Geographical location is vital to geospatial applications like local search and event detection. In this paper, we investigate and improve on the task of text-based geolocation prediction of Twitter users. Previous studies on this topic have typically assumed that geographical references (e.g., gazetteer terms, dialectal words) in a text are indicative of its authors location. However, these references are often buried in informal, ungrammatical, and multilingual data, and are therefore non-trivial to identify and exploit. We present an integrated geolocation prediction framework and investigate what factors impact on prediction accuracy. First, we evaluate a range of feature selection methods to obtain location indicative words. We then evaluate the impact of non-geotagged tweets, language, and user-declared metadata on geolocation prediction. In addition, we evaluate the impact of temporal variance on model generalisation, and discuss how users differ in terms of their geolocatability. We achieve state-of-the-art results for the text-based Twitter user geolocation task, and also provide the most extensive exploration of the task to date. Our findings provide valuable insights into the design of robust, practical text-based geolocation prediction systems.

Nodes in real world networks often have class labels, or underlying attributes, that are related to the way in which they connect to other nodes. Sometimes this relationship is simple, for instance nodes of the same class are may be more likely to be connected. In other cases, however, this is not true, and the way that nodes link in a network exhibits a different, more complex relationship to their attributes. Here, we consider networks in which we know how the nodes are connected, but we do not know the class labels of the nodes or how class labels relate to the network links. We wish to identify the best subset of nodes to label in order to learn this relationship between node attributes and network links. We can then use this discovered relationship to accurately predict the class labels of the rest of the network nodes. We present a model that identifies groups of nodes with similar link patterns, which we call network roles, using a generative blockmodel. The model then predicts labels by learning the mapping from network roles to class labels using a maximum margin classifier. We choose a subset of nodes to label according to an iterative margin-based active learning strategy. By integrating the discovery of network roles with the classifier optimisation, the active learning process can adapt the network roles to better represent the network for node classification. We demonstrate the model by exploring a selection of real world networks, including a marine food web and a network of English words. We show that, in contrast to other network classifiers, this model achieves good classification accuracy for a range of networks with different relationships between class labels and network links.

Recent advances in Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) have shown that Bayes-optimality is theoretically achievable by modeling the environment's latent dynamics using Flat-Dirichlet-Multinomial (FDM) prior. In self-interested multi-agent environments, the transition dynamics are mainly controlled by the other agent's stochastic behavior for which FDM's independence and modeling assumptions do not hold. As a result, FDM does not allow the other agent's behavior to be generalized across different states nor specified using prior domain knowledge. To overcome these practical limitations of FDM, we propose a generalization of BRL to integrate the general class of parametric models and model priors, thus allowing practitioners' domain knowledge to be exploited to produce a fine-grained and compact representation of the other agent's behavior. Empirical evaluation shows that our approach outperforms existing multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms.

Scientific practice typically involves repeatedly studying a system, each time trying to unravel a different perspective. In each study, the scientist may take measurements under different experimental conditions (interventions, manipulations, perturbations) and measure different sets of quantities (variables). The result is a collection of heterogeneous data sets coming from different data distributions. In this work, we present algorithm COmbINE, which accepts a collection of data sets over overlapping variable sets under different experimental conditions; COmbINE then outputs a summary of all causal models indicating the invariant and variant structural characteristics of all models that simultaneously fit all of the input data sets. COmbINE converts estimated dependencies and independencies in the data into path constraints on the data-generating causal model and encodes them as a SAT instance. The algorithm is sound and complete in the sample limit. To account for conflicting constraints arising from statistical errors, we introduce a general method for sorting constraints in order of confidence, computed as a function of their corresponding p-values. In our empirical evaluation, COmbINE outperforms in terms of efficiency the only pre-existing similar algorithm; the latter additionally admits feedback cycles, but does not admit conflicting constraints which hinders the applicability on real data. As a proof-of-concept, COmbINE is employed to co-analyze 4 real, mass-cytometry data sets measuring phosphorylated protein concentrations of overlapping protein sets under 3 different interventions.

