The question of how to determine the number of independent latent factors (topics) in mixture models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is of great practical importance. In most applications, the exact number of topics is unknown, and depends on the application and the size of the data set. Bayesian nonparametric methods can avoid the problem of topic number selection, but they can be impracticably slow for large sample sizes and are subject to local optima. We develop a guaranteed procedure for topic number recovery that does not necessitate learning the model's latent parameters beforehand. Our procedure relies on adapting results from random matrix theory. Performance of our topic number recovery procedure is superior to hLDA, a nonparametric method. We also discuss some implications of our results on the sample complexity and accuracy of popular spectral learning algorithms for LDA. Our results and procedure can be extended to spectral learning algorithms for other exchangeable mixture models as well as Hidden Markov Models.

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of l1 penalized maximum likelihood estimation of signals with piece-wise constant mean values and/or variances. The focus is on segmentation of a non-stationary time series with respect to changes in these model parameters. This change point detection and estimation problem is also referred to as total variation denoising or l1 -mean filtering and has many important applications in most fields of science and engineering. We establish the (approximate) sparse consistency properties, including rate of convergence, of the so-called fused lasso signal approximator (FLSA). We show that this only holds if the sign of the corresponding consecutive changes are all different, and that this estimator is otherwise incapable of correctly detecting the underlying sparsity pattern. The key idea is to notice that the optimality conditions for this problem can be analyzed using techniques related to brownian bridge theory.

In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process behaviour to be partly unknown. Then we use Walleys theory of coherent lower previsions, a generalisation of the Bayesian theory to imprecision, to derive the rule to update beliefs under incompleteness that logically follows from our assumptions, and that we call conservative inference rule. This rule has some remarkable properties: it is an abstract rule to update beliefs that can be applied in any situation or domain; it gives us the opportunity to be neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic about the incompleteness process, which is a necessary condition to draw reliable while strong enough conclusions; and it is a coherent rule, in the sense that it cannot lead to inconsistencies. We give examples to show how the new rule can be applied in expert systems, in parametric statistical inference, and in pattern classification, and discuss more generally the view of incompleteness processes defended here as well as some of its consequences.

Many real-world decision making tasks require us to choose among several expensive observations. In a sensor network, for example, it is important to select the subset of sensors that is expected to provide the strongest reduction in uncertainty. In medical decision making tasks, one needs to select which tests to administer before deciding on the most effective treatment. It has been general practice to use heuristic-guided procedures for selecting observations. In this paper, we present the first efficient optimal algorithms for selecting observations for a class of probabilistic graphical models. For example, our algorithms allow to optimally label hidden variables in Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We provide results for both selecting the optimal subset of observations, and for obtaining an optimal conditional observation plan. Furthermore we prove a surprising result: In most graphical models tasks, if one designs an efficient algorithm for chain graphs, such as HMMs, this procedure can be generalized to polytree graphical models. We prove that the optimizing value of information is $NP^{PP}$-hard even for polytrees. It also follows from our results that just computing decision theoretic value of information objective functions, which are commonly used in practice, is a #P-complete problem even on Naive Bayes models (a simple special case of polytrees). In addition, we consider several extensions, such as using our algorithms for scheduling observation selection for multiple sensors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several real-world datasets, including a prototype sensor network deployment for energy conservation in buildings.

The paper investigates parameterized approximate message-passing schemes that are based on bounded inference and are inspired by Pearl's belief propagation algorithm (BP). We start with the bounded inference mini-clustering algorithm and then move to the iterative scheme called Iterative Join-Graph Propagation (IJGP), that combines both iteration and bounded inference. Algorithm IJGP belongs to the class of Generalized Belief Propagation algorithms, a framework that allowed connections with approximate algorithms from statistical physics and is shown empirically to surpass the performance of mini-clustering and belief propagation, as well as a number of other state-of-the-art algorithms on several classes of networks. We also provide insight into the accuracy of iterative BP and IJGP by relating these algorithms to well known classes of constraint propagation schemes.

