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 Bayesian Learning


Classification approach based on association rules mining for unbalanced data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper deals with the binary classification task when the target class has the lower probability of occurrence. In such situation, it is not possible to build a powerful classifier by using standard methods such as logistic regression, classification tree, discriminant analysis, etc. To overcome this short-coming of these methods which yield classifiers with low sensibility, we tackled the classification problem here through an approach based on the association rules learning. This approach has the advantage of allowing the identification of the patterns that are well correlated with the target class. Association rules learning is a well known method in the area of data-mining. It is used when dealing with large database for unsupervised discovery of local patterns that expresses hidden relationships between input variables. In considering association rules from a supervised learning point of view, a relevant set of weak classifiers is obtained from which one derives a classifier that performs well.


Generative Deep Deconvolutional Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A generative Bayesian model is developed for deep (multi-layer) convolutional dictionary learning. A novel probabilistic pooling operation is integrated into the deep model, yielding efficient bottom-up and top-down probabilistic learning. After learning the deep convolutional dictionary, testing is implemented via deconvolutional inference. To speed up this inference, a new statistical approach is proposed to project the top-layer dictionary elements to the data level. Following this, only one layer of deconvolution is required during testing. Experimental results demonstrate powerful capabilities of the model to learn multi-layer features from images. Excellent classification results are obtained on both the MNIST and Caltech 101 datasets.


Cost-Sensitive Support Vector Machines

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A new procedure for learning cost-sensitive SVM(CS-SVM) classifiers is proposed. The SVM hinge loss is extended to the cost sensitive setting, and the CS-SVM is derived as the minimizer of the associated risk. The extension of the hinge loss draws on recent connections between risk minimization and probability elicitation. These connections are generalized to cost-sensitive classification, in a manner that guarantees consistency with the cost-sensitive Bayes risk, and associated Bayes decision rule. This ensures that optimal decision rules, under the new hinge loss, implement the Bayes-optimal cost-sensitive classification boundary. Minimization of the new hinge loss is shown to be a generalization of the classic SVM optimization problem, and can be solved by identical procedures. The dual problem of CS-SVM is carefully scrutinized by means of regularization theory and sensitivity analysis and the CS-SVM algorithm is substantiated. The proposed algorithm is also extended to cost-sensitive learning with example dependent costs. The minimum cost sensitive risk is proposed as the performance measure and is connected to ROC analysis through vector optimization. The resulting algorithm avoids the shortcomings of previous approaches to cost-sensitive SVM design, and is shown to have superior experimental performance on a large number of cost sensitive and imbalanced datasets.


Bayesian Models of Graphs, Arrays and Other Exchangeable Random Structures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of this framework; many problems arising in modern data analysis do not. This article provides an introduction to Bayesian models of graphs, matrices, and other data that can be modeled by random structures. We describe results in probability theory that generalize de Finetti's theorem to such data and discuss their relevance to nonparametric Bayesian modeling. With the basic ideas in place, we survey example models available in the literature; applications of such models include collaborative filtering, link prediction, and graph and network analysis. We also highlight connections to recent developments in graph theory and probability, and sketch the more general mathematical foundation of Bayesian methods for other types of data beyond sequences and arrays.


Managing large-scale scientific hypotheses as uncertain and probabilistic data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In view of the paradigm shift that makes science ever more data-driven, in this thesis we propose a synthesis method for encoding and managing large-scale deterministic scientific hypotheses as uncertain and probabilistic data. In the form of mathematical equations, hypotheses symmetrically relate aspects of the studied phenomena. For computing predictions, however, deterministic hypotheses can be abstracted as functions. We build upon Simon's notion of structural equations in order to efficiently extract the (so-called) causal ordering between variables, implicit in a hypothesis structure (set of mathematical equations). We show how to process the hypothesis predictive structure effectively through original algorithms for encoding it into a set of functional dependencies (fd's) and then performing causal reasoning in terms of acyclic pseudo-transitive reasoning over fd's. Such reasoning reveals important causal dependencies implicit in the hypothesis predictive data and guide our synthesis of a probabilistic database. Like in the field of graphical models in AI, such a probabilistic database should be normalized so that the uncertainty arisen from competing hypotheses is decomposed into factors and propagated properly onto predictive data by recovering its joint probability distribution through a lossless join. That is motivated as a design-theoretic principle for data-driven hypothesis management and predictive analytics. The method is applicable to both quantitative and qualitative deterministic hypotheses and demonstrated in realistic use cases from computational science.


