The importance of URLs in the representation of a document cannot be overstated. Shorthand mnemonics such as ``wiki'' or ``blog'' are often embedded in a URL to convey its functional purpose or genre. Other mnemonics have evolved from use (e.g., a Wordpress particle is strongly suggestive of blogs). Can we leverage from this predictive power to induce the genre of a document from the representation of a URL? This paper presents a methodology for webpage genre classification from URLs which, to our knowledge, has not been previously attempted. Experiments using machine learning techniques to evaluate this claim show promising results and a novel algorithm for character n-gram decomposition is provided. Such a capability could be useful to improve personalized search results, disambiguate content, efficiently crawl the Web in search of relevant documents, and construct behavioral profiles from clickstream data without parsing the entire document.

We introduce a new task-independent framework to model top-down overt visual attention based on graph-ical models for probabilistic inference and reasoning. We describe a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) that infers probability distributions over attended objects and spatial locations directly from observed data. Probabilistic inference in our model is performed over object-related functions which are fed from manual annotations of objects in video scenes or by state-of-the-art object detection models. Evaluating over ∼3 hours (appx. 315,000 eye fixations and 12,600 saccades) of observers playing 3 video games (time-scheduling, driving, and flight combat), we show that our approach is significantly more predictive of eye fixations compared to: 1) simpler classifier-based models also developed here that map a signature of a scene (multi-modal information from gist, bottom-up saliency, physical actions, and events) to eye positions, 2) 14 state-of-the-art bottom-up saliency models, and 3) brute-force algorithms such as mean eye position. Our results show that the proposed model is more effective in employing and reasoning over spatio-temporal visual data.

We present the first real-world benchmark for sequentially-optimal team formation, working within the framework of a class of online football prediction games known as Fantasy Football. We model the problem as a Bayesian reinforcement learning one, where the action space is exponential in the number of players and where the decision maker's beliefs are over multiple characteristics of each footballer. We then exploit domain knowledge to construct computationally tractable solution techniques in order to build a competitive automated Fantasy Football manager. Thus, we are able to establish the baseline performance in this domain, even without complete information on footballers' performances (accessible to human managers), showing that our agent is able to rank at around the top percentile when pitched against 2.5M human players.

Current computer involvement in adolescent social networks (youth between the ages of 11 and 17) provides new opportunities to study group dynamics, interactions amongst peers, and individual preferences. Nevertheless, most of the research in this area focuses on efficiently retrieving information that is explicit in large social networks (e.g., properties of the graph structure), but not on how to use the dynamics of the virtual social network to discover latent characteristics of the real-world social network. In this paper, we present the analysis of a game designed to take advantage of the familiarity of adolescents with online social networks, and describe how the data generated by the game can be used to identify bullies in 5th grade classrooms. We present a probabilistic model of the game and using the in-game interactions of the players (i.e., content of chat messages) infer their social role within their classroom (either a bully or non-bully). The evaluation of our model is done by using previously collected data from psychological surveys on the same 5th grade population and by comparing the performance of the new model with off-the-shelf classifiers.

Modelling the density of an infectious disease in space and time is a task generally carried out separately from the diagnosis of that disease in individuals. These two inference problems are complementary, however: diagnosis of disease can be done more accurately if prior information from a spatial risk model is employed, and in turn a disease density model can benefit from the incorporation of rich symptomatic information rather than simple counts of presumed cases of infection. We propose a unifying framework for both of these tasks, and illustrate it with the case of malaria. To do this we first introduce a state space model of malaria spread, and secondly a computer vision based system for detecting plasmodium in microscopical blood smear images, which can be run on location-aware mobile devices. We demonstrate the tractability of combining both elements and the improvement in accuracy this brings about.

