Bayesian Learning
Real-Time Inference for a Gamma Process Model of Neural Spiking
Carlson, David E., Rao, Vinayak, Vogelstein, Joshua T., Carin, Lawrence
With simultaneous measurements from ever increasing populations of neurons, there is a growing need for sophisticated tools to recover signals from individual neurons. In electrophysiology experiments, this classically proceeds in a two-step process: (i) threshold the waveforms to detect putative spikes and (ii) cluster the waveforms into single units (neurons). We extend previous Bayesian nonparamet- ric models of neural spiking to jointly detect and cluster neurons using a Gamma process model. Importantly, we develop an online approximate inference scheme enabling real-time analysis, with performance exceeding the previous state-of-the- art. Via exploratory data analysis—using data with partial ground truth as well as two novel data sets—we find several features of our model collectively contribute to our improved performance including: (i) accounting for colored noise, (ii) de- tecting overlapping spikes, (iii) tracking waveform dynamics, and (iv) using mul- tiple channels. We hope to enable novel experiments simultaneously measuring many thousands of neurons and possibly adapting stimuli dynamically to probe ever deeper into the mysteries of the brain.
Bayesian Inference and Learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models with Particle MCMC
Frigola, Roger, Lindsten, Fredrik, Schön, Thomas B., Rasmussen, Carl Edward
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference and learning in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gaussian process prior over the transition dynamics, resulting in a flexible model able to capture complex dynamical phenomena. However, to enable efficient inference, we marginalize over the dynamics of the model and instead infer directly the joint smoothing distribution through the use of specially tailored Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers. Once an approximation of the smoothing distribution is computed, the state transition predictive distribution can be formulated analytically. We make use of sparse Gaussian process models to greatly reduce the computational complexity of the approach.
Stochastic Gradient Riemannian Langevin Dynamics on the Probability Simplex
In this paper we investigate the use of Langevin Monte Carlo methods on the probability simplex and propose a new method, Stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin dynamics, which is simple to implement and can be applied to large scale data. We apply this method to latent Dirichlet allocation in an online minibatch setting,and demonstrate that it achieves substantial performance improvements overthe state of the art online variational Bayesian methods.
Learning Stochastic Inverses
Stuhlmüller, Andreas, Taylor, Jacob, Goodman, Noah
We describe a class of algorithms for amortized inference in Bayesian networks. In this setting, we invest computation upfront to support rapid online inference for a wide range of queries. Our approach is based on learning an inverse factorization of a model's joint distribution: a factorization that turns observations into root nodes. Our algorithms accumulate information to estimate the local conditional distributions that constitute such a factorization. These stochastic inverses can be used to invert each of the computation steps leading to an observation, sampling backwards in order to quickly find a likely explanation. We show that estimated inverses converge asymptotically in number of (prior or posterior) training samples. To make use of inverses before convergence, we describe the Inverse MCMC algorithm, which uses stochastic inverses to make block proposals for a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We explore the efficiency of this sampler for a variety of parameter regimes and Bayes nets.
Variational Planning for Graph-based MDPs
Cheng, Qiang, Liu, Qiang, Chen, Feng, Ihler, Alexander T.
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extremely useful for modeling and solving sequential decision making problems. Graph-based MDPs provide a compact representation for MDPs with large numbers of random variables. However, the complexity of exactly solving a graph-based MDP usually grows exponentially in the number of variables, which limits their application. We present a new varia-tional framework to describe and solve the planning problem of MDPs, and derive both exact and approximate planning algorithms. In particular, by exploiting the graph structure of graph-based MDPs, we propose a factored variational value iteration algorithm in which the value function is first approximated by the multiplication of local-scope value functions, then solved by minimizing a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The KL divergence is optimized using the belief propagation algorithm, with complexity exponential in only the cluster size of the graph. Experimental comparison on different models shows that our algorithm outperforms existing approximation algorithms at finding good policies.
On the Complexity and Approximation of Binary Evidence in Lifted Inference
Broeck, Guy Van den, Darwiche, Adnan
Lifted inference algorithms exploit symmetries in probabilistic models to speed up inference. They show impressive performance when calculating unconditional probabilities in relational models, but often resort to non-lifted inference when computing conditional probabilities. The reason is that conditioning on evidence breaks many of the model's symmetries, which preempts standard lifting techniques. Recent theoretical results show, for example, that conditioning on evidence which corresponds to binary relations is #P-hard, suggesting that no lifting is to be expected in the worst case. In this paper, we balance this grim result by identifying the Boolean rank of the evidence as a key parameter for characterizing the complexity of conditioning in lifted inference. In particular, we show that conditioning on binary evidence with bounded Boolean rank is efficient. This opens up the possibility of approximating evidence by a low-rank Boolean matrix factorization, which we investigate both theoretically and empirically.