Off-policy evaluation for MDPs with unknown structure

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Off-policy learning in dynamic decision problems is essential for providing strong evidence that a new policy is better than the one in use. But how can we prove superiority without testing the new policy? To answer this question, we introduce the G-SCOPE algorithm that evaluates a new policy based on data generated by the existing policy. Our algorithm is both computationally and sample efficient because it greedily learns to exploit factored structure in the dynamics of the environment. We present a finite sample analysis of our approach and show through experiments that the algorithm scales well on high-dimensional problems with few samples.


Empirically Estimable Classification Bounds Based on a New Divergence Measure

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Information divergence functions play a critical role in statistics and information theory. In this paper we show that a non-parametric f-divergence measure can be used to provide improved bounds on the minimum binary classification probability of error for the case when the training and test data are drawn from the same distribution and for the case where there exists some mismatch between training and test distributions. We confirm the theoretical results by designing feature selection algorithms using the criteria from these bounds and by evaluating the algorithms on a series of pathological speech classification tasks.


Massively Multitask Networks for Drug Discovery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Massively multitask neural architectures provide a learning framework for drug discovery that synthesizes information from many distinct biological sources. To train these architectures at scale, we gather large amounts of data from public sources to create a dataset of nearly 40 million measurements across more than 200 biological targets. We investigate several aspects of the multitask framework by performing a series of empirical studies and obtain some interesting results: (1) massively multitask networks obtain predictive accuracies significantly better than single-task methods, (2) the predictive power of multitask networks improves as additional tasks and data are added, (3) the total amount of data and the total number of tasks both contribute significantly to multitask improvement, and (4) multitask networks afford limited transferability to tasks not in the training set. Our results underscore the need for greater data sharing and further algorithmic innovation to accelerate the drug discovery process.


A Confident Information First Principle for Parametric Reduction and Model Selection of Boltzmann Machines

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Typical dimensionality reduction (DR) methods are often data-oriented, focusing on directly reducing the number of random variables (features) while retaining the maximal variations in the high-dimensional data. In unsupervised situations, one of the main limitations of these methods lies in their dependency on the scale of data features. This paper aims to address the problem from a new perspective and considers model-oriented dimensionality reduction in parameter spaces of binary multivariate distributions. Specifically, we propose a general parameter reduction criterion, called Confident-Information-First (CIF) principle, to maximally preserve confident parameters and rule out less confident parameters. Formally, the confidence of each parameter can be assessed by its contribution to the expected Fisher information distance within the geometric manifold over the neighbourhood of the underlying real distribution. We then revisit Boltzmann machines (BM) from a model selection perspective and theoretically show that both the fully visible BM (VBM) and the BM with hidden units can be derived from the general binary multivariate distribution using the CIF principle. This can help us uncover and formalize the essential parts of the target density that BM aims to capture and the non-essential parts that BM should discard. Guided by the theoretical analysis, we develop a sample-specific CIF for model selection of BM that is adaptive to the observed samples. The method is studied in a series of density estimation experiments and has been shown effective in terms of the estimate accuracy.


Mesh Learning for Classifying Cognitive Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A relatively recent advance in cognitive neuroscience has been multi-voxel pattern analysis (MVPA), which enables researchers to decode brain states and/or the type of information represented in the brain during a cognitive operation. MVPA methods utilize machine learning algorithms to distinguish among types of information or cognitive states represented in the brain, based on distributed patterns of neural activity. In the current investigation, we propose a new approach for representation of neural data for pattern analysis, namely a Mesh Learning Model. In this approach, at each time instant, a star mesh is formed around each voxel, such that the voxel corresponding to the center node is surrounded by its p-nearest neighbors. The arc weights of each mesh are estimated from the voxel intensity values by least squares method. The estimated arc weights of all the meshes, called Mesh Arc Descriptors (MADs), are then used to train a classifier, such as Neural Networks, k-Nearest Neighbor, Na\"ive Bayes and Support Vector Machines. The proposed Mesh Model was tested on neuroimaging data acquired via functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a recognition memory experiment using categorized word lists, employing a previously established experimental paradigm (\"Oztekin & Badre, 2011). Results suggest that the proposed Mesh Learning approach can provide an effective algorithm for pattern analysis of brain activity during cognitive processing.