Adverse and anomalous (A&A) events are a serious concern in medical robots. We describe a system that can rapidly detect such events and predict their occurrence. As part of this system, we describe simulation, data collection and user interface tools we build for a robot for small animal biopsies. The data we collect consists of both the hardware state of the robot and variables in the software controller. We use this data to train dynamic Bayesian network models of the joint hardware-software state-space dynamics of the robot. Our empirical evaluation shows that (i) our models can accurately model normal behavior of the robot, (ii) they can rapidly detect anomalous behavior once it starts, (iii) they can accurately predict a future A&A event within a time window of it starting and (iv) the use of additional software variables beyond the hardware state of the robot is important in being able to detect and predict certain kinds of events.

Mixed probabilistic and deterministic graphical models are ubiquitous in real-world applications. Unfortunately, Gibbs sampling, a popular MCMC technique, does not converge to the correct answers in presence of determinism and therefore cannot be used for inference in such models. In this paper, we propose to remedy this problem by combining Gibbs sampling with SampleSearch, an advanced importance sampling technique which leverages complete SAT/CSP solvers to generate high quality samples from hard deterministic spaces. We call the resulting algorithm, GiSS. Unlike Gibbs sampling which yields unweighted samples, GiSS yields weighted samples. Computing these weights exactly can be computationally expensive and therefore we propose several approximations. We show that our approximate weighting schemes yield consistent estimates and demonstrate experimentally that GiSS is competitive in terms of accuracy with state-of-the-art algorithms such as SampleSearch, MC-SAT and Belief propagation.

The implication problem of probabilistic conditional independencies is investigated in the presence of missing data. Here, graph separation axioms fail to hold for saturated conditional independencies, unlike the known idealized case with no missing data. Several axiomatic, algorithmic, and logical characterizations of the implication problem for saturated conditional independencies are established. In particular, equivalences are shown to the implication problem of a propositional fragment under Levesque's situations, and that of Lien's class of multivalued database dependencies under null values.

To help users quickly understand the major opinions from massive online reviews, it is important to automatically reveal the latent structure of the aspects, sentiment polarities, and the association between them. However, there is little work available to do this effectively. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical aspect sentiment model (HASM) to discover a hierarchical structure of aspect-based sentiments from unlabeled online reviews. In HASM, the whole structure is a tree. Each node itself is a two-level tree, whose root represents an aspect and the children represent the sentiment polarities associated with it. Each aspect or sentiment polarity is modeled as a distribution of words. To automatically extract both the structure and parameters of the tree, we use a Bayesian nonparametric model, recursive Chinese Restaurant Process (rCRP), as the prior and jointly infer the aspect-sentiment tree from the review texts. Experiments on two real datasets show that our model is comparable to two other hierarchical topic models in terms of quantitative measures of topic trees. It is also shown that our model achieves better sentence-level classification accuracy than previously proposed aspect-sentiment joint models.

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks.  This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Recent years have witnessed the tremendous development of social media, which attracts a vast number of Internet users. The high-dimension content generated by these users provides an unique opportunity to understand their behavior deeply. As one of the most fundamental topics, location estimation attracts more and more research efforts. Different from the previous literature, we find that user's location is strongly related to user interest. Based on this, we first build a detection model to mine user interest from short text. We then establish the mapping between location function and user interest before presenting an efficient framework to predict the user's location with convincing fidelity. Thorough evaluations and comparisons on an authentic data set show that our proposed model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-arts approaches. Moreover, the high efficiency of our model also guarantees its applicability in real-world scenarios.

Intermittent fault localization approaches account for the fact that faulty components may fail intermittently by considering a parameter (known as goodness) that quantifies the probability that faulty components may still exhibit correct behavior. Current, state-of-the-art approaches (1) assume that this goodness probability is context independent and (2) do not provide means for integrating past diagnosis experience in the diagnostic mechanism. In this paper, we present a novel approach, coined Non-linear Feedback-based Goodness Estimate (NFGE), that uses kernel density estimations (KDE) to address such limitations. We evaluated the approach with both synthetic and real data, yielding lower estimation errors, thus increasing the diagnosis performance.

While great strides have been made in multiagent teamwork, existing approaches typically assume extensive information exists about teammates and how to coordinate actions. This paper addresses how robust teamwork can still be created even if limited or no information exists about a specific group of teammates, as in the ad hoc teamwork scenario. The main contribution of this paper is the first empirical evaluation of an agent cooperating with teammates not created by the authors, where the agent is not provided expert knowledge of its teammates. For this purpose, we develop a general-purpose teammate modeling method and test the resulting ad hoc team agent's ability to collaborate with more than 40 unknown teams of agents to accomplish a benchmark task. These agents were designed by people other than the authors without these designers planning for the ad hoc teamwork setting. A secondary contribution of the paper is a new transfer learning algorithm, TwoStageTransfer, that can improve results when the ad hoc team agent does have some limited observations of its current teammates.

Graphical models have gained a lot of attention recently as a tool for learning and representing dependencies among variables in multivariate data. Often, domain scientists are looking specifically for differences among the dependency networks of different conditions or populations (e.g. differences between regulatory networks of different species, or differences between dependency networks of diseased versus healthy populations). The standard method for finding these differences is to learn the dependency networks for each condition independently and compare them. We show that this approach is prone to high false discovery rates (low precision) that can render the analysis useless. We then show that by imposing a bias towards learning similar dependency networks for each condition the false discovery rates can be reduced to acceptable levels, at the cost of finding a reduced number of differences. Algorithms developed in the transfer learning literature can be used to vary the strength of the imposed similarity bias and provide a natural mechanism to smoothly adjust this differential precision-recall tradeoff to cater to the requirements of the analysis conducted. We present real case studies (oncological and neurological) where domain experts use the proposed technique to extract useful differential networks that shed light on the biological processes involved in cancer and brain function.

Lifted probabilistic inference algorithms exploit regularities in the structure of graphical models to perform inference more efficiently. More specifically, they identify groups of interchangeable variables and perform inference once per group, as opposed to once per variable. The groups are defined by means of constraints, so the flexibility of the grouping is determined by the expressivity of the constraint language. Existing approaches for exact lifted inference use specific languages for (in)equality constraints, which often have limited expressivity. In this article, we decouple lifted inference from the constraint language. We define operators for lifted inference in terms of relational algebra operators, so that they operate on the semantic level (the constraints' extension) rather than on the syntactic level, making them language-independent. As a result, lifted inference can be performed using more powerful constraint languages, which provide more opportunities for lifting. We empirically demonstrate that this can improve inference efficiency by orders of magnitude, allowing exact inference where until now only approximate inference was feasible.