This article reports on an extensive survey and analysis of research work related to machine learning as it applies to automated planning over the past 30 years. Major research contributions are broadly characterized by learning method and then descriptive subcategories. Survey results reveal learning techniques that have extensively been applied and a number that have received scant attention. We extend the survey analysis to suggest promising avenues for future research in learning based on both previous experience and current needs in the planning community.

Bayesian belief networks have grown to prominence because they provide compact representations for many problems for which probabilistic inference is appropriate, and there are algorithms to exploit this compactness. The next step is to allow compact representations of the conditional probabilities of a variable given its parents. In this paper we present such a representation that exploits contextual independence in terms of parent contexts; which variables act as parents may depend on the value of other variables. The internal representation is in terms of contextual factors (confactors) that is simply a pair of a context and a table. The algorithm, contextual variable elimination, is based on the standard variable elimination algorithm that eliminates the non-query variables in turn, but when eliminating a variable, the tables that need to be multiplied can depend on the context. This algorithm reduces to standard variable elimination when there is no contextual independence structure to exploit. We show how this can be much more efficient than variable elimination when there is structure to exploit. We explain why this new method can exploit more structure than previous methods for structured belief network inference and an analogous algorithm that uses trees.

Although many algorithms have been designed to construct Bayesian network structures using different approaches and principles, they all employ only two methods: those based on independence criteria, and those based on a scoring function and a search procedure (although some methods combine the two). Within the score+search paradigm, the dominant approach uses local search methods in the space of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the usual choices for defining the elementary modifications (local changes) that can be applied are arc addition, arc deletion, and arc reversal. In this paper, we propose a new local search method that uses a different search space, and which takes account of the concept of equivalence between network structures: restricted acyclic partially directed graphs (RPDAGs). In this way, the number of different configurations of the search space is reduced, thus improving efficiency. Moreover, although the final result must necessarily be a local optimum given the nature of the search method, the topology of the new search space, which avoids making early decisions about the directions of the arcs, may help to find better local optima than those obtained by searching in the DAG space. Detailed results of the evaluation of the proposed search method on several test problems, including the well-known Alarm Monitoring System, are also presented.

In this paper we introduce a new sparseness inducing prior which does not involve any (hyper)parameters that need to be adjusted or estimated. Although other applications are possible, we focus here on supervised learning problems: regression and classification. Experiments with several publicly available benchmark data sets show that the proposed approach yields state-of-the-art performance. In particular, our method outperforms support vector machines and performs competitively with the best alternative techniques, both in terms of error rates and sparseness, although it involves no tuning or adjusting of sparsenesscontrolling hyper-parameters.

The mutual information of two random variables z and J with joint probabilities {7rij} is commonly used in learning Bayesian nets as well as in many other fields. The chances 7rij are usually estimated by the empirical sampling frequency nij In leading to a point estimate J(nij In) for the mutual information. To answer questions like "is J (nij In) consistent with zero?" or "what is the probability that the true mutual information is much larger than the point estimate?"

Recent approaches have used uncertainty over the vocabulary of symbols in a multinomial distribution as a means of accounting for sparsity. We present a Bayesian approach that allows weak prior knowledge, in the form of a small set of approximate candidate vocabularies, to be used to dramatically improve the resulting estimates. We demonstrate these improvements in applications to text compression and estimating distributions over words in newsgroup data.

This paper presents a method for obtaining class membership probability estimates for multiclass classification problems by coupling the probability estimates produced by binary classifiers. This is an extension for arbitrary code matrices of a method due to Hastie and Tibshirani for pairwise coupling of probability estimates. Experimental results with Boosted Naive Bayes show that our method produces calibrated class membership probability estimates, while having similar classification accuracy as loss-based decoding, a method for obtaining the most likely class that does not generate probability estimates.

This paper presents an unsupervised learning algorithm that can derive the probabilistic dependence structure of parts of an object (a moving human body in our examples) automatically from unlabeled data. The distinguished part of this work is that it is based on unlabeled data, i.e., the training features include both useful foreground parts and background clutter and the correspondence between the parts and detected features are unknown. We use decomposable triangulated graphs to depict the probabilistic independence of parts, but the unsupervised technique is not limited to this type of graph. In the new approach, labeling of the data (part assignments) is taken as hidden variables and the EM algorithm is applied. A greedy algorithm is developed to select parts and to search for the optimal structure based on the differential entropy of these variables. The success of our algorithm is demonstrated by applying it to generate models of human motion automatically from unlabeled real image sequences.

We present an extension to the Mixture of Experts (ME) model, where the individual experts are Gaussian Process (GP) regression models. Using an input-dependent adaptation of the Dirichlet Process, we implement a gating network for an infinite number of Experts. Inference in this model may be done efficiently using a Markov Chain relying on Gibbs sampling. The model allows the effective covariance function to vary with the inputs, and may handle large datasets - thus potentially overcoming two of the biggest hurdles with GP models.

Narayanan and Jurafsky (1998) proposed that human language comprehension can be modeled by treating human comprehenders as Bayesian reasoners, and modeling the comprehension process with Bayesian decision trees. In this paper we extend the Narayanan and Jurafsky model to make further predictions about reading time given the probability of difference parses or interpretations, and test the model against reading time data from a psycholinguistic experiment.