Analyzing Hogwild Parallel Gaussian Gibbs Sampling
Johnson, Matthew, Saunderson, James, Willsky, Alan
Sampling inference methods are computationally difficult to scale for many models in part because global dependencies can reduce opportunities for parallel computation. Without strict conditional independence structure among variables, standard Gibbs sampling theory requires sample updates to be performed sequentially, even if dependence between most variables is not strong. Empirical work has shown that some models can be sampled effectively by going Hogwild'' and simply running Gibbs updates in parallel with only periodic global communication, but the successes and limitations of such a strategy are not well understood. As a step towards such an understanding, we study the Hogwild Gibbs sampling strategy in the context of Gaussian distributions. We develop a framework which provides convergence conditions and error bounds along with simple proofs and connections to methods in numerical linear algebra. In particular, we show that if the Gaussian precision matrix is generalized diagonally dominant, then any Hogwild Gibbs sampler, with any update schedule or allocation of variables to processors, yields a stable sampling process with the correct sample mean. "
Bayesian inference for low rank spatiotemporal neural receptive fields
Park, Mijung, Pillow, Jonathan W.
The receptive field (RF) of a sensory neuron describes how the neuron integrates sensory stimuli over time and space. In typical experiments with naturalistic or flickering spatiotemporal stimuli, RFs are very high-dimensional, due to the large number of coefficients needed to specify an integration profile across time and space. Estimating these coefficients from small amounts of data poses a variety of challenging statistical and computational problems. Here we address these challenges by developing Bayesian reduced rank regression methods for RF estimation. This corresponds to modeling the RF as a sum of several space-time separable (i.e., rank-1) filters, which proves accurate even for neurons with strongly oriented space-time RFs. This approach substantially reduces the number of parameters needed to specify the RF, from 1K-100K down to mere 100s in the examples we consider, and confers substantial benefits in statistical power and computational efficiency. In particular, we introduce a novel prior over low-rank RFs using the restriction of a matrix normal prior to the manifold of low-rank matrices. We then use a localized'' prior over row and column covariances to obtain sparse, smooth, localized estimates of the spatial and temporal RF components. We develop two methods for inference in the resulting hierarchical model: (1) a fully Bayesian method using blocked-Gibbs sampling; and (2) a fast, approximate method that employs alternating coordinate ascent of the conditional marginal likelihood. We develop these methods under Gaussian and Poisson noise models, and show that low-rank estimates substantially outperform full rank estimates in accuracy and speed using neural data from retina and V1."
Policy Shaping: Integrating Human Feedback with Reinforcement Learning
Griffith, Shane, Subramanian, Kaushik, Scholz, Jonathan, Isbell, Charles L., Thomaz, Andrea L.
A long term goal of Interactive Reinforcement Learning is to incorporate non-expert human feedback to solve complex tasks. State-of-the-art methods have approached this problem by mapping human information to reward and value signals to indicate preferences and then iterating over them to compute the necessary control policy. In this paper we argue for an alternate, more effective characterization of human feedback: Policy Shaping. We introduce Advise, a Bayesian approach that attempts to maximize the information gained from human feedback by utilizing it as direct labels on the policy. We compare Advise to state-of-the-art approaches and highlight scenarios where it outperforms them and importantly is robust to infrequent and inconsistent human feedback.
Probabilistic Movement Primitives
Paraschos, Alexandros, Daniel, Christian, Peters, Jan R., Neumann, Gerhard
Movement Primitives (MP) are a well-established approach for representing modular and re-usable robot movement generators. Many state-of-the-art robot learning successes are based MPs, due to their compact representation of the inherently continuous and high dimensional robot movements. A major goal in robot learning is to combine multiple MPs as building blocks in a modular control architecture to solve complex tasks. To this effect, a MP representation has to allow for blending between motions, adapting to altered task variables, and co-activating multiple MPs in parallel. We present a probabilistic formulation of the MP concept that maintains a distribution over trajectories. Our probabilistic approach allows for the derivation of new operations which are essential for implementing all aforementioned properties in one framework. In order to use such a trajectory distribution for robot movement control, we analytically derive a stochastic feedback controller which reproduces the given trajectory distribution. We evaluate and compare our approach to existing methods on several simulated as well as real robot scenarios.