Formal exploration approaches in model-based reinforcement learning estimate the accuracy of the currently learned model without consideration of the empirical prediction error. For example, PAC-MDP approaches such as Rmax base their model certainty on the amount of collected data, while Bayesian approaches assume a prior over the transition dynamics. We propose extensions to such approaches which drive exploration solely based on empirical estimates of the learner's accuracy and learning progress. We provide a ``sanity check'' theoretical analysis, discussing the behavior of our extensions in the standard stationary finite state-action case. We then provide experimental studies demonstrating the robustness of these exploration measures in cases of non-stationary environments or where original approaches are misled by wrong domain assumptions.

Characterizing the information carried by neural populations in the brain requires accurate statistical models of neural spike responses. The negative-binomial distribution provides a convenient model for over-dispersed spike counts, that is, responses with greater-than-Poisson variability. Here we describe a powerful data-augmentation framework for fully Bayesian inference in neural models with negative-binomial spiking. Our approach relies on a recently described latent-variable representation of the negative-binomial distribution, which equates it to a Polya-gamma mixture of normals. This framework provides a tractable, conditionally Gaussian representation of the posterior that can be used to design efficient EM and Gibbs sampling based algorithms for inference in regression and dynamic factor models. We apply the model to neural data from primate retina and show that it substantially outperforms Poisson regression on held-out data, and reveals latent structure underlying spike count correlations in simultaneously recorded spike trains.

Modelling natural images with sparse coding (SC) has faced two main challenges: flexibly representing varying pixel intensities and realistically representing lowlevel image components. This paper proposes a novel multiple-cause generative model of low-level image statistics that generalizes the standard SC model in two crucial points: (1) it uses a spike-and-slab prior distribution for a more realistic representation of component absence/intensity, and (2) the model uses the highly nonlinear combination rule of maximal causes analysis (MCA) instead of a linear combination. The major challenge is parameter optimization because a model with either (1) or (2) results in strongly multimodal posteriors. We show for the first time that a model combining both improvements can be trained efficiently while retaining the rich structure of the posteriors. We design an exact piecewise Gibbs sampling method and combine this with a variational method based on preselection of latent dimensions. This combined training scheme tackles both analytical and computational intractability and enables application of the model to a large number of observed and hidden dimensions.

A common challenge for Bayesian models of perception is the fact that the two fundamental Bayesian components, the prior distribution and the likelihood function, are formally unconstrained. Here we argue that a neural system that emulates Bayesian inference is naturally constrained by the way it represents sensory information in populations of neurons. More specifically, we show that an efficient coding principle creates a direct link between prior and likelihood based on the underlying stimulus distribution. The resulting Bayesian estimates can show biases away from the peaks of the prior distribution, a behavior seemingly at odds with the traditional view of Bayesian estimation, yet one that has been reported in human perception. We demonstrate that our framework correctly accounts for the repulsive biases previously reported for the perception of visual orientation, and show that the predicted tuning characteristics of the model neurons match the reported orientation tuning properties of neurons in primary visual cortex. Our results suggest that efficient coding is a promising hypothesis in constraining Bayesian models of perceptual inference.

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

Modelling natural images with sparse coding (SC) has faced two main challenges: flexibly representing varying pixel intensities and realistically representing lowlevel image components. This paper proposes a novel multiple-cause generative model of low-level image statistics that generalizes the standard SC model in two crucial points: (1) it uses a spike-and-slab prior distribution for a more realistic representation of component absence/intensity, and (2) the model uses the highly nonlinear combination rule of maximal causes analysis (MCA) instead of a linear combination. The major challenge is parameter optimization because a model with either (1) or (2) results in strongly multimodal posteriors. We show for the first time that a model combining both improvements can be trained efficiently while retaining the rich structure of the posteriors. We design an exact piecewise Gibbs sampling method and combine this with a variational method based on preselection of latent dimensions. This combined training scheme tackles both analytical and computational intractability and enables application of the model to a large number of observed and hidden dimensions.

A common challenge for Bayesian models of perception is the fact that the two fundamental Bayesian components, the prior distribution and the likelihood function, are formally unconstrained. Here we argue that a neural system that emulates Bayesian inference is naturally constrained by the way it represents sensory information in populations of neurons. More specifically, we show that an efficient coding principle creates a direct link between prior and likelihood based on the underlying stimulus distribution. The resulting Bayesian estimates can show biases away from the peaks of the prior distribution, a behavior seemingly at odds with the traditional view of Bayesian estimation, yet one that has been reported in human perception. We demonstrate that our framework correctly accounts for the repulsive biases previously reported for the perception of visual orientation, and show that the predicted tuning characteristics of the model neurons match the reported orientation tuning properties of neurons in primary visual cortex. Our results suggest that efficient coding is a promising hypothesis in constraining Bayesian models of perceptual inference.

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.