Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financialmarkets, videos, or neural recordings are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data sets requires flexible and accurate models. In this paper, we promote Gaussian process dynamical systems as a rich model class that is appropriate for such an analysis. We present a new approximate message-passing algorithm for Bayesian state estimation and inference in Gaussian process dynamical systems, a nonparametric probabilisticgeneralization of commonly used state-space models. We derive our message-passing algorithm using Expectation Propagation and provide a unifying perspective on message passing in general state-space models. We show that existing Gaussian filters and smoothers appear as special cases within our inference framework, and that these existing approaches can be improved upon using iterated message passing. Using both synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate that iterated message passing can improve inference in a wide range of tasks in Bayesian state estimation, thus leading to improved predictions and more effective decision making.

Sparse linear (or generalized linear) models combine a standard likelihood function with a sparse prior on the unknown coefficients. These priors can conveniently be expressed as a maximization over zero-mean Gaussians with different variance hyperparameters. Standard MAP estimation (Type I) involves maximizing over both the hyperparameters and coefficients, while an empirical Bayesian alternative (Type II) first marginalizes the coefficients and then maximizes over the hyperparameters, leading to a tractable posterior approximation. The underlying cost functions can be related via a dual-space framework from Wipf et al. (2011), which allows both the Type I or Type II objectives to be expressed in either coefficient or hyperparmeter space. This perspective is useful because some analyses or extensions are more conducive to development in one space or the other. Herein we consider the estimation of a trade-off parameter balancing sparsity and data fit. As this parameter is effectively a variance, natural estimators exist by assessing the problem in hyperparameter (variance) space, transitioning natural ideas from Type II to solve what is much less intuitive for Type I. In contrast, for analyses of update rules and sparsity properties of local and global solutions, as well as extensions to more general likelihood models, we can leverage coefficient-space techniques developed for Type I and apply them to Type II. For example, this allows us to prove that Type II-inspired techniques can be successful recovering sparse coefficients when unfavorable restricted isometry properties (RIP) lead to failure of popular L1 reconstructions. It also facilitates the analysis of Type II when non-Gaussian likelihood models lead to intractable integrations.

Warped Gaussian processes (WGP) [1] model output observations in regression tasks as a parametric nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process (GP). The use of this nonlinear transformation, which is included as part of the probabilistic model, was shown to enhance performance by providing a better prior model on several data sets. In order to learn its parameters, maximum likelihood was used. In this work we show that it is possible to use a non-parametric nonlinear transformation in WGP and variationally integrate it out. The resulting Bayesian WGP is then able to work in scenarios in which the maximum likelihood WGP failed: Low data regime, data with censored values, classification, etc. We demonstrate the superior performance of Bayesian warped GPs on several real data sets.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functionsand bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach andcapability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

Formal exploration approaches in model-based reinforcement learning estimate the accuracy of the currently learned model without consideration of the empirical prediction error. For example, PAC-MDP approaches such as Rmax base their model certainty on the amount of collected data, while Bayesian approaches assume a prior over the transition dynamics. We propose extensions to such approaches which drive exploration solely based on empirical estimates of the learner's accuracy and learning progress. We provide a ``sanity check'' theoretical analysis, discussing the behavior of our extensions in the standard stationary finite state-action case. We then provide experimental studies demonstrating the robustness of these exploration measures in cases of non-stationary environments or where original approaches are misled by wrong domain assumptions.

We describe an approach to incorporating Bayesian priors in the maxq framework for hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL). We define priors on the primitive environment model and on task pseudo-rewards. Since models for composite tasks can be complex, we use a mixed model-based/model-free learning approach to find an optimal hierarchical policy. We show empirically that (i) our approach results in improved convergence over non-Bayesian baselines, given sensible priors, (ii) task hierarchies and Bayesian priors can be complementary sources of information, and using both sources is better than either alone, (iii) taking advantage of the structural decomposition induced by the task hierarchy significantly reduces the computational cost of Bayesian reinforcement learning and (iv) in this framework, task pseudo-rewards can be learned instead of being manually specified, leading to automatic learning of hierarchically optimal rather than recursively optimal policies.

We consider sequential prediction algorithms that are given the predictions from a set of models as inputs. If the nature of the data is changing over time in that different models predict well on different segments of the data, then adaptivity is typically achieved by mixing into the weights in each round a bit of the initial prior (kind of like a weak restart). However, what if the favored models in each segment are from a small subset, i.e. the data is likely to be predicted well by models that predicted well before? Curiously, fitting such ''sparse composite models'' is achieved by mixing in a bit of all the past posteriors. This self-referential updating method is rather peculiar, but it is efficient and gives superior performance on many natural data sets. Also it is important because it introduces a long-term memory: any model that has done well in the past can be recovered quickly. While Bayesian interpretations can be found for mixing in a bit of the initial prior, no Bayesian interpretation is known for mixing in past posteriors. We build atop the ''specialist'' framework from the online learning literature to give the Mixing Past Posteriors update a proper Bayesian foundation. We apply our method to a well-studied multitask learning problem and obtain a new intriguing efficient update that achieves a significantly better bound.

Mixture distributions are often used to model complex data. In this paper, we develop a new method that jointly estimates mixture models over multiple data sets by exploiting the statistical dependencies between them. Specifically, we introduce a set of latent Dirichlet processes as sources of component models (atoms), and for each data set, we construct a nonparametric mixture model by combining sub-sampled versions of the latent DPs. Each mixture model may acquire atoms from different latent DPs, while each atom may be shared by multiple mixtures. This multi-to-multi association distinguishes the proposed method from prior constructions that rely on tree or chain structures, allowing mixture models to be coupled more flexibly. In addition, we derive a sampling algorithm that jointly infers the model parameters and present experiments on both document analysis and image modeling.

We present a nonparametric Bayesian approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for multiple reward functions. Most previous IRL algorithms assume that the behaviour data is obtained from an agent who is optimizing a single reward function, but this assumption is hard to be met in practice. Our approach is based on integrating the Dirichlet process mixture model into Bayesian IRL. We provide an efficient Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm utilizing the gradient of the posterior to estimate the underlying reward functions, and demonstrate that our approach outperforms the previous ones via experiments on a number of problem domains.

The partition function plays a key role in probabilistic modeling including conditional random fields, graphical models, and maximum likelihood estimation. To optimize partition functions, this article introduces a quadratic variational upper bound. This inequality facilitates majorization methods: optimization of complicated functions through the iterative solution of simpler sub-problems. Such bounds remain efficient to compute even when the partition function involves a graphical model (with small tree-width) or in latent likelihood settings. For large-scale problems, low-rank versions of the bound are provided and outperform LBFGS as well as first-order methods. Several learning applications are shown and reduce to fast and convergent update rules. Experimental results show advantages over state-of-the-art optimization methods.