To help users quickly understand the major opinions from massive online reviews, it is important to automatically reveal the latent structure of the aspects, sentiment polarities, and the association between them. However, there is little work available to do this effectively. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical aspect sentiment model (HASM) to discover a hierarchical structure of aspect-based sentiments from unlabeled online reviews. In HASM, the whole structure is a tree. Each node itself is a two-level tree, whose root represents an aspect and the children represent the sentiment polarities associated with it. Each aspect or sentiment polarity is modeled as a distribution of words. To automatically extract both the structure and parameters of the tree, we use a Bayesian nonparametric model, recursive Chinese Restaurant Process (rCRP), as the prior and jointly infer the aspect-sentiment tree from the review texts. Experiments on two real datasets show that our model is comparable to two other hierarchical topic models in terms of quantitative measures of topic trees. It is also shown that our model achieves better sentence-level classification accuracy than previously proposed aspect-sentiment joint models.

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks.  This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

While great strides have been made in multiagent teamwork, existing approaches typically assume extensive information exists about teammates and how to coordinate actions. This paper addresses how robust teamwork can still be created even if limited or no information exists about a specific group of teammates, as in the ad hoc teamwork scenario. The main contribution of this paper is the first empirical evaluation of an agent cooperating with teammates not created by the authors, where the agent is not provided expert knowledge of its teammates. For this purpose, we develop a general-purpose teammate modeling method and test the resulting ad hoc team agent's ability to collaborate with more than 40 unknown teams of agents to accomplish a benchmark task. These agents were designed by people other than the authors without these designers planning for the ad hoc teamwork setting. A secondary contribution of the paper is a new transfer learning algorithm, TwoStageTransfer, that can improve results when the ad hoc team agent does have some limited observations of its current teammates.

The implication problem of probabilistic conditional independencies is investigated in the presence of missing data. Here, graph separation axioms fail to hold for saturated conditional independencies, unlike the known idealized case with no missing data. Several axiomatic, algorithmic, and logical characterizations of the implication problem for saturated conditional independencies are established. In particular, equivalences are shown to the implication problem of a propositional fragment under Levesque's situations, and that of Lien's class of multivalued database dependencies under null values.

Graphical models have gained a lot of attention recently as a tool for learning and representing dependencies among variables in multivariate data. Often, domain scientists are looking specifically for differences among the dependency networks of different conditions or populations (e.g. differences between regulatory networks of different species, or differences between dependency networks of diseased versus healthy populations). The standard method for finding these differences is to learn the dependency networks for each condition independently and compare them. We show that this approach is prone to high false discovery rates (low precision) that can render the analysis useless. We then show that by imposing a bias towards learning similar dependency networks for each condition the false discovery rates can be reduced to acceptable levels, at the cost of finding a reduced number of differences. Algorithms developed in the transfer learning literature can be used to vary the strength of the imposed similarity bias and provide a natural mechanism to smoothly adjust this differential precision-recall tradeoff to cater to the requirements of the analysis conducted. We present real case studies (oncological and neurological) where domain experts use the proposed technique to extract useful differential networks that shed light on the biological processes involved in cancer and brain function.

Lifted probabilistic inference algorithms exploit regularities in the structure of graphical models to perform inference more efficiently. More specifically, they identify groups of interchangeable variables and perform inference once per group, as opposed to once per variable. The groups are defined by means of constraints, so the flexibility of the grouping is determined by the expressivity of the constraint language. Existing approaches for exact lifted inference use specific languages for (in)equality constraints, which often have limited expressivity. In this article, we decouple lifted inference from the constraint language. We define operators for lifted inference in terms of relational algebra operators, so that they operate on the semantic level (the constraints' extension) rather than on the syntactic level, making them language-independent. As a result, lifted inference can be performed using more powerful constraint languages, which provide more opportunities for lifting. We empirically demonstrate that this can improve inference efficiency by orders of magnitude, allowing exact inference where until now only approximate inference was feasible.

Bayesian network structure learning algorithms with limited data are being used in domains such as systems biology and neuroscience to gain insight into the underlying processes that produce observed data. Learning reliable networks from limited data is difficult, therefore transfer learning can improve the robustness of learned networks by leveraging data from related tasks. Existing transfer learning algorithms for Bayesian network structure learning give a single maximum a posteriori estimate of network models. Yet, many other models may be equally likely, and so a more informative result is provided by Bayesian structure discovery. Bayesian structure discovery algorithms estimate posterior probabilities of structural features, such as edges. We present transfer learning for Bayesian structure discovery which allows us to explore the shared and unique structural features among related tasks. Efficient computation requires that our transfer learning objective factors into local calculations, which we prove is given by a broad class of transfer biases. Theoretically, we show the efficiency of our approach. Empirically, we show that compared to single task learning, transfer learning is better able to positively identify true edges. We apply the method to whole-brain neuroimaging data.

Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is computationally efficient. In this paper we make an attempt to combine their strengths, and propose a simple approach that penalizes the likelihood with data-dependent $\ell_1$ penalties as in adaptive Lasso and exploits a fixed penalization parameter. Even for finite samples, its model selection results approximately coincide with those based on information criteria; in particular, we show that in some special cases, this approach and the corresponding information criterion produce exactly the same model. One can also consider this approach as a way to directly determine the penalization parameter in adaptive Lasso to achieve information criteria-like model selection. As extensions, we apply this idea to complex models including Gaussian mixture model and mixture of factor analyzers, whose model selection is traditionally difficult to do; by adopting suitable penalties, we provide continuous approximators to the corresponding information criteria, which are easy to optimize and enable efficient model selection.

In this paper, we describe a dataset relating to cellular and physical conditions of patients who are operated upon to remove colorectal tumours. This data provides a unique insight into immunological status at the point of tumour removal, tumour classification and post-operative survival. Attempts are made to learn relationships between attributes (physical and immunological) and the resulting tumour stage and survival. Results for conventional machine learning approaches can be considered poor, especially for predicting tumour stages for the most important types of cancer. This poor performance is further investigated and compared with a synthetic, dataset based on the logical exclusive-OR function and it is shown that there is a significant level of 'anti-learning' present in all supervised methods used and this can be explained by the highly dimensional, complex and sparsely representative dataset. For predicting the stage of cancer from the immunological attributes, anti-learning approaches outperform a range of popular algorithms.

In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of $\hat{K}$ Gaussian component densities. However, model selection to find underlying $\hat{K}$ is one of the key concerns in GMM clustering, since we can obtain the desired clusters only when $\hat{K}$ is known. In this paper, we propose a new model selection algorithm to explore $\hat{K}$ in a Bayesian framework. The proposed algorithm builds the density of the model order which any information criterions such as AIC and BIC basically fail to reconstruct. In addition, this algorithm reconstructs the density quickly as compared to the time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.