Schizophrenia is a complex psychiatric disorder that has eluded a characterization in terms of local abnormalities of brain activity, and is hypothesized to affect the collective, ``emergent working of the brain. We propose a novel data-driven approach to capture emergent features using functional brain networks [Eguiluzet al] extracted from fMRI data, and demonstrate its advantage over traditional region-of-interest (ROI) and local, task-specific linear activation analyzes. Our results suggest that schizophrenia is indeed associated with disruption of global, emergent brain properties related to its functioning as a network, which cannot be explained by alteration of local activation patterns. Moreover, further exploitation of interactions by sparse Markov Random Field classifiers shows clear gain over linear methods, such as Gaussian Naive Bayes and SVM, allowing to reach 86% accuracy (over 50% baseline - random guess), which is quite remarkable given that it is based on a single fMRI experiment using a simple auditory task.

In cognitive science, empirical data collected from participants are the arbiters in model selection. Model discrimination thus depends on designing maximally informative experiments. It has been shown that adaptive design optimization (ADO) allows one to discriminate models as efficiently as possible in simulation experiments. In this paper we use ADO in a series of experiments with people to discriminate the Power, Exponential, and Hyperbolic models of memory retention, which has been a long-standing problem in cognitive science, providing an ideal setting in which to test the application of ADO for addressing questions about human cognition. Using an optimality criterion based on mutual information, ADO is able to find designs that are maximally likely to increase our certainty about the true model upon observation of the experiment outcomes. Results demonstrate the usefulness of ADO and also reveal some challenges in its implementation.

Over recent years Dirichlet processes and the associated Chinese restaurant process (CRP) have found many applications in clustering while the Indian buffet process (IBP) is increasingly used to describe latent feature models. In the clustering case, we associate to each data point a latent allocation variable. These latent variables can share the same value and this induces a partition of the data set. The CRP is a prior distribution on such partitions. In latent feature models, we associate to each data point a potentially infinite number of binary latent variables indicating the possession of some features and the IBP is a prior distribution on the associated infinite binary matrix. These prior distributions are attractive because they ensure exchangeability (over samples). We propose here extensions of these models to decomposable graphs. These models have appealing properties and can be easily learned using Monte Carlo techniques.

We present a sequence of unsupervised, nonparametric Bayesian models for clustering complex linguistic objects. In this approach, we consider a potentially infinite number of features and categorical outcomes. We evaluate these models for the task of within- and cross-document event coreference on two corpora. All the models we investigated show significant improvements when compared against an existing baseline for this task.

Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of max-margin supervised topic models for both continuous and categorical response variables. Our approach, the maximum entropy discrimination latent Dirichlet allocation (MedLDA), utilizes the max-margin principle to train supervised topic models and estimate predictive topic representations that are arguably more suitable for prediction tasks. The general principle of MedLDA can be applied to perform joint max-margin learning and maximum likelihood estimation for arbitrary topic models, directed or undirected, and supervised or unsupervised, when the supervised side information is available. We develop efficient variational methods for posterior inference and parameter estimation, and demonstrate qualitatively and quantitatively the advantages of MedLDA over likelihood-based topic models on movie review and 20 Newsgroups data sets.

Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.

There has been a lot of recent work on Bayesian methods for reinforcement learning exhibiting near-optimal online performance. The main obstacle facing such methods is that in most problems of interest, the optimal solution involves planning in an infinitely large tree. However, it is possible to obtain stochastic lower and upper bounds on the value of each tree node. This enables us to use stochastic branch and bound algorithms to search the tree efficiently. This paper proposes two such algorithms and examines their complexity in this setting.

The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required to give the conditional probabilities of the next observation. The measure $\mu$ belongs to an arbitrary but known class $C$ of stochastic process measures. We are interested in predictors $\rho$ whose conditional probabilities converge (in some sense) to the "true" $\mu$-conditional probabilities if any $\mu\in C$ is chosen to generate the sequence. The contribution of this work is in characterizing the families $C$ for which such predictors exist, and in providing a specific and simple form in which to look for a solution. We show that if any predictor works, then there exists a Bayesian predictor, whose prior is discrete, and which works too. We also find several sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of a predictor, in terms of topological characterizations of the family $C$, as well as in terms of local behaviour of the measures in $C$, which in some cases lead to procedures for constructing such predictors. It should be emphasized that the framework is completely general: the stochastic processes considered are not required to be i.i.d., stationary, or to belong to any parametric or countable family.

A central problem in artificial intelligence is that of planning to maximize future reward under uncertainty in a partially observable environment. In this paper we propose and demonstrate a novel algorithm which accurately learns a model of such an environment directly from sequences of action-observation pairs. We then close the loop from observations to actions by planning in the learned model and recovering a policy which is near-optimal in the original environment. Specifically, we present an efficient and statistically consistent spectral algorithm for learning the parameters of a Predictive State Representation (PSR). We demonstrate the algorithm by learning a model of a simulated high-dimensional, vision-based mobile robot planning task, and then perform approximate point-based planning in the learned PSR. Analysis of our results shows that the algorithm learns a state space which efficiently captures the essential features of the environment. This representation allows accurate prediction with a small number of parameters, and enables successful and efficient planning.

The development of tools to provide insight into the behavioral response of a civilian population will greatly benefit the modeling and simulation community and have potential applications across multiple user communities in the U.S. Department of Defense. We present an overview of a modular agent-based modeling framework, grounded in the human behavioral and social theory, which is intended to represent a populations’ stance on issues as a function of their changing beliefs, values and interests. We utilize and integrate theories of narrative identity [1] and planned behavior [2] with macrosociological theories of heterogeneity and influence [3][4] to model civilian behavior in a conflict ecosystem. Communication between agents takes place across a social network developed using real data about the population under consideration, and essential services are implemented as objects within the model allowing for experimentation with different courses of action for development of civil service capacity. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the model, the current state of implementation, potential use cases, and the path forward for future work.