model selection in MDL. Finally, adequacy of MDL is demonstrated in two areas of cognitive modeling.

We introduce the mixture of Gaussian processes (MGP) model which is useful for applications in which the optimal bandwidth of a map is input dependent. The MGP is derived from the mixture of experts model and can also be used for modeling general conditional probability densities. We discuss how Gaussian processes -in particular in form of Gaussian process classification, the support vector machine and the MGP modelcan be used for quantifying the dependencies in graphical models. 1 Introduction Gaussian processes are typically used for regression where it is assumed that the underlying function is generated by one infinite-dimensional Gaussian distribution (i.e.

This paper presents a unified probabilistic framework for denoising and dereverberation of speech signals. The framework transforms the denoising and dereverberation problems into Bayes-optimal signal estimation. The key idea is to use a strong speech model that is pre-trained on a large data set of clean speech. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variational EM, working in the frequency domain, and employing conjugate priors. The framework covers both single and multiple microphones. We apply this approach to noisy reverberant speech signals and get results substantially better than standard methods.

Two well known classes of unsupervised procedures that can be cast in this manner are generative and recoding models. In a generative unsupervised framework, the environment generates training exampleswhich we will refer to as observations-by sampling from one distribution; the other distribution is embodied in the model. Examples of generative frameworks are mixtures of Gaussians (MoG) [2], factor analysis [4], and Boltzmann machines [8]. In the recoding unsupervised framework, the model transforms points from an obser- vation space to an output space, and the output distribution is compared either to a reference distribution or to a distribution derived from the output distribution. An example is independent component analysis (leA) [11], a method that discovers a representation of vector-valued observations in which the statistical dependence among the vector elements in the output space is minimized.

A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. As such, they induce seemingly complex dependencies among the latter. In recent years, much attention has been devoted to the development of algorithms for learning parameters, and in some cases structure, in the presence of hidden variables. In this paper, we address the related problem of detecting hidden variables that interact with the observed variables.