Stacked generalization is a general method of using a high-level model to combine lower-level models to achieve greater predictive accuracy. In this paper we address two crucial issues which have been considered to be a `black art' in classification tasks ever since the introduction of stacked generalization in 1992 by Wolpert: the type of generalizer that is suitable to derive the higher-level model, and the kind of attributes that should be used as its input. We find that best results are obtained when the higher-level model combines the confidence (and not just the predictions) of the lower-level ones. We demonstrate the effectiveness of stacked generalization for combining three different types of learning algorithms for classification tasks. We also compare the performance of stacked generalization with majority vote and published results of arcing and bagging.

We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in large-scale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional probabilities of interest. They provide alternatives to approximate inference methods based on stochastic sampling or search. We describe a variational approach to the problem of diagnostic inference in the `Quick Medical Reference' (QMR) network. The QMR network is a large-scale probabilistic graphical model built on statistical and expert knowledge. Exact probabilistic inference is infeasible in this model for all but a small set of cases. We evaluate our variational inference algorithm on a large set of diagnostic test cases, comparing the algorithm to a state-of-the-art stochastic sampling method.

Causality plays an important role in our comprehension of the world. It amounts to determine what truly causes what and what it matters. Interventions allow the identification of elements in a sequence of events that are related in a causal way. In this paper, we introduce belief causation and we proposea method for handling interventions in graphical model under an uncertain environment where the uncertainty is represented by belief masses, so-called belief causal networks. More specifically, we propose a generalization of the “DO” operator and explain the needed changes on the structure of the graph to model a belief causal network on which interventions are proceeded.

Analyzing chat traffic has important applications for both the military and the civilian world. This poster will report on an effort to automatically separate chat messages into topic threads.

Temporal Nodes Bayesian Networks (TNBNs) are an alternative to Dynamic Bayesian Networks for temporal reasoning, that result in much simpler and efficient models in some domains. However, methods for learning this type of models from data have not been developed. In this paper we propose a learning algorithm to obtain the structure and temporal intervals for TNBNs from data. The method has three phases: (i) obtain an initial approximation of the intervals, (ii) obtain a structure using a standard algorithm and (iii) refine the intervals for each temporal node based on a clustering algorithm. We evaluated the method with synthetic data. Our method obtains the best score in terms of the structure and a competitive predictive accuracy.

This paper presents a novel multimodal approach to automatically detect learner’s uncertainty through the integration of multiple sensors. An acquisition protocol was established to record participants’ electrical brain activity and physiological signals while interacting with a problem solving system specifically designed for uncertainty elicitation. Data were collected from 38 subjects using 8 sensors and two video feeds. Results from machine learning classifiers support the feasibility of our approach. 81% of accuracy was reached using Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm.

Bayesian Network Classifiers are popular approaches for classification problems where instances have to be assigned to one of several classes. However, in many domains, it is necessary to assign instances to multiple classes at the same time. This task has been normally addressed either by (i) transforming the problem into a single-class scenario by defining a new class variable with all of the possible combinations of classes or, (ii) by building an independent classifier for each class variable. Either way, the resulting models do not capture all the relations and dependencies between classes and features resulting into unprecise multidimensional classifiers. In this paper, we introduce a two-step method for learning Multidimensional Bayesian Network Classifiers (MBC) from data based on mutual information measures. The first step of the method learns an initial MBC structure which then, in the second step, is refined. Our approach is simple and keeps all the interactions and dependencies among classes and features. The method was tested on three benchmark multidimensional data-sets. Preliminary experimental results show how our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods used in multidimensional classification.

For a knowledge-based system that fails to provide the correct answer, it is important to be able to tune the system while minimizing overall change in the knowledge-base. There are a variety of reasons why the answer is incorrect ranging from incorrect knowledge to information vagueness to incompleteness. Still, in all these situations, it is typically the case that most of the knowledge in the system is likely to be correct as specified by the expert(s) and/or knowledge engineer(s). In this paper, we propose a method to identify the possible changes by understanding the contribution of parameters on the outputs of concern. Our approach is based on Bayesian Knowledge Bases for modeling uncertainties. We start with single parameter changes and then extend to multiple parameters. In order to identify the optimal solution that can minimize the change to the model as specified by the domain experts, we define and evaluate the sensitivity values of the results with respect to the parameters. We discuss the computational complexities of determining the solution and show that the problem of multiple parameters changes can be transformed into Linear Programming problems, and thus, efficiently solvable. Our work can also be applied towards validating the knowledge base such that the updated model can satisfy all test-cases collected from the domain experts.

We present a novel dynamic programming approach to computing optimal policies for Markov Decision Processes compactly represented in grounded Probabilistic PDDL. Unlike other approaches, which use an intermediate representation as Dynamic Bayesian Networks, we directly exploit the PPDDL description by introducing dedicated backup rules. This provides an alternative approach to DBNs, especially when actions have highly correlated effects on variables. Indeed, we show interesting improvements on several planning domains from the International Planning Competition. Finally, we exploit the incremental flavor of our backup rules for designing promising approaches to policy revision.

The plurality of taxonomies, the group of researchers have attempted to make ITS differences amongst available features, and the techniques interactions more naturalistic and conversational. In order used have yielded a variety of approaches. Verbee et al. to accomplish this goal, researchers have analyzed corpora (2006) examined the features used by 16 dialogue act of human-human tutorial dialogues to better understand tagging studies and identified 24 features that have been both individual dialogue acts and patterns of acts that occur previously used. While an extensive discussion of these in human tutoring (Graesser & Person, 1994; Graesser, features is outside the scope of the present paper, the Person, & Magliano, 1995; Litman & Forbes-Riley, 2006; features fall loosely into four categories: word based (e.g.