In an interlinked corpus of documents, the context in which a citation appears provides extra information about the cited document. However, associating terms in the context to the cited document remains an open problem. We propose a novel document generation approach that statistically incorporates the context in which a document links to another document. We quantitatively show that the proposed generation scheme explains the linking phenomenon better than previous approaches. The context information along with the actual content of the document provides significant improvements over the previous approaches for various real world evaluation tasks such as link prediction and log-likelihood estimation on unseen content. The proposed method is more scalable to large collection of documents compared to the previous approaches.

Many problems require repeated inference on probabilistic graphical models, with different values for evidence variables or other changes. Examples of such problems include utility maximization, MAP inference, online and interactive inference, parameter and structure learning, and dynamic inference. Since small changes to the evidence typically only affect a small region of the network, repeatedly performing inference from scratch can be massively redundant. In this paper, we propose expanding frontier belief propagation (EFBP), an efficient approximate algorithm for probabilistic inference with incremental changes to the evidence (or model). EFBP is an extension of loopy belief propagation (BP) where each run of inference reuses results from the previous ones, instead of starting from scratch with the new evidence; messages are only propagated in regions of the network affected by the changes. We provide theoretical guarantees bounding the difference in beliefs generated by EFBP and standard BP, and apply EFBP to the problem of expected utility maximization in influence diagrams. Experiments on viral marketing and combinatorial auction problems show that EFBP can converge much faster than BP without significantly affecting the quality of the solutions.

Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is one of the most popular data clustering methods which can be viewed as a linear combination of different Gaussian components. In GMM, each cluster obeys Gaussian distribution and the task of clustering is to group observations into different components through estimating each cluster's own parameters. The Expectation-Maximization algorithm is always involved in such estimation problem. However, many previous studies have shown naturally occurring data may reside on or close to an underlying submanifold. In this paper, we consider the case where the probability distribution is supported on a submanifold of the ambient space. We take into account the smoothness of the conditional probability distribution along the geodesics of data manifold. That is, if two observations are close in intrinsic geometry, their distributions over different Gaussian components are similar. Simply speaking, we introduce a novel method based on manifold structure for data clustering, called Locally Consistent Gaussian Mixture Model (LCGMM). Specifically, we construct a nearest neighbor graph and adopt Kullback-Leibler Divergence as the distance measurement to regularize the objective function of GMM. Experiments on several data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of such regularization.

We propose Dirichlet Process mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DP-GLM), a new method of nonparametric regression that accommodates continuous and categorical inputs, and responses that can be modeled by a generalized linear model. We prove conditions for the asymptotic unbiasedness of the DP-GLM regression mean function estimate. We also give examples for when those conditions hold, including models for compactly supported continuous distributions and a model with continuous covariates and categorical response. We empirically analyze the properties of the DP-GLM and why it provides better results than existing Dirichlet process mixture regression models. We evaluate DP-GLM on several data sets, comparing it to modern methods of nonparametric regression like CART, Bayesian trees and Gaussian processes. Compared to existing techniques, the DP-GLM provides a single model (and corresponding inference algorithms) that performs well in many regression settings.

There is a growing need for scalable semantic web repositories which support inference and provide efficient queries. There is also a growing interest in representing uncertain knowledge in semantic web datasets and ontologies. In this paper, I present a bit vector schema specifically designed for RDF (Resource Description Framework) datasets. I propose a system for materializing and storing inferred knowledge using this schema. I show experimental results that demonstrate that this solution simplifies inference queries and drastically improves results. I also propose and describe a solution for materializing and persisting uncertain information and probabilities. Thresholds and bit vectors are used to provide efficient query access to this uncertain knowledge. My goal is to provide a semantic web repository that supports knowledge inference, uncertainty reasoning, and Bayesian networks, without sacrificing performance or scalability.

bnlearn is an R package which includes several algorithms for learning the structure of Bayesian networks with either discrete or continuous variables. Both constraint-based and score-based algorithms are implemented, and can use the functionality provided by the snow package to improve their performance via parallel computing. Several network scores and conditional independence algorithms are available for both the learning algorithms and independent use. Advanced plotting options are provided by the Rgraphviz package.

Activity recognition plays an important role in many areas such as smart environments by offering unprecedented opportunities for assisted living, automation, security and energy efficiency. It’s also an essential component for planning and plan recognition in smart environments. One challenge of activity recognition is the need for collecting and annotating huge amounts of data for each new physical setting in order to be able to carry out the conventional activity discovery and recognition algorithms. This extensive initial phase of data collection and annotation results in a prolonged installation process and excessive time investment for each new space. In this paper we propose a new method of transferring learned knowledge of activities to a new physical space in order to leverage the learning process in the new environment. Our method called ”Home to Home Transfer Learning” (HHTL) is based on using a semi EM framework and modeling activities using structural, temporal and spatial features. This method allows us to avoid the tedious task of collecting and labeling huge amounts of data in the target space, and allows for a more accelerated and more scalable deployment cycle in the real world. It also allows us to exploit the insights learned in previous spaces. To validate our algorithms, we use the data collected in several smart apartments with different physical layouts.

In this paper, we introduce Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs (BALPs), a new formalism that integrates Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) and Abductive Logic Programming (ALP) for abductive reasoning. Like BLPs, BALPs also combine first-order logic and Bayesian networks. However, unlike BLPs that use logical deduction to construct Bayes nets, BALPs employ logical abduction. As a result, BALPs are more suited for solving problems like plan/activity recognition and diagnosis that require abductive reasoning. First, we present the necessary enhancements to BLPs in order to support logical abduction. Next, we apply BALPs to the task of plan recognition and demonstrate its efficacy on two data sets. We also compare the performance of BALPs with several existing approaches for abduction.

BLOG is a powerful language to express models with an unknown number of objects and identity uncertainty. Current inference engines for BLOG are either too slow or require users to write a model-specific proposal distribution. We describe here, ongoing work to design a new, fast, generic inference engine for BLOG called blogc. The new implementation uses Gibbs sampling for finite-valued variables and performs an analysis of the model to generate customized sampling code in C. We describe our algorithms and methods in the context of various commonly used models and demonstrate significant performance improvement.

Providing energy conservation services becomes a hot research topic because more and more people attach importance to environmental protection. This research proposes a framework that consists of four process models: appliance recognition, activity-appliances model, unattended appliances detection, and energy conservation service. Appliance recognition model can recognizes the operating states of appliances from raw sensing data of electric power. An activity-appliances model has been built to associate activities with appliances according to the data of Open Mind Common Sense Project. Using the relationship between activities can help to detect unattended appliances, which are consuming electric power but not take part in the resident’s activities. After obtain information of appliance operating states and unattended appliances, residents can receive energy conservation services for notifying the energy consumption information. Finally, the experimental results show that dynamic Baysian network approach can achieve higher than 92% accuracy for appliance recognition. Data of activity-appliances model shows most appliances are strong activity-related.