In this survey we present different approaches that allow an intelligent agent to explore autonomous its environment to gather information and learn multiple tasks. Different communities proposed different solutions, that are in many cases, similar and/or complementary. These solutions include active learning, exploration/exploitation, online-learning and social learning. The common aspect of all these approaches is that it is the agent to selects and decides what information to gather next. Applications for these approaches already include tutoring systems, autonomous grasping learning, navigation and mapping and human-robot interaction. We discuss how these approaches are related, explaining their similarities and their differences in terms of problem assumptions and metrics of success. We consider that such an integrated discussion will improve inter-disciplinary research and applications.

It is generally believed that ensemble approaches, which combine multiple algorithms or models, can outperform any single algorithm at machine learning tasks, such as prediction. In this paper, we propose Bayesian convex and linear aggregation approaches motivated by regression applications. We show that the proposed approach is minimax optimal when the true data-generating model is a convex or linear combination of models in the list. Moreover, the method can adapt to sparsity structure in which certain models should receive zero weights, and the method is tuning parameter free unlike competitors. More generally, under an M-open view when the truth falls outside the space of all convex/linear combinations, our theory suggests that the posterior measure tends to concentrate on the best approximation of the truth at the minimax rate. We illustrate the method through simulation studies and several applications.

Contaminated mixture models are developed for model-based clustering of data with asymmetric clusters as well as spurious points, outliers, and/or noise. Specifically, we introduce a contaminated mixture of contaminated shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions and a contaminated mixture of contaminated skew-normal distributions. In each case, mixture components have a parameter controlling the proportion of bad points (i.e., spurious points, outliers, and/or noise) and one specifying the degree of contamination. A very important feature of our approaches is that these parameters do not have to be specified a priori. Expectation-conditional maximization algorithms are outlined for parameter estimation and the number of components is selected using the Bayesian information criterion. The performance of our approaches is illustrated on artificial and real data.

In this work we consider the problem of learning the structure of Markov networks from data. We present an approach for tackling this problem called IBMAP, together with an efficient instantiation of the approach: the IBMAP-HC algorithm, designed for avoiding important limitations of existing independence-based algorithms. These algorithms proceed by performing statistical independence tests on data, trusting completely the outcome of each test. In practice tests may be incorrect, resulting in potential cascading errors and the consequent reduction in the quality of the structures learned. IBMAP contemplates this uncertainty in the outcome of the tests through a probabilistic maximum-a-posteriori approach. The approach is instantiated in the IBMAP-HC algorithm, a structure selection strategy that performs a polynomial heuristic local search in the space of possible structures. We present an extensive empirical evaluation on synthetic and real data, showing that our algorithm outperforms significantly the current independence-based algorithms, in terms of data efficiency and quality of learned structures, with equivalent computational complexities. We also show the performance of IBMAP-HC in a real-world application of knowledge discovery: EDAs, which are evolutionary algorithms that use structure learning on each generation for modeling the distribution of populations. The experiments show that when IBMAP-HC is used to learn the structure, EDAs improve the convergence to the optimum.

Sample size determination for a data set is an important statistical process for analyzing the data to an optimum level of accuracy and using minimum computational work. The applications of this process are credible in every domain which deals with large data sets and high computational work. This study uses Bayesian analysis for determination of minimum sample size of vibration signals to be considered for fault diagnosis of a bearing using pre-defined parameters such as the inverse standard probability and the acceptable margin of error. Thus an analytical formula for sample size determination is introduced. The fault diagnosis of the bearing is done using a machine learning approach using an entropy-based J48 algorithm. The following method will help researchers involved in fault diagnosis to determine minimum sample size of data for analysis for a good statistical stability and precision.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy exploits the magnetic properties of atomic nuclei to discover the structure, reaction state and chemical environment of molecules. We propose a probabilistic generative model and inference procedures for NMR spectroscopy. Specifically, we use a weighted sum of trigonometric functions undergoing exponential decay to model free induction decay (FID) signals. We discuss the challenges in estimating the components of this general model -- amplitudes, phase shifts, frequencies, decay rates, and noise variances -- and offer practical solutions. We compare with conventional Fourier transform spectroscopy for estimating the relative concentrations of chemicals in a mixture, using synthetic and experimentally acquired FID signals. We find the proposed model is particularly robust to low signal to noise ratios (SNR), and overlapping peaks in the Fourier transform of the FID, enabling accurate predictions (e.g., 1% sensitivity at low SNR) which are not possible with conventional spectroscopy (5% sensitivity).