Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

We consider the problem of learning Bayesian network classifiers that maximize the marginover a set of classification variables. We find that this problem is harder for Bayesian networks than for undirected graphical models like maximum margin Markov networks. The main difficulty is that the parameters in a Bayesian network must satisfy additional normalization constraints that an undirected graphical model need not respect. These additional constraints complicate the optimization task. Nevertheless, we derive an effective training algorithm that solves the maximum margin training problem for a range of Bayesian network topologies, and converges to an approximate solution for arbitrary network topologies. Experimental results show that the method can demonstrate improved generalization performance over Markov networks when the directed graphical structure encodes relevant knowledge. In practice, the training technique allows one to combine prior knowledge expressed as a directed (causal) model with state of the art discriminative learning methods.

We study computational and sample complexity of parameter and structure learning in graphical models. Our main result shows that the class of factor graphs with bounded factor size and bounded connectivity can be learned in polynomial time and polynomial number of samples, assuming that the data is generated by a network in this class. This result covers both parameter estimation for a known network structure and structure learning. It implies as a corollary that we can learn factor graphs for both Bayesian networks and Markov networks of bounded degree, in polynomial time and sample complexity. Unlike maximum likelihood estimation, our method does not require inference in the underlying network, and so applies to networks where inference is intractable. We also show that the error of our learned model degrades gracefully when the generating distribution is not a member of the target class of networks.

A software library for constructing and learning probabilistic models is presented. The library offers a set of building blocks from which a large variety of static and dynamic models can be built. These include hierarchical models for variances of other variables and many nonlinear models. The underlying variational Bayesian machinery, providing for fast and robust estimation but being mathematically rather involved, is almost completely hidden from the user thus making it very easy to use the library. The building blocks include Gaussian, rectified Gaussian and mixture-of-Gaussians variables and computational nodes which can be combined rather freely.

We propose a new problem formulation which is similar to, but more informative than, the binary multiple-instance learning problem. In this setting, we are given groups of instances (described by feature vectors) along with estimates of the fraction of positively-labeled instances per group. The task is to learn an instance level classifier from this information. That is, we are trying to estimate the unknown binary labels of individuals from knowledge of group statistics. We propose a principled probabilistic model to solve this problem that accounts for uncertainty in the parameters and in the unknown individual labels. This model is trained with an efficient MCMC algorithm. Its performance is demonstrated on both synthetic and real-world data arising in general object recognition.

We introduce a novel latent grouping model for predicting the relevance of a new document to a user. The model assumes a latent group structure for both users and documents. We compared the model against a state-of-the-art method, the User Rating Profile model, where only users have a latent group structure. We estimate both models by Gibbs sampling. The new method predicts relevance more accurately for new documents that have few known ratings. The reason is that generalization over documents then becomes necessary and hence the twoway grouping is profitable.

We present a method for learning the parameters of a Bayesian network with prior knowledge about the signs of influences between variables. Our method accommodates not just the standard signs, but provides for context-specific signs as well. We show how the various signs translate into order constraints on the network parameters and how isotonic regression can be used to compute order-constrained estimates from the available data. Our experimental results show that taking prior knowledge about the signs of influences into account leads to an improved fit of the true distribution, especially when only a small sample of data is available. Moreover, the computed estimates are guaranteed to be consistent with the specified signs, thereby resulting in a network that is more likely to be accepted by experts in its domain of application.

One of the basic tasks for Bayesian networks (BNs) is that of learning a network structure from data. The BN-learning problem is NP-hard, so the standard solution is heuristic search. Many approaches have been proposed for this task, but only a very small number outperform the baseline of greedy hill-climbing with tabu lists; moreover, many of the proposed algorithms are quite complex and hard to implement. In this paper, we propose a very simple and easy-to-implement method for addressing this task. Our approach is based on the well-known fact that the best network (of bounded in-degree) consistent with a given node ordering can be found very efficiently. We therefore propose a search not over the space of structures, but over the space of orderings, selecting for each ordering the best network consistent with it. This search space is much smaller, makes more global search steps, has a lower branching factor, and avoids costly acyclicity checks. We present results for this algorithm on both synthetic and real data sets, evaluating both the score of the network found and in the running time. We show that ordering-based search outperforms the standard baseline, and is competitive with recent algorithms that are much harder to implement.

Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three calibration methods for correcting this distortion: Platt Scaling, Isotonic Regression, and Logistic Correction. We also experiment with boosting using log-loss instead of the usual exponential loss. Experiments show that Logistic Correction and boosting with log-loss work well when boosting weak models such as decision stumps, but yield poor performance when boosting more complex models such as full decision trees. Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression, however, significantly improve the probabilities predicted by

When training data is sparse, more domain knowledge must be incorporated into the learning algorithm in order to reduce the effective size of the hypothesis space. This paper builds on previous work in which knowledge about qualitative monotonicities was formally represented and incorporated into learning algorithms (e.g., Clark & Matwin's work with the CN2 rule learning algorithm). We show how to interpret knowledge of qualitative influences, and in particular of monotonicities, as constraints on probability distributions, and to incorporate this knowledge into Bayesian network learning algorithms. We show that this yields improved accuracy, particularly with very small training sets (e.g. less than 10 examples).