Boosting is a well-known method for improving the accuracy of many learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel boosting algorithm, VipBoost (voting on boosting classifications from imputed learning sets), which first generates multiple incomplete datasets from the original dataset by randomly removing a small percentage of observed attribute values, then uses an imputer to fill in the missing values.  It then applies AdaBoost (using some base learner) to produce classifiers trained on each of the imputed learning sets, to produce multiple classifiers. The subsequent prediction on a new test case is the most frequent classification from these classifiers. Our empirical results show that VipBoost produces very effective classifiers that significantly improve accuracy for unstable base learners and some stable learners, especially when the initial dataset is incomplete.

Instance classification using machine learning techniques has numerous applications, from automation to medical diagnosis. In many problem domains, such as spam filtering, classification must be performed quickly across large datasets. In this paper we begin with machine learning techniques based on the naive Bayes classification and attempt to improve classification performance by taking into account attribute confidence intervals.  Our prediction functions operate over nominal datasets and retain the asymptotic complexity of one-pass learning and prediction functions. We present preliminary results indicating a modest, albeit inconsistent improvement over the naive Bayes classifier alone.

Wikipedia is a goldmine of information; not just for its many readers, but also for the growing community of researchers who recognize it as a resource of exceptional scale and utility. It represents a vast investment of manual effort and judgment: a huge, constantly evolving tapestry of concepts and relations that is being applied to a host of tasks. This article provides a comprehensive description of this work. It focuses on research that extracts and makes use of the concepts, relations, facts and descriptions found in Wikipedia, and organizes the work into four broad categories: applying Wikipedia to natural language processing; using it to facilitate information retrieval and information extraction; and as a resource for ontology building. The article addresses how Wikipedia is being used as is, how it is being improved and adapted, and how it is being combined with other structures to create entirely new resources. We identify the research groups and individuals involved, and how their work has developed in the last few years. We provide a comprehensive list of the open-source software they have produced.

In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process' behaviour to be partly unknown. Then we use Walley's theory of coherent lower previsions, a generalisation of the Bayesian theory to imprecision, to derive the rule to update beliefs under incompleteness that logically follows from our assumptions, and that we call conservative inference rule. This rule has some remarkable properties: it is an abstract rule to update beliefs that can be applied in any situation or domain; it gives us the opportunity to be neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic about the incompleteness process, which is a necessary condition to draw reliable while strong enough conclusions; and it is a coherent rule, in the sense that it cannot lead to inconsistencies. We give examples to show how the new rule can be applied in expert systems, in parametric statistical inference, and in pattern classification, and discuss more generally the view of incompleteness processes defended here as well as some of its consequences.

Open Source Software (OSS) often relies on large repositories, like SourceForge, for initial incubation. The OSS repositories offer a large variety of meta-data providing interesting information about projects and their success. In this paper we propose a data mining approach for training classifiers on the OSS meta-data provided by such data repositories. The classifiers learn to predict the successful continuation of an OSS project. The `successfulness' of projects is defined in terms of the classifier confidence with which it predicts that they could be ported in popular OSS projects (such as FreeBSD, Gentoo Portage).

This paper presents a new method for inferring the semantic properties of documents by leveraging free-text keyphrase annotations. Such annotations are becoming increasingly abundant due to the recent dramatic growth in semi-structured, user-generated online content. One especially relevant domain is product reviews, which are often annotated by their authors with pros/cons keyphrases such as ``a real bargain'' or ``good value.'' These annotations are representative of the underlying semantic properties; however, unlike expert annotations, they are noisy: lay authors may use different labels to denote the same property, and some labels may be missing. To learn using such noisy annotations, we find a hidden paraphrase structure which clusters the keyphrases. The paraphrase structure is linked with a latent topic model of the review texts, enabling the system to predict the properties of unannotated documents and to effectively aggregate the semantic properties of multiple reviews. Our approach is implemented as a hierarchical Bayesian model with joint inference. We find that joint inference increases the robustness of the keyphrase clustering and encourages the latent topics to correlate with semantically meaningful properties. Multiple evaluations demonstrate that our model substantially outperforms alternative approaches for summarizing single and multiple documents into a set of semantically salient keyphrases.

The relationship between Popper spaces (conditional probability spaces that satisfy some regularity conditions), lexicographic probability systems (LPS's), and nonstandard probability spaces (NPS's) is considered. If countable additivity is assumed, Popper spaces and a subclass of LPS's are equivalent; without the assumption of countable additivity, the equivalence no longer holds. If the state space is finite, LPS's are equivalent to NPS's. However, if the state space is infinite, NPS's are shown to be more general than LPS's.

We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conservative model selection. Our findings complement those of Knight and Fu (2000) and Fan and Li (2001). We show that the distributions are typically highly nonnormal regardless of how the estimator is tuned, and that this property persists in large samples. The uniform convergence rate of these estimators is also obtained, and is shown to be slower than 1/root(n) in case the estimator is tuned to perform consistent model selection. An impossibility result regarding estimation of the estimators' distribution function is also provided.

This papers develops a logical language for representing probabilistic causal laws. Our interest in such a language is twofold. First, it can be motivated as a fundamental study of the representation of causal knowledge. Causality has an inherent dynamic aspect, which has been studied at the semantical level by Shafer in his framework of probability trees. In such a dynamic context, where the evolution of a domain over time is considered, the idea of a causal law as something which guides this evolution is quite natural. In our formalization, a set of probabilistic causal laws can be used to represent a class of probability trees in a concise, flexible and modular way. In this way, our work extends Shafer's by offering a convenient logical representation for his semantical objects. Second, this language also has relevance for the area of probabilistic logic programming. In particular, we prove that the formal semantics of a theory in our language can be equivalently defined as a probability distribution over the well-founded models of certain logic programs, rendering it formally quite similar to existing languages such as ICL or PRISM. Because we can motivate and explain our language in a completely self-contained way as a representation of probabilistic causal laws, this provides a new way of explaining the intuitions behind such probabilistic logic programs: we can say precisely which knowledge such a program expresses, in terms that are equally understandable by a non-logician. Moreover, we also obtain an additional piece of knowledge representation methodology for probabilistic logic programs, by showing how they can express probabilistic causal laws.

The class of chain event graph models is a generalisation of the class of discrete Bayesian networks, retaining most of the structural advantages of the Bayesian network for model interrogation, propagation and learning, while more naturally encoding asymmetric state spaces and the order in which events happen. In this paper we demonstrate how with complete sampling, conjugate closed form model selection based on product Dirichlet priors is possible, and prove that suitable homogeneity assumptions characterise the product Dirichlet prior on this class of models. We demonstrate our techniques using two educational examples.