Twitter, as a popular microblogging service, has become a new information channel for users to receive and exchange the mostup-to-date information on current events. However, since there is no control on how users can publish messages on Twitter, finding newsworthy events from Twitter becomes a difficult task like "finding a needle in a haystack". In this paper we propose a general unsupervised framework to explore events from tweets, which consists of a pipeline process of filtering, extraction and categorization. To filter out noisy tweets, the filtering step exploits a lexicon-based approach to separate tweets that are event-related from those that are not. Then, based on these event-related tweets, the structured representations of events are extracted and categorized automatically using an unsupervised Bayesian model without the use of any labelled data. Moreover, the categorized events are assigned with the event type labels without human intervention. The proposed framework has been evaluated on over 60 millions tweets which were collected for one month in December 2010. A precision of 70.49% is achieved in event extraction, outperforming a competitive baseline by nearly 6%. Events are also clustered into coherence groups with the automatically assigned event type label.

Latent author attribute prediction in social media provides a novel set of conditions for the construction of supervised classification models. With individual authors as training and test instances, their associated content ("features") are made available incrementally over time, as they converse over discussion forums. We propose various approaches to handling this dynamic data, from traditional batch training and testing, to incremental bootstrapping, and then active learning via crowdsourcing. Our underlying model relies on an intuitive application of Bayes rule, which should be easy to adopt by the community, thus allowing for a general shift towards online modeling for social media.

We present a probabilistic model for tensor decomposition where one or more tensor modes may have side-information about the mode entities in form of their features and/or their adjacency network. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Canonical PARAFAC (CP) decomposition and enrich this single-layer decomposition approach with a two-layer decomposition. The second layer fits a factor model for each layer-one factor matrix and models the factor matrix via the mode entities' features and/or the network between the mode entities. The second-layer decomposition of each factor matrix also learns a binary latent representation for the entities of that mode, which can be useful in its own right. Our model can handle both continuous as well as binary tensor observations. Another appealing aspect of our model is the simplicity of the model inference, with easy-to-sample Gibbs updates. We demonstrate the results of our model on several benchmarks datasets, consisting of both real and binary tensors.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) provides a formal framework for optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, it is generally intractable to find the Bayes-optimal behavior except for restricted cases. As a consequence, many BRL algorithms, model-based approaches in particular, rely on approximated models or real-time search methods. In this paper, we present potential-based shaping for improving the learning performance in model-based BRL. We propose a number of potential functions that are particularly well suited for BRL, and are domain-independent in the sense that they do not require any prior knowledge about the actual environment. By incorporating the potential function into real-time heuristic search, we show that we can significantly improve the learning performance in standard benchmark domains.

Bayesian decision-theory underpins robust decision-making in applications ranging from plant control to robotics where hedging action selection against state uncertainty is critical for minimizing low probability but potentially catastrophic outcomes (e.g, uncontrollable plant conditions or robots falling into stairwells). Unfortunately, belief state distributions in such settings are often complex and/or high dimensional, thus prohibiting the efficient application of analytical techniques for expected utility computation when real-time control is required. This leaves Monte Carlo evaluation as one of the few viable (and hence frequently used) techniques for online action selection. However, loss-insensitive Monte Carlo methods may require large numbers of samples to identify optimal actions with high certainty since they may sample from highprobability regions that do not disambiguate action utilities. In this paper we remedy this problem by deriving an optimal proposal distribution for a loss-calibrated Monte Carlo importance sampler that bounds the regret of using an estimated optimal action. Empirically, we show that using our loss-calibrated Monte Carlo method yields high-accuracy optimal action selections in a fraction of the number of samples required by conventional loss-insensitive samplers.

