Uncertainty is omnipresent when we perceive or interact with our environment, and the Bayesian framework provides computational methods for dealing with it. Mathematical models for Bayesian decision making typically require datastructures that are hard to implement in neural networks. This article shows that even the simplest and experimentally best supported type of synaptic plasticity, Hebbian learning, in combination with a sparse, redundant neural code, can in principle learn to infer optimal Bayesian decisions. We present a concrete Hebbian learning rule operating on log-probability ratios. Modulated by reward-signals, this Hebbian plasticity rule also provides a new perspective for understanding how Bayesian inference could support fast reinforcement learning in the brain. In particular we show that recent experimental results by Yang and Shadlen [1] on reinforcement learning of probabilistic inference in primates can be modeled in this way.

A fundamental objective in reinforcement learning is the maintenance of a proper balance between exploration and exploitation. This problem becomes more challenging when the agent can only partially observe the states of its environment. In this paper we propose a dual-policy method for jointly learning the agent behavior and the balance between exploration exploitation, in partially observable environments. The method subsumes traditional exploration, in which the agent takes actions to gather information about the environment, and active learning, in which the agent queries an oracle for optimal actions (with an associated cost for employing the oracle). The form of the employed exploration is dictated by the specific problem. Theoretical guarantees are provided concerning the optimality of the balancing of exploration and exploitation. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by experimental results on benchmark problems.

We devise a graphical model that supports the process of debugging software by guiding developers to code that is likely to contain defects. The model is trained using execution traces of passing test runs; it reflects the distribution over transitional patterns of code positions. Given a failing test case, the model determines the least likely transitional pattern in the execution trace. The model is designed such that Bayesian inference has a closed-form solution. We evaluate the Bernoulli graph model on data of the software projects AspectJ and Rhino.

The problem of approximating a given probability distribution using a simpler distribution plays an important role in several areas of machine learning, e.g. variational inference and classification. Within this context, we consider the task of learning a mixture of tree distributions. Although mixtures of trees can be learned by minimizing the KL-divergence using an EM algorithm, its success depends heavily on the initialization. We propose an efficient strategy for obtaining a good initial set of trees that attempts to cover the entire observed distribution by minimizing the $\alpha$-divergence with $\alpha = \infty$. We formulate the problem using the fractional covering framework and present a convergent sequential algorithm that only relies on solving a convex program at each iteration. Compared to previous methods, our approach results in a significantly smaller mixture of trees that provides similar or better accuracies. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by learning pictorial structures for face recognition.

We present a novel method for inducing synchronous context free grammars (SCFGs) from a corpus of parallel string pairs. SCFGs can model equivalence between strings in terms of substitutions, insertions and deletions, and the reordering of sub-strings. We develop a non-parametric Bayesian model and apply it to a machine translation task, using priors to replace the various heuristics commonly used in this field. Using a variational Bayes training procedure, we learn the latent structure of translation equivalence through the induction of synchronous grammar categories for phrasal translations, showing improvements in translation performance over previously proposed maximum likelihood models.

Markov random fields (MRF's), or undirected graphical models, provide a powerful frameworkfor modeling complex dependencies among random variables. Maximum likelihood learning in MRF's is hard due to the presence of the global normalizing constant. In this paper we consider a class of stochastic approximation algorithmsof the Robbins-Monro type that use Markov chain Monte Carlo to do approximate maximum likelihood learning. We show that using MCMC operators basedon tempered transitions enables the stochastic approximation algorithm to better explore highly multimodal distributions, which considerably improves parameter estimates in large, densely-connected MRF's. Our results on MNIST and NORB datasets demonstrate that we can successfully learn good generative models of high-dimensional, richly structured data that perform well on digit and object recognition tasks.

Finding maximally sparse representations from overcomplete feature dictionaries frequently involves minimizing a cost function composed of a likelihood (or data fit) term and a prior (or penalty function) that favors sparsity. While typically the prior is factorial, here we examine non-factorial alternatives that have a number of desirable properties relevant to sparse estimation and are easily implemented using an efficient, globally-convergent reweighted $\ell_1$ minimization procedure. The first method under consideration arises from the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework. Although based on a highly non-convex underlying cost function, in the context of canonical sparse estimation problems, we prove uniform superiority of this method over the Lasso in that, (i) it can never do worse, and (ii) for any dictionary and sparsity profile, there will always exist cases where it does better. These results challenge the prevailing reliance on strictly convex penalty functions for finding sparse solutions. We then derive a new non-factorial variant with similar properties that exhibits further performance improvements in empirical tests. For both of these methods, as well as traditional factorial analogs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of reweighted $\ell_1$-norm algorithms in handling more general sparse estimation problems involving classification, group feature selection, and non-negativity constraints. As a byproduct of this development, a rigorous reformulation of sparse Bayesian classification (e.g., the relevance vector machine) is derived that, unlike the original, involves no approximation steps and descends a well-defined objective function.

Imaging techniques such as optical imaging of intrinsic signals, 2-photon calcium imaging and voltage sensitive dye imaging can be used to measure the functional organization of visual cortex across different spatial scales. Here, we present Bayesian methods based on Gaussian processes for extracting topographic maps from functional imaging data. In particular, we focus on the estimation of orientation preference maps (OPMs) from intrinsic signal imaging data. We model the underlying map as a bivariate Gaussian process, with a prior covariance function that reflects known properties of OPMs, and a noise covariance adjusted to the data. The posterior mean can be interpreted as an optimally smoothed estimate of the map, and can be used for model based interpolations of the map from sparse measurements. By sampling from the posterior distribution, we can get error bars on statistical properties such as preferred orientations, pinwheel locations or -counts. Finally, the use of an explicit probabilistic model facilitates interpretation of parameters and provides the basis for decoding studies. We demonstrate our model both on simulated data and on intrinsic signaling data from ferret visual cortex.

Almost all successful machine learning algorithms and cognitive models require powerful representations capturing the features that are relevant to a particular problem. We draw on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian statistics to define a rational model of human feature learning that forms a featural representation from raw sensory data without pre-specifying the number of features. By comparing how the human perceptual system and our rational model use distributional and category information to infer feature representations, we seek to identify some of the forces that govern the process by which people separate and combine sensory primitives to form features.

We describe an application of probabilistic modeling and inference technology to the problem of analyzing sensor data in the setting of an intensive care unit (ICU). In particular, we consider the arterial-line blood pressure sensor, which is subject to frequent data artifacts that cause false alarms in the ICU and make the raw data almost useless for automated decision making. The problem is complicated by the fact that the sensor data are averaged over fixed intervals whereas the events causing data artifacts may occur at any time and often have durations significantly shorter than the data collection interval. We show that careful modeling of the sensor, combined with a general technique for detecting sub-interval events and estimating their duration, enables detection of artifacts and accurate estimation of the underlying blood pressure values. Our model's performance identifying artifacts is superior to two other classifiers' and about as good as a physician's.