We measure the ability of human observers to predict the next datum in a sequence that is generated by a simple statistical process undergoing change at random points in time. Accurate performance in this task requires the identification of changepoints. We assess individual differences between observers both empirically, and using two kinds of models: a Bayesian approach for change detection and a family of cognitively plausible fast and frugal models. Some individuals detect too many changes and hence perform sub-optimally due to excess variability. Other individuals do not detect enough changes, and perform sub-optimally because they fail to notice short-term temporal trends.

The Octopus arm is a highly versatile and complex limb. How the Octopus controlssuch a hyper-redundant arm (not to mention eight of them!) is as yet unknown. Robotic arms based on the same mechanical principles mayrender present day robotic arms obsolete. In this paper, we tackle this control problem using an online reinforcement learning algorithm, basedon a Bayesian approach to policy evaluation known as Gaussian process temporal difference (GPTD) learning. Our substitute for the real arm is a computer simulation of a 2-dimensional model of an Octopus arm. Even with the simplifications inherent to this model, the state space we face is a high-dimensional one. We apply a GPTDbased algorithmto this domain, and demonstrate its operation on several learning tasks of varying degrees of difficulty.

Ridge regression can "fix" such problems numerically,

Nested sampling is a new Monte Carlo method by Skilling [1] intended forgeneral Bayesian computation. Nested sampling provides a robust alternative to annealing-based methods for computing normalizing constants. It can also generate estimates of other quantities such as posterior expectations. The key technical requirement isan ability to draw samples uniformly from the prior subject to a constraint on the likelihood. We provide a demonstration withthe Potts model, an undirected graphical model.

We consider the scaling of the number of examples necessary to achieve good performance in distributed, cooperative, multi-agent reinforcement learning, as a function of the the number of agents n. We prove a worstcase lowerbound showing that algorithms that rely solely on a global reward signal to learn policies confront a fundamental limit: They require anumber of real-world examples that scales roughly linearly in the number of agents. For settings of interest with a very large number of agents, this is impractical. We demonstrate, however, that there is a class of algorithms that, by taking advantage of local reward signals in large distributed Markov Decision Processes, are able to ensure good performance witha number of samples that scales as O(log n). This makes them applicable even in settings with a very large number of agents n.

The observed physiological dynamics of an infant receiving intensive care are affected by many possible factors, including interventions to the baby, the operation of the monitoring equipment and the state of health. The Factorial Switching Kalman Filter can be used to infer the presence ofsuch factors from a sequence of observations, and to estimate the true values where these observations have been corrupted. We apply this model to clinical time series data and show it to be effective in identifying a number of artifactual and physiological patterns.

Active learners alleviate the burden of labeling large amounts of data by detecting and asking the user to label only the most informative examples in the domain. We focus here on active learning for multi-view domains, in which there are several disjoint subsets of features (views), each of which is sufficient to learn the target concept. In this paper we make several contributions. First, we introduce Co-Testing, which is the first approach to multi-view active learning. Second, we extend the multi-view learning framework by also exploiting weak views, which are adequate only for learning a concept that is more general/specific than the target concept. Finally, we empirically show that Co-Testing outperforms existing active learners on a variety of real world domains such as wrapper induction, Web page classification, advertisement removal, and discourse tree parsing.

Efficient representations and solutions for large decision problems with continuous and discrete variables are among the most important challenges faced by the designers of automated decision support systems. In this paper, we describe a novel hybrid factored Markov decision process (MDP) model that allows for a compact representation of these problems, and a new hybrid approximate linear programming (HALP) framework that permits their efficient solutions. The central idea of HALP is to approximate the optimal value function by a linear combination of basis functions and optimize its weights by linear programming. We analyze both theoretical and computational aspects of this approach, and demonstrate its scale-up potential on several hybrid optimization problems.

In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring sentence-internal temporal relations. Temporal inference is relevant for practical NLP applications which either extract or synthesize temporal information (e.g., summarisation, question answering). Our method bypasses the need for manual coding by exploiting the presence of markers like ``after", which overtly signal a temporal relation. We first show that models trained on main and subordinate clauses connected with a temporal marker achieve good performance on a pseudo-disambiguation task simulating temporal inference (during testing the temporal marker is treated as unseen and the models must select the right marker from a set of possible candidates). Secondly, we assess whether the proposed approach holds promise for the semi-automatic creation of temporal annotations. Specifically, we use a model trained on noisy and approximate data (i.e., main and subordinate clauses) to predict intra-sentential relations present in TimeBank, a corpus annotated rich temporal information. Our experiments compare and contrast several probabilistic models differing in their feature space, linguistic assumptions and data requirements. We evaluate performance against gold standard corpora and also against human subjects.

We present a novel framework for integrating prior knowledge into discriminative classifiers. Our framework allows discriminative classifiers such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to utilize prior knowledge specified in the generative setting. The dual objective of fitting the data and respecting prior knowledge is formulated as a bilevel program, which is solved (approximately) via iterative application of second-order cone programming. To test our approach, we consider the problem of using WordNet (a semantic database of English language) to improve low-sample classification accuracy of newsgroup categorization. WordNet is viewed as an approximate, but readily available source of background knowledge, and our framework is capable of utilizing it in a flexible way.