Dynamic probabilistic networks are a compact representation of complex stochastic processes. In this paper we examine how to learn the structure of a DPN from data. We extend structure scoring rules for standard probabilistic networks to the dynamic case, and show how to search for structure when some of the variables are hidden. Finally, we examine two applications where such a technology might be useful: predicting and classifying dynamic behaviors, and learning causal orderings in biological processes. We provide empirical results that demonstrate the applicability of our methods in both domains.

This paper describes a process for constructing situation-specific belief networks from a knowledge base of network fragments. A situation-specific network is a minimal query complete network constructed from a knowledge base in response to a query for the probability distribution on a set of target variables given evidence and context variables. We present definitions of query completeness and situation-specific networks. We describe conditions on the knowledge base that guarantee query completeness. The relationship of our work to earlier work on KBMC is also discussed.

The monitoring and control of any dynamic system depends crucially on the ability to reason about its current status and its future trajectory. In the case of a stochastic system, these tasks typically involve the use of a belief state- a probability distribution over the state of the process at a given point in time. Unfortunately, the state spaces of complex processes are very large, making an explicit representation of a belief state intractable. Even in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), where the process itself can be represented compactly, the representation of the belief state is intractable. We investigate the idea of maintaining a compact approximation to the true belief state, and analyze the conditions under which the errors due to the approximations taken over the lifetime of the process do not accumulate to make our answers completely irrelevant. We show that the error in a belief state contracts exponentially as the process evolves. Thus, even with multiple approximations, the error in our process remains bounded indefinitely. We show how the additional structure of a DBN can be used to design our approximation scheme, improving its performance significantly. We demonstrate the applicability of our ideas in the context of a monitoring task, showing that orders of magnitude faster inference can be achieved with only a small degradation in accuracy.

For many real time applications, it is important to validate the information received from the sensors before entering higher levels of reasoning. This paper presents an any time probabilistic algorithm for validating the information provided by sensors. The system consists of two Bayesian network models. The first one is a model of the dependencies between sensors and it is used to validate each sensor. It provides a list of potentially faulty sensors. To isolate the real faults, a second Bayesian network is used, which relates the potential faults with the real faults. This second model is also used to make the validation algorithm any time, by validating first the sensors that provide more information. To select the next sensor to validate, and measure the quality of the results at each stage, an entropy function is used. This function captures in a single quantity both the certainty and specificity measures of any time algorithms. Together, both models constitute a mechanism for validating sensors in an any time fashion, providing at each step the probability of correct/faulty for each sensor, and the total quality of the results. The algorithm has been tested in the validation of temperature sensors of a power plant.

AThe paper gives a few arguments in favour of the use of chain graphs for description of probabilistic conditional independence structures. Every Bayesian network model can be equivalently introduced by means of a factorization formula with respect to a chain graph which is Markov equivalent to the Bayesian network. A graphical characterization of such graphs is given. The class of equivalent graphs can be represented by a distinguished graph which is called the largest chain graph. The factorization formula with respect to the largest chain graph is a basis of a proposal of how to represent the corresponding (discrete) probability distribution in a computer (i.e. parametrize it). This way does not depend on the choice of a particular Bayesian network from the class of equivalent networks and seems to be the most efficient way from the point of view of memory demands. A separation criterion for reading independency statements from a chain graph is formulated in a simpler way. It resembles the well-known d-separation criterion for Bayesian networks and can be implemented locally.

There is evidence that the numbers in probabilistic inference don't really matter. This paper considers the idea that we can make a probabilistic model simpler by making fewer distinctions. Unfortunately, the level of a Bayesian network seems too coarse; it is unlikely that a parent will make little difference for all values of the other parents. In this paper we consider an approximation scheme where distinctions can be ignored in some contexts, but not in other contexts. We elaborate on a notion of a parent context that allows a structured context-specific decomposition of a probability distribution and the associated probabilistic inference scheme called probabilistic partial evaluation (Poole 1997). This paper shows a way to simplify a probabilistic model by ignoring distinctions which have similar probabilities, a method to exploit the simpler model, a bound on the resulting errors, and some preliminary empirical results on simple networks.

We investigate the application of classification techniques to utility elicitation. In a decision problem, two sets of parameters must generally be elicited: the probabilities and the utilities. While the prior and conditional probabilities in the model do not change from user to user, the utility models do. Thus it is necessary to elicit a utility model separately for each new user. Elicitation is long and tedious, particularly if the outcome space is large and not decomposable. There are two common approaches to utility function elicitation. The first is to base the determination of the users utility function solely ON elicitation OF qualitative preferences.The second makes assumptions about the form AND decomposability OF the utility function.Here we take a different approach: we attempt TO identify the new USERs utility function based on classification relative to a database of previously collected utility functions. We do this by identifying clusters of utility functions that minimize an appropriate distance measure. Having identified the clusters, we develop a classification scheme that requires many fewer and simpler assessments than full utility elicitation and is more robust than utility elicitation based solely on preferences. We have tested our algorithm on a small database of utility functions in a prenatal diagnosis domain and the results are quite promising.

In many classification systems, sensing modalities have different acquisition costs. It is often {\it unnecessary} to use every modality to classify a majority of examples. We study a multi-stage system in a prediction time cost reduction setting, where the full data is available for training, but for a test example, measurements in a new modality can be acquired at each stage for an additional cost. We seek decision rules to reduce the average measurement acquisition cost. We formulate an empirical risk minimization problem (ERM) for a multi-stage reject classifier, wherein the stage $k$ classifier either classifies a sample using only the measurements acquired so far or rejects it to the next stage where more attributes can be acquired for a cost. To solve the ERM problem, we show that the optimal reject classifier at each stage is a combination of two binary classifiers, one biased towards positive examples and the other biased towards negative examples. We use this parameterization to construct stage-by-stage global surrogate risk, develop an iterative algorithm in the boosting framework and present convergence and generalization results. We test our work on synthetic, medical and explosives detection datasets. Our results demonstrate that substantial cost reduction without a significant sacrifice in accuracy is achievable.

K-Nearest neighbor classifier (k-NNC) is simple to use and has little design time like finding k values in k-nearest neighbor classifier, hence these are suitable to work with dynamically varying data-sets. There exists some fundamental improvements over the basic k-NNC, like weighted k-nearest neighbors classifier (where weights to nearest neighbors are given based on linear interpolation), using artificially generated training set called bootstrapped training set, etc. These improvements are orthogonal to space reduction and classification time reduction techniques, hence can be coupled with any of them. The paper proposes another improvement to the basic k-NNC where the weights to nearest neighbors are given based on Gaussian distribution (instead of linear interpolation as done in weighted k-NNC) which is also independent of any space reduction and classification time reduction technique. We formally show that our proposed method is closely related to non-parametric density estimation using a Gaussian kernel. We experimentally demonstrate using various standard data-sets that the proposed method is better than the existing ones in most cases.

One conjecture in both deep learning and classical connectionist viewpoint is that the biological brain implements certain kinds of deep networks as its back-end. However, to our knowledge, a detailed correspondence has not yet been set up, which is important if we want to bridge between neuroscience and machine learning. Recent researches emphasized the biological plausibility of Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) neuron model. We show that with neurally plausible settings, the whole network is capable of representing any Boltzmann machine and performing a semi-stochastic Bayesian inference algorithm lying between Gibbs sampling and variational inference.