Manually labeling documents for training a text classifier is expensive and time-consuming. Moreover, a classifier trained on labeled documents may suffer from overfitting and adaptability problems. Dataless text classification (DLTC) has been proposed as a solution to these problems, since it does not require labeled documents. Previous research in DLTC has used explicit semantic analysis of Wikipedia content to measure semantic distance between documents, which is in turn used to classify test documents based on nearest neighbours. The semantic-based DLTC method has a major drawback in that it relies on a large-scale, finely-compiled semantic knowledge base, which is difficult to obtain in many scenarios. In this paper we propose a novel kind of model, descriptive LDA (DescLDA), which performs DLTC with only category description words and unlabeled documents. In DescLDA, the LDA model is assembled with a describing device to infer Dirichlet priors from prior descriptive documents created with category description words. The Dirichlet priors are then used by LDA to induce category-aware latent topics from unlabeled documents. Experimental results with the 20Newsgroups and RCV1 datasets show that: (1) our DLTC method is more effective than the semantic-based DLTC baseline method; and (2) the accuracy of our DLTC method is very close to state-of-the-art supervised text classification methods. As neither external knowledge resources nor labeled documents are required, our DLTC method is applicable to a wider range of scenarios.

In the analysis and diagnosis of many diseases, such as the Alzheimer's disease (AD), two important and related tasks are usually required: i) selecting genetic and phenotypical markers for diagnosis, and ii) identifying associations between genetic and phenotypical features. While previous studies treat these two tasks separately, they are tightly coupled due to the same underlying biological basis. To harness their potential benefits for each other, we propose a new sparse Bayesian approach to jointly carry out the two important and related tasks. In our approach, we extract common latent features from different data sources by sparse projection matrices and then use the latent features to predict disease severity levels; in return, the disease status can guide the learning of sparse projection matrices, which not only reveal interactions between data sources but also select groups of related biomarkers. In order to boost the learning of sparse projection matrices, we further incorporate graph Laplacian priors encoding the valuable linkage disequilibrium (LD) information. To efficiently estimate the model, we develop a variational inference algorithm. Analysis on an imaging genetics dataset for AD study shows that our model discovers biologically meaningful associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features, and achieves significantly higher accuracy for predicting ordinal AD stages than competitive methods.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) provides a principled framework for optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in reinforcement learning. We focus on model based BRL, which involves a compact formulation of the optimal tradeoff from the Bayesian perspective. However, it still remains a computational challenge to compute the Bayes-optimal policy. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to compute tighter value function bounds of the Bayes-optimal value function, which is crucial for improving the performance of many model-based BRL algorithms. We then present how our bounds can be integrated into real-time AO* heuristic search, and provide a theoretical analysis on the impact of improved bounds on the search efficiency. We also provide empirical results on standard BRL domains that demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Naive Bayes (NB) is well-known to be a simple but effective classifier, especially when combined with feature selection. Unfortunately, feature selection methods are often greedy and thus cannot guarantee an optimal feature set is selected. An alternative to feature selection is to use Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which computes a weighted average over multiple predictors; when the different predictor models correspond to different feature sets, BMA has the advantage over feature selection that its predictions tend to have lower variance on average in comparison to any single model. In this paper, we show for the first time that it is possible to exactly evaluate BMA over the exponentially-sized powerset of NB feature models in linear-time in the number of features; this yields an algorithm about as expensive to train as a single NB model with all features, but yet provably converges to the globally optimal feature subset in the asymptotic limit of data. We evaluate this novel BMA-NB classifier on a range of datasets showing that it never underperforms NB (as expected) and sometimes offers performance competitive (or superior) to classifiers such as SVMs and logistic regression while taking a fraction of the time to train.

Supervised dimensionality reduction has shown great advantages in finding predictive subspaces. Previous methods rarely consider the popular maximum margin principle and are prone to overfitting to usually small training data, especially for those under the maximum likelihood framework. In this paper, we present a posterior-regularized Bayesian approach to combine Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the max-margin learning. Based on the data augmentation idea for max-margin learning and the probabilistic interpretation of PCA, our method can automatically infer the weight and penalty parameter of max-margin learning machine, while finding the most appropriate PCA subspace simultaneously under the Bayesian framework. We develop a fast mean-field variational inference algorithm to approximate the posterior. Experimental results on various classification tasks show that our method outperforms a number of competitors.