We describe a computer system that provides a real-time musical accompanimentfor a live soloist in a piece of non-improvised music for soloist and accompaniment. A Bayesian network is developed thatrepresents the joint distribution on the times at which the solo and accompaniment notes are played, relating the two parts through a layer of hidden variables. The network is first constructed usingthe rhythmic information contained in the musical score. The network is then trained to capture the musical interpretations ofthe soloist and accompanist in an off-line rehearsal phase. During live accompaniment the learned distribution of the network is combined with a real-time analysis of the soloist's acoustic signal, performedwith a hidden Markov model, to generate a musically principledaccompaniment that respects all available sources of knowledge. A live demonstration will be provided.

Discriminative classifiers model the posterior p(ylx)directly, or learn a direct map from inputs x to the class labels. There are several compelling reasons for using discriminative rather than generative classifiers, oneof which, succinctly articulated by Vapnik [6], is that "one should solve the [classification] problem directly and never solve a more general problem as an intermediate step [such as modeling p(xly)]." Indeed, leaving aside computational issues and matters such as handling missing data, the prevailing consensus seems to be that discriminative classifiers are almost always to be preferred to generative ones. Anotherpiece of prevailing folk wisdom is that the number of examples needed to fit a model is often roughly linear in the number of free parameters of a model. This has its theoretical basis in the observation that for "many" models, the VC dimension is roughly linear or at most some low-order polynomial in the number of parameters (see, e.g., [1, 3]), and it is known that sample complexity in the discriminative setting is linear in the VC dimension [6]. In this paper, we study empirically and theoretically the extent to which these beliefs are true. A parametric family of probabilistic models p(x, y) can be fit either to optimize the joint likelihood of the inputs and the labels, or fit to optimize the conditional likelihood p(ylx), or even fit to minimize the 0-1 training error obtained by thresholding p(ylx) to make predictions.

We are interested in the mechanisms by which individuals monitor and adjust their performance of simple cognitive tasks. We model a speeded discrimination task in which individuals are asked to classify a sequence of stimuli (Jones & Braver, 2001). Response conflict arises when one stimulus class is infrequent relative to another, resulting in more errors and slower reaction times for the infrequent class. How do control processes modulatebehavior based on the relative class frequencies? We explain performance from a rational perspective that casts the goal of individuals as minimizing a cost that depends both on error rate and reaction time.With two additional assumptions of rationality--that class prior probabilities are accurately estimated and that inference is optimal subject to limitations on rate of information transmission--we obtain a good fit to overall RT and error data, as well as trial-by-trial variations in performance.

We present an algorithm that induces a class of models with thin junction trees--models that are characterized by an upper bound on the size of the maximal cliques of their triangulated graph. By ensuring that the junction tree is thin, inference in our models remains tractable throughout the learning process. This allows both an efficient implementation of an iterative scaling parameter estimation algorithm and also ensures that inference can be performed efficiently with the final model. We illustrate the approach with applications in handwritten digit recognition and DNA splice site detection.

Statistical learning and probabilistic inference techniques are used to infer thehand position of a subject from multi-electrode recordings of neural activityin motor cortex. First, an array of electrodes provides training dataof neural firing conditioned on hand kinematics. We learn a nonparametric representationof this firing activity using a Bayesian model and rigorously compare it with previous models using cross-validation. Second, we infer a posterior probability distribution over hand motion conditioned on a sequence of neural test data using Bayesian inference. The learned firing models of multiple cells are used to define a non-Gaussian likelihood term which is combined with a prior probability for the kinematics. A particle filtering method is used to represent, update, and propagate the posterior distribution over time. The approach is compared withtraditional linear filtering methods; the results suggest that it may be appropriate for neural prosthetic applications.

We present a principled and efficient planning algorithm for cooperative multiagent dynamicsystems. A striking feature of our method is that the coordination and communication between the agents is not imposed, but derived directly from the system dynamics and function approximation architecture. We view the entire multiagentsystem as a single, large Markov decision process (MDP), which we assume can be represented in a factored way using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN).The action space of the resulting MDP is the joint action space of the entire set of agents. Our approach is based on the use of factored linear value functions as an approximation to the joint value function. This factorization of the value function allows the agents to coordinate their actions at runtime using a natural message passing scheme. We provide a simple and efficient method for computing such an approximate value function by solving a single linear program, whosesize is determined by the interaction between the value function structure and the DBN. We thereby avoid the exponential blowup in the state and action space. We show that our approach compares favorably with approaches based on reward sharing. We also show that our algorithm is an efficient alternative tomore complicated algorithms even in the single agent case.

Multisensory response enhancement (MRE) is the augmentation of the response of a neuron to sensory input of one modality by simultaneous inputfrom another modality. The maximum likelihood (ML) model presented here modifies the Bayesian model for MRE (Anastasio et al.) by incorporating a decision strategy to maximize the number of correct decisions. Thus the ML model can also deal with the important tasks of stimulus discrimination and identification inthe presence of incongruent visual and auditory cues. It accounts for the inverse effectiveness observed in neurophysiological recordingdata, and it predicts a functional relation between uni-and bimodal levels of discriminability that is testable both in neurophysiological and behavioral experiments.

Over the last years, particle filters have been applied with great success to a variety of state estimation problems. We present a statistical approach to increasing the efficiency of particle filters by adapting the size of sample sets on-the-fly. The key idea of the KLD-sampling method is to bound the approximation error introduced by the sample-based representation of the particle filter. The name KLD-sampling is due to the fact that we measure the approximation error by the Kullback-Leibler distance. Our adaptation approach chooses a small number of samples if the density is focused on a small part of the state space, and it chooses a large number of samples if the state uncertainty is high. Both the implementation and computation overhead of this approach are small. Extensive experiments using mobile robot localization as a test application show that our approach yields drastic improvements over particle filters with fixed sample set sizes and over a previously introduced adaptation technique.

Recent approaches have used uncertainty over the vocabulary of symbols in a multinomial distribution as a means of accounting for sparsity. We present a Bayesian approach that allows weak prior knowledge, in the form of a small set of approximate candidate vocabularies, to be used to dramatically improve the resulting estimates. We demonstrate these improvements in applications to text compression andestimating distributions over words in newsgroup data. 1 Introduction Sparse multinomial distributions arise in many statistical domains, including natural languageprocessing and graphical models. Consequently, a number of approaches toparameter estimation for sparse multinomial distributions have been suggested [3]. These approaches tend to be domain-independent: they make little use of prior knowledge about a specific domain. In many domains where multinomial distributionsare estimated there is often at least weak prior knowledge about' the potential structure of distributions, such as a set of hypotheses about restricted vocabularies from which the symbols might be generated. Such knowledge can be solicited from experts or obtained from unlabeled data. We present a method for Bayesian_parameter estimation in sparse discrete domains that exploits this weak form of prior knowledge to improve estimates over knowledge-free approaches.

The adaptive TAP Gibbs free energy for a general densely connected probabilistic model with quadratic interactions and arbritary single site constraints is derived. We show how a specific sequential minimization of the free energy leads to a generalization of Minka's expectation propagation. Lastly,we derive a sparse representation version of the sequential algorithm. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on classification anddensity estimation with Gaussian processes and on an independent componentanalysis problem.