During the last two decades there has been a growing interest in Particle Filtering (PF). However, PF suffers from two long-standing problems that are referred to as sample degeneracy and impoverishment. We are investigating methods that are particularly efficient at Particle Distribution Optimization (PDO) to fight sample degeneracy and impoverishment, with an emphasis on intelligence choices. These methods benefit from such methods as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, Mean-shift algorithms, artificial intelligence algorithms (e.g., Particle Swarm Optimization, Genetic Algorithm and Ant Colony Optimization), machine learning approaches (e.g., clustering, splitting and merging) and their hybrids, forming a coherent standpoint to enhance the particle filter. The working mechanism, interrelationship, pros and cons of these approaches are provided. In addition, Approaches that are effective for dealing with high-dimensionality are reviewed. While improving the filter performance in terms of accuracy, robustness and convergence, it is noted that advanced techniques employed in PF often causes additional computational requirement that will in turn sacrifice improvement obtained in real life filtering. This fact, hidden in pure simulations, deserves the attention of the users and designers of new filters.

We pursue an early stopping technique that helps Gaussian Restricted Boltzmann Machines (GRBMs) to gain good natural image representations in terms of overcompleteness and data fitting. GRBMs are widely considered as an unsuitable model for natural images because they gain non-overcomplete representations which include uniform filters that do not represent useful image features. We have recently found that GRBMs once gain and subsequently lose useful filters during their training, contrary to this common perspective. We attribute this phenomenon to a tradeoff between overcompleteness of GRBM representations and data fitting. To gain GRBM representations that are overcomplete and fit data well, we propose a measure for GRBM representation quality, approximated mutual information, and an early stopping technique based on this measure. The proposed method boosts performance of classifiers trained on GRBM representations.

We extend the theory of d-separation to cases in which data instances are not independent and identically distributed. We show that applying the rules of d-separation directly to the structure of probabilistic models of relational data inaccurately infers conditional independence. We introduce relational d-separation, a theory for deriving conditional independence facts from relational models. We provide a new representation, the abstract ground graph, that enables a sound, complete, and computationally efficient method for answering d-separation queries about relational models, and we present empirical results that demonstrate effectiveness.

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a novel PMCMC algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS). PGAS provides the data analyst with an off-the-shelf class of Markov kernels that can be used to simulate the typically high-dimensional and highly autocorrelated state trajectory in a state-space model. The ancestor sampling procedure enables fast mixing of the PGAS kernel even when using seemingly few particles in the underlying SMC sampler. This is important as it can significantly reduce the computational burden that is typically associated with using SMC. PGAS is conceptually similar to the existing PG with backward simulation (PGBS) procedure. Instead of using separate forward and backward sweeps as in PGBS, however, we achieve the same effect in a single forward sweep. This makes PGAS well suited for addressing inference problems not only in state-space models, but also in models with more complex dependencies, such as non-Markovian, Bayesian nonparametric, and general probabilistic graphical models.

With simultaneous measurements from ever increasing populations of neurons, there is a growing need for sophisticated tools to recover signals from individual neurons. In electrophysiology experiments, this classically proceeds in a two-step process: (i) threshold the waveforms to detect putative spikes and (ii) cluster the waveforms into single units (neurons). We extend previous Bayesian nonparamet- ric models of neural spiking to jointly detect and cluster neurons using a Gamma process model. Importantly, we develop an online approximate inference scheme enabling real-time analysis, with performance exceeding the previous state-of-the- art. Via exploratory data analysis—using data with partial ground truth as well as two novel data sets—we find several features of our model collectively contribute to our improved performance including: (i) accounting for colored noise, (ii) de- tecting overlapping spikes, (iii) tracking waveform dynamics, and (iv) using mul- tiple channels. We hope to enable novel experiments simultaneously measuring many thousands of neurons and possibly adapting stimuli dynamically to probe ever deeper into the mysteries of the brain.

We study the problem of reconstructing low-rank matrices from their noisy observations. We formulate the problem in the Bayesian framework, which allows us to exploit structural properties of matrices in addition to low-rankedness, such as sparsity. We propose an efficient approximate message passing algorithm, derived from the belief propagation algorithm, to perform the Bayesian inference for matrix reconstruction. We have also successfully applied the proposed algorithm to a clustering problem, by formulating the problem of clustering as a low-rank matrix reconstruction problem with an additional structural property. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm outperforms Lloyd's K-means algorithm.

This paper presents a novel algorithm, based upon the dependent Dirichlet process mixture model (DDPMM), for clustering batch-sequential data containing an unknown number of evolving clusters. The algorithm is derived via a low-variance asymptotic analysis of the Gibbs sampling algorithm for the DDPMM, and provides a hard clustering with convergence guarantees similar to those of the k-means algorithm. Empirical results from a synthetic test with moving Gaussian clusters and a test with real ADS-B aircraft trajectory data demonstrate that the algorithm requires orders of magnitude less computational time than contemporary probabilistic and hard clustering algorithms, while providing higher accuracy on the examined datasets.

There are two major routes to address linear inverse problems. Whereas regularization-based approaches build estimators as solutions of penalized regression optimization problems, Bayesian estimators rely on the posterior distribution of the unknown, given some assumed family of priors. While these may seem radically different approaches, recent results have shown that, in the context of additive white Gaussian denoising, the Bayesian conditional mean estimator is always the solution of a penalized regression problem. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we extend the additive white Gaussian denoising results to general linear inverse problems with colored Gaussian noise. Second, we characterize conditions under which the penalty function associated to the conditional mean estimator can satisfy certain popular properties such as convexity, separability, and smoothness. This sheds light on some tradeoff between computational efficiency and estimation accuracy in sparse regularization, and draws some connections between Bayesian estimation and proximal optimization.

How humans achieve long-term goals in an uncertain environment, via repeated trials and noisy observations, is an important problem in cognitive science. We investigate this behavior in the context of a multi-armed bandit task. We compare human behavior to a variety of models that vary in their representational and computational complexity. Our result shows that subjects' choices, on a trial-to- trial basis, are best captured by a "forgetful" Bayesian iterative learning model [21] in combination with a partially myopic decision policy known as Knowledge Gradient [7]. This model accounts for subjects' trial-by-trial choice better than a number of other previously proposed models, including optimal Bayesian learning and risk minimization, ε-greedy and win-stay-lose-shift. It has the added benefit of being closest in performance to the optimal Bayesian model than all the other heuristic models that have the same computational complexity (all are significantly less complex than the optimal model). These results constitute an advancement in the theoretical understanding of how humans negotiate the tension between exploration and exploitation in a noisy, imperfectly known environment.

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features.