We present a competitive analysis of Bayesian learning algorithms in the online learning setting and show that many simple Bayesian algorithms (such as Gaussian linear regression and Bayesian logistic regression) perform favorably when compared, in retrospect, to the single best model in the model class. The analysis does not assume that the Bayesian algorithms' modeling assumptions are "correct," and our bounds hold even if the data is adversarially chosen. For Gaussian linear regression (using logloss), our error bounds are comparable to the best bounds in the online learning literature, and we also provide a lower bound showing that Gaussian linear regression is optimal in a certain worst case sense. We also give bounds for some widely used maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation algorithms, including regularized logistic regression.

In this paper we present a framework for using multi-layer perceptron (MLP) networks in nonlinear generative models trained by variational Bayesian learning. The nonlinearity is handled by linearizing it using a Gauss-Hermite quadrature at the hidden neurons.

Statistical approaches to language learning typically focus on either short-range syntactic dependencies or long-range semantic dependencies between words. We present a generative model that uses both kinds of dependencies, and can be used to simultaneously find syntactic classes and semantic topics despite having no representation of syntax or semantics beyond statistical dependency. This model is competitive on tasks like part-of-speech tagging and document classification with models that exclusively use short-and long-range dependencies respectively.

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integrators accumulating evidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new information, i.e. what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic representation of probabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implementing a variant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilistic, and can be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].

Choice-based conjoint analysis builds models of consumer preferences over products with answers gathered in questionnaires. Our main goal is to bring tools from the machine learning community to solve this problem more efficiently. Thus, we propose two algorithms to quickly and accurately estimate consumer preferences.

Spike sorting involves clustering spike trains recorded by a microelectrode according to the source neuron. It is a complicated problem, which requires a lot of human labor, partly due to the non-stationary nature of the data. We propose an automated technique for the clustering of non-stationary Gaussian sources in a Bayesian framework. At a first search stage, data is divided into short time frames and candidate descriptions of the data as a mixture of Gaussians are computed for each frame. At a second stage transition probabilities between candidate mixtures are computed, and a globally optimal clustering is found as the MAP solution of the resulting probabilistic model. Transition probabilities are computed using local stationarity assumptions and are based on a Gaussian version of the Jensen-Shannon divergence. The method was applied to several recordings. The performance appeared almost indistinguishable from humans in a wide range of scenarios, including movement, merges, and splits of clusters.

First-order Markov models have been successfully applied to many problems, for example in modeling sequential data using Markov chains, and modeling control problems using the Markov decision processes (MDP) formalism. If a first-order Markov model's parameters are estimated from data, the standard maximum likelihood estimator considers only the first-order (single-step) transitions. But for many problems, the firstorder conditional independence assumptions are not satisfied, and as a result the higher order transition probabilities may be poorly approximated. Motivated by the problem of learning an MDP's parameters for control, we propose an algorithm for learning a first-order Markov model that explicitly takes into account higher order interactions during training. Our algorithm uses an optimization criterion different from maximum likelihood, and allows us to learn models that capture longer range effects, but without giving up the benefits of using first-order Markov models. Our experimental results also show the new algorithm outperforming conventional maximum likelihood estimation in a number of control problems where the MDP's parameters are estimated from data.

In this paper we propose a probabilistic model for online document clustering. We use nonparametric Dirichlet process prior to model the growing number of clusters, and use a prior of general English language model as the base distribution to handle the generation of novel clusters. Furthermore, cluster uncertainty is modeled with a Bayesian Dirichletmultinomial distribution. We use empirical Bayes method to estimate hyperparameters based on a historical dataset. Our probabilistic model is applied to the novelty detection task in Topic Detection and Tracking (TDT) and compared with existing approaches in the literature.

As animals interact with their environments, they must constantly update estimates about their states. Bayesian models combine prior probabilities, a dynamical model and sensory evidence to update estimates optimally. These models are consistent with the results of many diverse psychophysical studies. However, little is known about the neural representation and manipulation of such Bayesian information, particularly in populations of spiking neurons. We consider this issue, suggesting a model based on standard neural architecture and activations. We illustrate the approach on a simple random walk example, and apply it to a sensorimotor integration task that provides a particularly compelling example of dynamic probabilistic computation. Bayesian models have been used to explain a gamut of experimental results in tasks which require estimates to be derived from multiple sensory cues.

This paper analyzes generalization of the classic Rescorla-Wagner (R-W) learning algorithm and studies their relationship to Maximum Likelihood estimation of causal parameters. We prove that the parameters of two popular causal models, P and P C, can be learnt by the same generalized linear Rescorla-Wagner (GLRW) algorithm provided genericity conditions apply. We characterize the fixed points of these GLRW algorithms and calculate the fluctuations about them, assuming that the input is a set of i.i.d.