In this paper, we outline a system for evaluating the performance of scientific research across a number of outcome metrics (e.g. publications, sales, new hires). Our system is designed to classify research performance into a number of metrics, evaluate each metric’s performance using only data on other metrics, and to cast predictions of future performance by metric. This study shows how data mining techniques can be used to provide a predictive analytic approach to the management of resources for scientific research.

Conversational case-based reasoning systems use an interactive dialog to retrieve stored cases. Normally the ordering of questions in this dialog is chosen based only on their discriminativeness. However, because the user may not be able to answer all questions, even highly discriminative questions are not guaranteed to provide information. This paper presents a customization method CCBR systems can apply to adjust entropy-based discriminativeness considerations by predictions of user ability to answer questions. The method uses a naive Bayesian classifier to classify users into user groups based on the questions they answer, applies information from group profiles to predict which future questions they are likely to be able to answer, and selects the next questions to ask based on a combination of information gain and response likelihood. The method was evaluated for a mix of simulated user groups, each associated with particular probabilities for answering questions about each case indexing feature, in four sample domains. For simulated users with varying abilities to answer particular questions, results showed improvement in dialog length over a non-customized entropy-based approach in all test domains.

The current paradigm in student modeling has continued to show the power of its simplifying assumption of knowledge as a binary and monotonically increasing construct, the value of which directly causes the outcome of student answers to questions. Recent efforts have focused on optimizing the prediction accuracy of responses to questions using student models. Incorporating individual student parameter interactions has been an interpretable and principled approach which has improved the performance of this task, as demonstrated by its application in the 2010 KDD Cup challenge on Educational Data. Performance prediction, however, can have limited practical utility. The greatest utility of such student models can be their ability to model the tutor and the attributes of the tutor which are causing learning. Harnessing the same simplifying assumption of learning used in student modeling, we can turn this model on its head to effectively tease out the tutor attributes causing learning and begin to optimize the tutor model to benefit the student model.

When analysing social media conversations, in search of the public opinion about an unfolding event that is be- ing discussed in real-time (e.g., presidential debates, major speeches, etc.), it is important to distinguish between two groups of participants: opinion-makers and opinion-holders. To address this problem, we propose a supervised machine-learning approach, which uses inexpensively acquired labeled data from monothematic Twitter accounts to learn a binary classifier for the labels “political account” (opinion-makers) and “non-political account” (opinion-holders). While the classifier has a 83% accuracy on individual tweets, when applied to the last 200 tweets from accounts of a set of 1000 Twitter users, it classifies accounts with a 97% accuracy. This high accuracy derives from our decision to incorporate information about classifier probability into the classification. Our work demonstrates that machine learning algorithms can play a critical role in improving the quality of social media analytics and understanding, whose importance is increasing as social media adoption becomes widespread.

Are the words that people use indicative of their personality type preferences? In this paper, it is hypothesized that word-usage is not independent of personality type, as measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality assessment tool. In-class writing samples were taken from 40 graduate students along with the MBTI. The experiment utilizes naïve Bayes classifiers and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in an attempt to guess an individual’s personality type based on their word-choice. Classification is also attempted using emotional, social, cognitive, and psychological dimensions elicited by the analysis software, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). The classifiers are evaluated with 40 distinct trials (leave-one-out cross validation), and parameters are chosen using leave-one-out cross validation of each trial’s training set. The experiment showed that the naïve Bayes classifiers (word-based and LIWC-based) outperformed the SVMs when guessing Sensing-Intuition (S-N) and Thinking-Feeling (T-F).

This work discusses the problem of sparse signal recovery when there is correlation among the values of non-zero entries. We examine intra-vector correlation in the context of the block sparse model and inter-vector correlation in the context of the multiple measurement vector model, as well as their combination. Algorithms based on the sparse Bayesian learning are presented and the benefits of incorporating correlation at the algorithm level are discussed. The impact of correlation on the limits of support recovery is also discussed highlighting the different impact intra-vector and inter-vector correlations have on such limits.

In this thesis I develop a variety of techniques to train, evaluate, and sample from intractable and high dimensional probabilistic models. Abstract exceeds arXiv space limitations -- see PDF.

Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

In this paper we build on previous work which uses inferences techniques, in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to solve parameterized control problems. We propose a number of modifications in order to make this approach more practical in general, higher-dimensional spaces. We first introduce a new target distribution which is able to incorporate more reward information from sampled trajectories. We also show how to break strong correlations between the policy parameters and sampled trajectories in order to sample more freely. Finally, we show how to incorporate these techniques in a principled manner to obtain estimates of the optimal policy.

We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. Koivisto and Sood (2004) and Koivisto (2006) presented algorithms that can compute the exact marginal posterior probability of a subnetwork, e.g., a single edge, in O(n2n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n2n) total time, assuming that the number of parents per node or the indegree is bounded by a constant. One main drawback of their algorithms is the requirement of a special structure prior that is non uniform and does not respect Markov equivalence. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that can compute the exact posterior probability of a subnetwork in O(3n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n3n) total time. Our algorithm also assumes a bounded indegree but allows general structure priors. We demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm on several data sets with up to 20 variables.