We offer a novel view of AdaBoost in a statistical setting. We propose a Bayesian model for binary classification in which label noise is modeled hierarchically. Using variational inference to optimize a dynamic evidence lower bound, we derive a new boosting-like algorithm called VIBoost. We show its close connections to AdaBoost and give experimental results from four datasets.

Distributions over exchangeable matrices with infinitely many columns, such as the Indian buffet process, are useful in constructing nonparametric latent variable models. However, the distribution implied by such models over the number of features exhibited by each data point may be poorly- suited for many modeling tasks. In this paper, we propose a class of exchangeable nonparametric priors obtained by restricting the domain of existing models. Such models allow us to specify the distribution over the number of features per data point, and can achieve better performance on data sets where the number of features is not well-modeled by the original distribution.

Recently, prediction markets have shown considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. In this paper, agents with isoelastic utilities are considered. It is shown that the costs associated with homogeneous markets of agents with isoelastic utilities produce equilibrium prices corresponding to alpha-mixtures, with a particular form of mixing component relating to each agent's wealth. We also demonstrate that wealth accumulation for logarithmic and other isoelastic agents (through payoffs on prediction of training targets) can implement both Bayesian model updates and mixture weight updates by imposing different market payoff structures. An iterative algorithm is given for market equilibrium computation. We demonstrate that inhomogeneous markets of agents with isoelastic utilities outperform state of the art aggregate classifiers such as random forests, as well as single classifiers (neural networks, decision trees) on a number of machine learning benchmarks, and show that isoelastic combination methods are generally better than their logarithmic counterparts.

A statistical model or a learning machine is called regular if the map taking a parameter to a probability distribution is one-to-one and if its Fisher information matrix is always positive definite. If otherwise, it is called singular. In regular statistical models, the Bayes free energy, which is defined by the minus logarithm of Bayes marginal likelihood, can be asymptotically approximated by the Schwarz Bayes information criterion (BIC), whereas in singular models such approximation does not hold. Recently, it was proved that the Bayes free energy of a singular model is asymptotically given by a generalized formula using a birational invariant, the real log canonical threshold (RLCT), instead of half the number of parameters in BIC. Theoretical values of RLCTs in several statistical models are now being discovered based on algebraic geometrical methodology. However, it has been difficult to estimate the Bayes free energy using only training samples, because an RLCT depends on an unknown true distribution. In the present paper, we define a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (WBIC) by the average log likelihood function over the posterior distribution with the inverse temperature $1/\log n$, where $n$ is the number of training samples. We mathematically prove that WBIC has the same asymptotic expansion as the Bayes free energy, even if a statistical model is singular for and unrealizable by a statistical model. Since WBIC can be numerically calculated without any information about a true distribution, it is a generalized version of BIC onto singular statistical models.

Bayesian learning is often hampered by large computational expense. As a powerful generalization of popular belief propagation, expectation propagation (EP) efficiently approximates the exact Bayesian computation. Nevertheless, EP can be sensitive to outliers and suffer from divergence for difficult cases. To address this issue, we propose a new approximate inference approach, relaxed expectation propagation (REP). It relaxes the moment matching requirement of expectation propagation by adding a relaxation factor into the KL minimization. We penalize this relaxation with a $l_1$ penalty. As a result, when two distributions in the relaxed KL divergence are similar, the relaxation factor will be penalized to zero and, therefore, we obtain the original moment matching; In the presence of outliers, these two distributions are significantly different and the relaxation factor will be used to reduce the contribution of the outlier. Based on this penalized KL minimization, REP is robust to outliers and can greatly improve the posterior approximation quality over EP. To examine the effectiveness of REP, we apply it to Gaussian process classification, a task known to be suitable to EP. Our classification results on synthetic and UCI benchmark datasets demonstrate significant improvement of REP over EP and Power EP--in terms of algorithmic stability, estimation accuracy and predictive performance.

In literature there are several studies on the performance of Bayesian network structure learning algorithms. The focus of these studies is almost always the heuristics the learning algorithms are based on, i.e. the maximisation algorithms (in score-based algorithms) or the techniques for learning the dependencies of each variable (in constraint-based algorithms). In this paper we investigate how the use of permutation tests instead of parametric ones affects the performance of Bayesian network structure learning from discrete data. Shrinkage tests are also covered to provide a broad overview of the techniques developed in current literature.

We present a multi-task learning approach to jointly estimate the means of multiple independent data sets. The proposed multi-task averaging (MTA) algorithm results in a convex combination of the single-task maximum likelihood estimates. We derive the optimal minimum risk estimator and the minimax estimator, and show that these estimators can be efficiently estimated. Simulations and real data experiments demonstrate that MTA estimators often outperform both single-task and James-Stein estimators.

Bayes Classifiers are widely used currently for recognition, identification and knowledge discovery. The fields of application are, for example, image processing, medicine, chemistry (QSAR). But by mysterious way the Naive Bayes Classifier usually gives a very nice and good presentation of a recognition. It can not be improved considerably by more complex models of Bayes Classifier. We demonstrate here a very nice and simple proof of the Naive Bayes Classifier optimality, that can explain this interesting fact.The derivation in the current paper is based on arXiv:cs/0202020v1

Domain-independent planning is one of the foundational areas in the field of Artificial Intelligence. A description of a planning task consists of an initial world state, a goal, and a set of actions for modifying the world state. The objective is to find a sequence of actions, that is, a plan, that transforms the initial world state into a goal state. In optimal planning, we are interested in finding not just a plan, but one of the cheapest plans. A prominent approach to optimal planning these days is heuristic state-space search, guided by admissible heuristic functions. Numerous admissible heuristics have been developed, each with its own strengths and weaknesses, and it is well known that there is no single "best'' heuristic for optimal planning in general. Thus, which heuristic to choose for a given planning task is a difficult question. This difficulty can be avoided by combining several heuristics, but that requires computing numerous heuristic estimates at each state, and the tradeoff between the time spent doing so and the time saved by the combined advantages of the different heuristics might be high. We present a novel method that reduces the cost of combining admissible heuristics for optimal planning, while maintaining its benefits. Using an idealized search space model, we formulate a decision rule for choosing the best heuristic to compute at each state. We then present an active online learning approach for learning a classifier with that decision rule as the target concept, and employ the learned classifier to decide which heuristic to compute at each state. We evaluate this technique empirically, and show that it substantially outperforms the standard method for combining several heuristics via their pointwise maximum.

The overall goal of the data mining process is to extract information from a data set and transform it into an understandable structure for further use("data mining",Wikipedia). A soil test is the analysis of a soil sample to determine nutrient content, composition and other characteristics. Tests are usually performed to measure fertility and indicate deficiencies that need to be remedied ("Soil Test", Wikipedia).. In this research, soil dataset containing soil test results has been used to apply various classification techniques in data mining. Soil fertility is a crucial attribute which is considered for land evaluation, also achieving and maintaining necessary levels of fertility is important for nurturing crop production, hence this paper includes steps for building an efficient and accurate predictive model of soil fertility with the help of J48 algorithm.