Inference in Bayes Nets (BAYES) is an important problem with numerous applications in probabilistic reasoning. Counting the number of satisfying assignments of a propositional formula (#SAT) is a closely related problem of fundamental theoretical importance. Both these problems, and others, are members of the class of sum-of-products (SUMPROD) problems. In this paper we show that standard backtracking search when augmented with a simple memoization scheme (caching) can solve any sum-of-products problem with time complexity that is at least as good any other state-of-the-art exact algorithm, and that it can also achieve the best known time-space tradeoff. Furthermore, backtracking's ability to utilize more flexible variable orderings allows us to prove that it can achieve an exponential speedup over other standard algorithms for SUMPROD on some instances. The ideas presented here have been utilized in a number of solvers that have been applied to various types of sum-of-product problems. These system's have exploited the fact that backtracking can naturally exploit more of the problem's structure to achieve improved performance on a range of probleminstances. Empirical evidence of this performance gain has appeared in published works describing these solvers, and we provide references to these works.

The survey propagation (SP) algorithm has been shown to work well on large instances of the random 3-SAT problem near its phase transition. It was shown that SP estimates marginals over covers that represent clusters of solutions. The SP-y algorithm generalizes SP to work on the maximum satisfiability (Max-SAT) problem, but the cover interpretation of SP does not generalize to SP-y. In this paper, we formulate the relaxed survey propagation (RSP) algorithm, which extends the SP algorithm to apply to the weighted Max-SAT problem. We show that RSP has an interpretation of estimating marginals over covers violating a set of clauses with minimal weight. This naturally generalizes the cover interpretation of SP. Empirically, we show that RSP outperforms SP-y and other state-of-the-art Max-SAT solvers on random Max-SAT instances. RSP also outperforms state-of-the-art weighted Max-SAT solvers on random weighted Max-SAT instances.

We present two algorithms for learning the structure of a Markov network from data: GSMN* and GSIMN. Both algorithms use statistical independence tests to infer the structure by successively constraining the set of structures consistent with the results of these tests. Until very recently, algorithms for structure learning were based on maximum likelihood estimation, which has been proved to be NP-hard for Markov networks due to the difficulty of estimating the parameters of the network, needed for the computation of the data likelihood. The independence-based approach does not require the computation of the likelihood, and thus both GSMN* and GSIMN can compute the structure efficiently (as shown in our experiments). GSMN* is an adaptation of the Grow-Shrink algorithm of Margaritis and Thrun for learning the structure of Bayesian networks. GSIMN extends GSMN* by additionally exploiting Pearls well-known properties of the conditional independence relation to infer novel independences from known ones, thus avoiding the performance of statistical tests to estimate them. To accomplish this efficiently GSIMN uses the Triangle theorem, also introduced in this work, which is a simplified version of the set of Markov axioms. Experimental comparisons on artificial and real-world data sets show GSIMN can yield significant savings with respect to GSMN*, while generating a Markov network with comparable or in some cases improved quality. We also compare GSIMN to a forward-chaining implementation, called GSIMN-FCH, that produces all possible conditional independences resulting from repeatedly applying Pearls theorems on the known conditional independence tests. The results of this comparison show that GSIMN, by the sole use of the Triangle theorem, is nearly optimal in terms of the set of independences tests that it infers.

Bayesian networks are a useful tool in the representation of uncertain knowledge. This paper proposes a new algorithm called ACO-E, to learn the structure of a Bayesian network. It does this by conducting a search through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). To this end, two novel extensions of traditional ACO techniques are proposed and implemented. Firstly, multiple types of moves are allowed. Secondly, moves can be given in terms of indices that are not based on construction graph nodes. The results of testing show that ACO-E performs better than a greedy search and other state-of-the-art and metaheuristic algorithms whilst searching in the space of equivalence classes.

In this survey, we present and compare different approaches to estimate Mutual Information (MI) from data to analyse general dependencies between variables of interest in a system. We demonstrate the performance difference of MI versus correlation analysis, which is only optimal in case of linear dependencies. First, we use a piece-wise constant Bayesian methodology using a general Dirichlet prior. In this estimation method, we use a two-stage approach where we approximate the probability distribution first and then calculate the marginal and joint entropies. Here, we demonstrate the performance of this Bayesian approach versus the others for computing the dependency between different variables. We also compare these with linear correlation analysis. Finally, we apply MI and correlation analysis to the identification of the bias in the determination of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) by the satellite based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the ground based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). Here, we observe that the AOD measurements by these two instruments might be different for the same location. The reason of this bias is explored by quantifying the dependencies between the bias and 15 other variables including cloud cover, surface reflectivity and others.