Numerical integration is an key component of many problems in scientific computing, statistical modelling, and machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature is a model-based method for numerical integration which, relative to standard Monte Carlo methods, offers increased sample efficiency and a more robust estimate of the uncertainty in the estimated integral. We propose a novel Bayesian Quadrature approach for numerical integration when the integrand is non-negative, such as the case of computing the marginal likelihood, predictive distribution, or normalising constant of a probabilistic model. Our approach approximately marginalises the quadrature model's hyperparameters in closed form, and introduces an active learning scheme to optimally select function evaluations, as opposed to using Monte Carlo samples. We demonstrate our method on both a number of synthetic benchmarks and a real scientific problem from astronomy.

Reinforcement learning (RL) methods based on direct policy search (DPS) have been actively discussed to achieve an efficient approach to complicated Markov decision processes (MDPs). Although they have brought much progress in practical applications of RL, there still remains an unsolved problem in DPS related to model selection for the policy. In this paper, we propose a novel DPS method, {\it weighted likelihood policy search (WLPS)}, where a policy is efficiently learned through the weighted likelihood estimation. WLPS naturally connects DPS to the statistical inference problem and thus various sophisticated techniques in statistics can be applied to DPS problems directly. Hence, by following the idea of the {\it information criterion}, we develop a new measurement for model comparison in DPS based on the weighted log-likelihood.

We present a dynamic nonlinear generative model for visual motion based on a latent representation of binary-gated Gaussian variables. Trained on sequences of images, the model learns to represent different movement directions in different variables. We use an online approximate-inference scheme that can be mapped to the dynamics of networks of neurons. Probed with drifting grating stimuli and moving bars of light, neurons in the model show patterns of responses analogous to those of direction-selective simple cells in primary visual cortex. Most model neurons also show speed tuning and respond equally well to a range of motion directions and speeds aligned to the constraint line of their respective preferred speed. We show how these computations are enabled by a specific pattern of recurrent connections learned by the model.

Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning is a formally elegant approach to learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, trading off exploration and exploitation in an ideal way. Unfortunately, finding the resulting Bayes-optimal policies is notoriously taxing, since the search space becomes enormous. In this paper we introduce a tractable, sample-based method for approximate Bayes-optimal planning which exploits Monte-Carlo tree search. Our approach outperformed prior Bayesian model-based RL algorithms by a significant margin on several well-known benchmark problems -- because it avoids expensive applications of Bayes rule within the search tree by lazily sampling models from the current beliefs. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by showing it working in an infinite state space domain which is qualitatively out of reach of almost all previous work in Bayesian exploration.

We study the problem of maximum marginal prediction (MMP) in probabilistic graphical models, a task that occurs, for example, as the Bayes optimal decision rule under a Hamming loss. MMP is typically performed as a two-stage procedure: oneestimates each variable's marginal probability and then forms a prediction from the states of maximal probability. In this work we propose a simple yet effective technique for accelerating MMP when inference is sampling-based: instead of the above two-stage procedure we directly estimate the posterior probability of each decision variable. This allows us to identify the point of time when we are sufficiently certain about any individual decision. Whenever this is the case, we dynamically prune the variables we are confident about from the underlying factor graph. Consequently, at any time only samples of variables whose decision is still uncertain need to be created. Experiments in two prototypical scenarios, multi-label classification and image inpainting, show that adaptive sampling can drastically accelerate MMP without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the popular Plackett-Luce choice model that can handle an infinite number of choice items. Our framework is based on the theory of random atomic measures, with the prior specified by a gamma process. We derive a posterior characterization and a simple and effective Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. We then develop a time-varying extension of our model, and apply our model to the New York Times lists of weekly bestselling books.

Mixture distributions are often used to model complex data. In this paper, we develop a new method that jointly estimates mixture models over multiple data sets by exploiting the statistical dependencies between them. Specifically, we introduce a set of latent Dirichlet processes as sources of component models (atoms), and for each data set, we construct a nonparametric mixture model by combining sub-sampled versions of the latent DPs. Each mixture model may acquire atoms from different latent DPs, while each atom may be shared by multiple mixtures. This multi-to-multi association distinguishes the proposed method from prior constructions that rely on tree or chain structures, allowing mixture models to be coupled more flexibly. In addition, we derive a sampling algorithm that jointly infers the model parameters and present experiments on both document analysis and image modeling.

We present a new formulation for attacking binary classification problems. Instead of relying on convex losses and regularisers such as in SVMs, logistic regression and boosting, or instead non-convex but continuous formulations such as those encountered in neural networks and deep belief networks, our framework entails a non-convex but \emph{discrete} formulation, where estimation amounts to finding a MAP configuration in a graphical model whose potential functions are low-dimensional discrete surrogates for the misclassification loss. We argue that such a discrete formulation can naturally account for a number of issues that are typically encountered in either the convex or the continuous non-convex paradigms, or both. By reducing the learning problem to a MAP inference problem, we can immediately translate the guarantees available for many inference settings to the learning problem itself. We empirically demonstrate in a number of experiments that this approach is promising in dealing with issues such as severe label noise, while still having global optimality guarantees. Due to the discrete nature of the formulation, it also allows for \emph{direct} regularisation through cardinality-based penalties, such as the $\ell_0$ pseudo-norm, thus providing the ability to perform feature selection and trade-off interpretability and predictability in a principled manner. We also outline a number of open problems arising from the formulation.

We describe a latent variable model for supervised dimensionality reduction and distance metric learning. The model discovers linear projections of high dimensional data that shrink the distance between similarly labeled inputs and expand the distance between differently labeled ones. The model’s continuous latent variables locate pairs of examples in a latent space of lower dimensionality. The model differs significantly from classical factor analysis in that the posterior distribution over these latent variables is not always multivariate Gaussian. Nevertheless we show that inference is completely tractable and derive an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation. We also compare the model to other approaches in distance metric learning. The model’s main advantage is its simplicity: at each iteration of the EM algorithm, the distance metric is re-estimated by solving an unconstrained least-squares problem. Experiments show that these simple updates are highly effective.

We introduce a large-volume box classification for binary prediction, which maintains a subset of weight vectors, and specifically axis-aligned boxes. Our learning algorithm seeks for a box of large volume that contains ``simple'' weight vectors which most of are accurate on the training set. Two versions of the learning process are cast as convex optimization problems, and it is shown how to solve them efficiently. The formulation yields a natural PAC-Bayesian performance bound and it is shown to minimize a quantity directly aligned with it. The algorithm outperforms SVM and the recently proposed AROW algorithm on a majority of $30$ NLP datasets and binarized USPS optical character recognition datasets.