Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also inefficient for large count values and requires averaging over many samples to reduce variance. On the other hand, variational Bayesian inference is efficient and accurate for large count values but suffers from bias for small counts. We propose a hybrid algorithm that combines the best of both worlds: it samples very small counts and applies variational updates to large counts. This hybridization is shown to significantly improve testset perplexity relative to variational inference at no computational cost.

A Bayesian treatment of latent directed graph structure for non-iid data is provided where each child datum is sampled with a directed conditional dependence on a single unknown parent datum. The latent graph structure is assumed to lie in the family of directed out-tree graphs which leads to efficient Bayesian inference. The latent likelihood of the data and its gradients are computable in closed form via Tutte's directed matrix tree theorem using determinants and inverses of the out-Laplacian. This novel likelihood subsumes iid likelihood, is exchangeable and yields efficient unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms. In addition to handling taxonomy and phylogenetic datasets the out-tree assumption performs surprisingly well as a semi-parametric density estimator on standard iid datasets. Experiments with unsupervised and semisupervised learning are shown on various UCI and taxonomy datasets.

Chordal graphs can be used to encode dependency models that are representable by both directed acyclic and undirected graphs. This paper discusses a very simple and efficient algorithm to learn the chordal structure of a probabilistic model from data. The algorithm is a greedy hill-climbing search algorithm that uses the inclusion boundary neighborhood over chordal graphs. In the limit of a large sample size and under appropriate hypotheses on the scoring criterion, we prove that the algorithm will find a structure that is inclusion-optimal when the dependency model of the data-generating distribution can be represented exactly by an undirected graph. The algorithm is evaluated on simulated datasets.

We present an algorithm that identifies the reasoning patterns of agents in a game, by iteratively examining the graph structure of its Multi-Agent Influence Diagram (MAID) representation. If the decision of an agent participates in no reasoning patterns, then we can effectively ignore that decision for the purpose of calculating a Nash equilibrium for the game. In some cases, this can lead to exponential time savings in the process of equilibrium calculation. Moreover, our algorithm can be used to enumerate the reasoning patterns in a game, which can be useful for constructing more effective computerized agents interacting with humans.

The paper introduces AND/OR importance sampling for probabilistic graphical models. In contrast to importance sampling, AND/OR importance sampling caches samples in the AND/OR space and then extracts a new sample mean from the stored samples. We prove that AND/OR importance sampling may have lower variance than importance sampling; thereby providing a theoretical justification for preferring it over importance sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that AND/OR importance sampling is far more accurate than importance sampling in many cases.

It is well-known that inference in graphical models is hard in the worst case, but tractable for models with bounded treewidth. We ask whether treewidth is the only structural criterion of the underlying graph that enables tractable inference. In other words, is there some class of structures with unbounded treewidth in which inference is tractable? Subject to a combinatorial hypothesis due to Robertson et al. (1994), we show that low treewidth is indeed the only structural restriction that can ensure tractability. Thus, even for the "best case" graph structure, there is no inference algorithm with complexity polynomial in the treewidth.

Agricultural research has been profited by technical advances such as automation, data mining. Today, data mining is used in a vast areas and many off-the-shelf data mining system products and domain specific data mining application soft wares are available, but data mining in agricultural soil datasets is a relatively a young research field. The large amounts of data that are nowadays virtually harvested along with the crops have to be analyzed and should be used to their full extent. This research aims at analysis of soil dataset using data mining techniques. It focuses on classification of soil using various algorithms available. Another important purpose is to predict untested attributes using regression technique, and implementation of automated soil sample classification.

The stochastic block model is a powerful tool for inferring community structure from network topology. However, it predicts a Poisson degree distribution within each community, while most real-world networks have a heavy-tailed degree distribution. The degree-corrected block model can accommodate arbitrary degree distributions within communities. But since it takes the vertex degrees as parameters rather than generating them, it cannot use them to help it classify the vertices, and its natural generalization to directed graphs cannot even use the orientations of the edges. In this paper, we present variants of the block model with the best of both worlds: they can use vertex degrees and edge orientations in the classification process, while tolerating heavy-tailed degree distributions within communities. We show that for some networks, including synthetic networks and networks of word adjacencies in English text, these new block models achieve a higher accuracy than either standard or degree-corrected block models.

Over the past decades, statisticians and machine-learning researchers have developed literally thousands of new tools for the reduction of high-dimensional data in order to identify the variables most responsible for a particular trait. These tools have applications in a plethora of settings, including data analysis in the fields of business, education, forensics, and biology (such as microarray, proteomics, brain imaging), to name a few. In the present work, we focus our investigation on the limitations and potential misuses of certain tools in the analysis of the benchmark colon cancer data (2,000 variables; Alon et al., 1999) and the prostate cancer data (6,033 variables; Efron, 2010, 2008). Our analysis demonstrates that models that produce 100% accuracy measures often select different sets of genes and cannot stand the scrutiny of parameter estimates and model stability. Furthermore, we created a host of simulation datasets and "artificial diseases" to evaluate the reliability of commonly used statistical and data mining tools. We found that certain widely used models can classify the data with 100% accuracy without using any of the variables responsible for the disease. With moderate sample size and suitable pre-screening, stochastic gradient boosting will be shown to be a superior model for gene selection and variable screening from high-dimensional datasets.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that these problems are NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has low treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, and that they admit no provably good approximation if variables can take on an arbitrary number of states.