Sets", we consider the problem of retrieving items from a concept or cluster, given a query consisting of a few items from that cluster. We formulate this as a Bayesian inference problem and describe a very simple algorithm for solving it. Our algorithm uses a modelbased concept of a cluster and ranks items using a score which evaluates the marginal probability that each item belongs to a cluster containing the query items. For exponential family models with conjugate priors this marginal probability is a simple function of sufficient statistics. We focus on sparse binary data and show that our score can be evaluated exactly using a single sparse matrix multiplication, making it possible to apply our algorithm to very large datasets. We evaluate our algorithm on three datasets: retrieving movies from EachMovie, finding completions of author sets from the NIPS dataset, and finding completions of sets of words appearing in the Grolier encyclopedia.

Linear text classification algorithms work by computing an inner product between a test document vector and a parameter vector. In many such algorithms, including naive Bayes and most TFIDF variants, the parameters are determined by some simple, closed-form, function of training set statistics; we call this mapping mapping from statistics to parameters, the parameter function. Much research in text classification over the last few decades has consisted of manual efforts to identify better parameter functions. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for automatically learning this function from related classification problems. The parameter function found by our algorithm then defines a new learning algorithm for text classification, which we can apply to novel classification tasks. We find that our learned classifier outperforms existing methods on a variety of multiclass text classification tasks.

We derive a Bayesian Ideal Observer (BIO) for detecting motion and solving the correspondence problem. We obtain Barlow and Tripathy's classic model as an approximation. Our psychophysical experiments show that the trends of human performance are similar to the Bayesian Ideal, but overall human performance is far worse. We investigate ways to degrade the Bayesian Ideal but show that even extreme degradations do not approach human performance. Instead we propose that humans perform motion tasks using generic, general purpose, models of motion. We perform more psychophysical experiments which are consistent with humans using a Slow-and-Smooth model and which rule out an alternative model using Slowness.

We design a new learning algorithm for the Set Covering Machine from a PAC-Bayes perspective and propose a PAC-Bayes risk bound which is minimized for classifiers achieving a non trivial margin-sparsity tradeoff.

Long-distance language modeling is important not only in speech recognition and machine translation, but also in high-dimensional discrete sequence modeling in general. However, the problem of context length has almost been neglected so far and a naïve bag-of-words history has been employed in natural language processing. In contrast, in this paper we view topic shifts within a text as a latent stochastic process to give an explicit probabilistic generative model that has partial exchangeability. We propose an online inference algorithm using particle filters to recognize topic shifts to employ the most appropriate length of context automatically. Experiments on the BNC corpus showed consistent improvement over previous methods involving no chronological order.

We consider the scaling of the number of examples necessary to achieve good performance in distributed, cooperative, multi-agent reinforcement learning, as a function of the the number of agents n. We prove a worstcase lower bound showing that algorithms that rely solely on a global reward signal to learn policies confront a fundamental limit: They require a number of real-world examples that scales roughly linearly in the number of agents. For settings of interest with a very large number of agents, this is impractical. We demonstrate, however, that there is a class of algorithms that, by taking advantage of local reward signals in large distributed Markov Decision Processes, are able to ensure good performance with a number of samples that scales as O(log n). This makes them applicable even in settings with a very large number of agents n.

We considered a gamma distribution of interspike intervals as a statistical model for neuronal spike generation. The model parameters consist of a time-dependent firing rate and a shape parameter that characterizes spiking irregularities of individual neurons. Because the environment changes with time, observed data are generated from the time-dependent firing rate, which is an unknown function. A statistical model with an unknown function is called a semiparametric model, which is one of the unsolved problem in statistics and is generally very difficult to solve. We used a novel method of estimating functions in information geometry to estimate the shape parameter without estimating the unknown function. We analytically obtained an optimal estimating function for the shape parameter independent of the functional form of the firing rate. This estimation is efficient without Fisher information loss and better than maximum likelihood estimation.

There have been many graph-based approaches for semi-supervised classification. One problem is that of hyperparameter learning: performance depends greatly on the hyperparameters of the similarity graph, transformation of the graph Laplacian and the noise model. We present a Bayesian framework for learning hyperparameters for graph-based semisupervised classification. Given some labeled data, which can contain inaccurate labels, we pose the semi-supervised classification as an inference problem over the unknown labels. Expectation Propagation is used for approximate inference and the mean of the posterior is used for classification. The hyperparameters are learned using EM for evidence maximization. We also show that the posterior mean can be written in terms of the kernel matrix, providing a Bayesian classifier to classify new points. Tests on synthetic and real datasets show cases where there are significant improvements in performance over the existing approaches.

We present a competitive analysis of some nonparametric Bayesian algorithms in a worst-case online learning setting, where no probabilistic assumptions about the generation of the data are made. We consider models which use a Gaussian process prior (over the space of all functions) and provide bounds on the regret (under the log loss) for commonly used nonparametric Bayesian algorithms -- including Gaussian regression and logistic regression -- which show how these algorithms can perform favorably under rather general conditions. These bounds explicitly handle the infinite dimensionality of these nonparametric classes in a natural way. We also make formal connections to the minimax and minimum description length (MDL) framework. Here, we show precisely how Bayesian Gaussian regression is a minimax strategy.

Nested sampling is a new Monte Carlo method by Skilling [1] intended for general Bayesian computation. Nested sampling provides a robust alternative to annealing-based methods for computing normalizing constants. It can also generate estimates of other quantities such as posterior expectations. The key technical requirement is an ability to draw samples uniformly from the prior subject to a constraint on the likelihood. We provide a demonstration with the Potts model, an undirected graphical model.