Many real-world decision-theoretic planning problemsare naturally modeled using both continuous state andaction (CSA) spaces, yet little work has provided ex-act solutions for the case of continuous actions. Inthis work, we propose a symbolic dynamic program-ming (SDP) solution to obtain the optimal closed-formvalue function and policy for CSA-MDPs with mul-tivariate continuous state and actions, discrete noise,piecewise linear dynamics, and piecewise linear (or re-stricted piecewise quadratic) reward. Our key contribu-tion over previous SDP work is to show how the contin-uous action maximization step in the dynamic program-ming backup can be evaluated optimally and symboli-cally — a task which amounts to symbolic constrainedoptimization subject to unknown state parameters; wefurther integrate this technique to work with an efficientand compact data structure for SDP — the extendedalgebraic decision diagram (XADD). We demonstrateempirical results on a didactic nonlinear planning exam-ple and two domains from operations research to showthe first automated exact solution to these problems.

Probabilistic reasoning in the real-world often requires inference incontinuous variable graphical models, yet there are few methods for exact, closed-form inference when joint distributions are non-Gaussian. To address this inferential deficit, we introduce SVE -- a symbolic extension of the well-known variable elimination algorithm to perform exact inference in an expressive class of mixed discrete and continuous variable graphical models whose conditional probability functions can be well-approximated as piecewise combinations of polynomials with bounded support. Using this representation, we show that we can compute all of the SVE operations exactly and in closed-form, which crucially includes definite integration w.r.t. multivariate piecewise polynomial functions. To aid in the efficient computation and compact representation of this solution, we use an extended algebraic decision diagram (XADD) data structure that supports all SVE operations. We provide illustrative results for SVE on probabilistic inference queries inspired by robotics localization and tracking applications that mix various continuous distributions; this represents the first time a general closed-form exact solution has been proposed for this expressive class of discrete/continuous graphical models.

In this paper, we address the problem of data description using a Bayesian framework. The goal of data description is to draw a boundary around objects of a certain class of interest to discriminate that class from the rest of the feature space. Data description is also known as one-class learning and has a wide range of applications. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian framework to precisely compute the class boundary and therefore can utilize domain information in form of prior knowledge in the framework. It can also operate in the kernel space and therefore recognize arbitrary boundary shapes. Moreover, the proposed method can utilize unlabeled data in order to improve accuracy of discrimination. We evaluate our method using various real-world datasets and compare it with other state of the art approaches of data description. Experiments show promising results and improved performance over other data description and one-class learning algorithms.

This paper concerns learning and prediction with probabilistic models where the domain sizes of latent variables have no a priori upper-bound. Current approaches represent prior distributions over latent variables by stochastic processes such as the Dirichlet process, and rely on Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the model from data. We propose an alternative approach that searches over the domain size of latent variables, and allows arbitrary priors over the their domain sizes. We prove error bounds for expected probabilities, where the error bounds diminish with increasing search scope. The search algorithm can be truncated at any time . We empirically demonstrate the approach for topic modelling of text documents.

Active participation of customers in the management of demand, and renewable energy supply, is a critical goal of the Smart Grid vision. However, this is a complex problem with numerous scenarios that are difficult to test in field projects. Rich and scalable simulations are required to develop effective strategies and policies that elicit desirable behavior from customers. We present a versatile agent-based "factored model" that enables rich simulation scenarios across distinct customer types and varying agent granularity. We formally characterize the decisions to be made by Smart Grid customers as a multiscale decision-making problem and show how our factored model representation handles several temporal and contextual decisions by introducing a novel "utility optimizing agent." We further contribute innovative algorithms for (i) statistical learning-based hierarchical Bayesian timeseries simulation, and (ii) adaptive capacity control using decision-theoretic approximation of multiattribute utility functions over multiple agents. Prominent among the approaches being studied to achieve active customer participation is one based on offering customers financial incentives through variable-price tariffs; we also contribute an effective solution to the problem of "customer herding" under such tariffs. We support our contributions with experimental results from simulations based on real-world data on an open Smart Grid simulation platform.