We treat the problem of estimation of orientation parameters whose values are invariant to transformations from a spherical symmetry group. Previous work has shown that any such group-invariant distribution must satisfy a restricted finite mixture representation, which allows the orientation parameter to be estimated using an Expectation Maximization (EM) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation algorithm. In this paper, we introduce two parametric models for this spherical symmetry group estimation problem: 1) the hyperbolic Von Mises Fisher (VMF) mixture distribution and 2) the Watson mixture distribution. We also introduce a new EM-ML algorithm for clustering samples that come from mixtures of group-invariant distributions with different parameters. We apply the models to the problem of mean crystal orientation estimation under the spherically symmetric group associated with the crystal form, e.g., cubic or octahedral or hexahedral. Simulations and experiments establish the advantages of the extended EM-VMF and EM-Watson estimators for data acquired by Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) microscopy of a polycrystalline Nickel alloy sample.

Model-based clustering imposes a finite mixture modelling structure on data for clustering. Finite mixture models assume that the population is a convex combination of a finite number of densities, the distribution within each population is a basic assumption of each particular model. Among all distributions that have been tried, the generalized hyperbolic distribution has the advantage that is a generalization of several other methods, such as the Gaussian distribution, the skew t-distribution, etc. With specific parameters, it can represent either a symmetric or a skewed distribution. While its inherent flexibility is an advantage in many ways, it means the estimation of more parameters than its special and limiting cases. The aim of this work is to propose a mixture of generalized hyperbolic factor analyzers to introduce parsimony and extend the method to high dimensional data. This work can be seen as an extension of the mixture of factor analyzers model to generalized hyperbolic mixtures. The performance of our generalized hyperbolic factor analyzers is illustrated on real data, where it performs favourably compared to its Gaussian analogue.

Two recently introduced criteria for estimation of generative models are both based on a reduction to binary classification. Noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) is an estimation procedure in which a generative model is trained to be able to distinguish data samples from noise samples. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are pairs of generator and discriminator networks, with the generator network learning to generate samples by attempting to fool the discriminator network into believing its samples are real data. Both estimation procedures use the same function to drive learning, which naturally raises questions about how they are related to each other, as well as whether this function is related to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). NCE corresponds to training an internal data model belonging to the {\em discriminator} network but using a fixed generator network. We show that a variant of NCE, with a dynamic generator network, is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation. Since pairing a learned discriminator with an appropriate dynamically selected generator recovers MLE, one might expect the reverse to hold for pairing a learned generator with a certain discriminator. However, we show that recovering MLE for a learned generator requires departing from the distinguishability game. Specifically: (i) The expected gradient of the NCE discriminator can be made to match the expected gradient of MLE, if one is allowed to use a non-stationary noise distribution for NCE, (ii) No choice of discriminator network can make the expected gradient for the GAN generator match that of MLE, and (iii) The existing theory does not guarantee that GANs will converge in the non-convex case. This suggests that the key next step in GAN research is to determine whether GANs converge, and if not, to modify their training algorithm to force convergence.

We introduce a new, efficient, principled and backpropagation-compatible algorithm for learning a probability distribution on the weights of a neural network, called Bayes by Backprop. It regularises the weights by minimising a compression cost, known as the variational free energy or the expected lower bound on the marginal likelihood. We show that this principled kind of regularisation yields comparable performance to dropout on MNIST classification. We then demonstrate how the learnt uncertainty in the weights can be used to improve generalisation in non-linear regression problems, and how this weight uncertainty can be used to drive the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning.

By expressing prior distributions as general stochastic processes, nonparametric Bayesian methods provide a flexible way to incorporate prior knowledge and constrain the latent structure in statistical inference. The Indian buffet process (IBP) is such an example that can be used to define a prior distribution on infinite binary features, where the exchangeability among subjects is assumed. The phylogenetic Indian buffet process (pIBP), a derivative of IBP, enables the modeling of non-exchangeability among subjects through a stochastic process on a rooted tree, which is similar to that used in phylogenetics, to describe relationships among the subjects. In this paper, we study the theoretical properties of IBP and pIBP under a binary factor model. We establish the posterior contraction rates for both IBP and pIBP and substantiate the theoretical results through simulation studies. This is the first work addressing the frequentist property of the posterior behaviors of IBP and pIBP. We also demonstrated its practical usefulness by applying pIBP prior to a real data example arising in the field of cancer genomics where the exchangeability among subjects is violated.

Common statistical practice has shown that the full power of Bayesian methods is not realized until hierarchical priors are used, as these allow for greater "robustness" and the ability to "share statistical strength." Yet it is an ongoing challenge to provide a learning-theoretically sound formalism of such notions that: offers practical guidance concerning when and how best to utilize hierarchical models; provides insights into what makes for a good hierarchical prior; and, when the form of the prior has been chosen, can guide the choice of hyperparameter settings. We present a set of analytical tools for understanding hierarchical priors in both the online and batch learning settings. We provide regret bounds under log-loss, which show how certain hierarchical models compare, in retrospect, to the best single model in the model class. We also show how to convert a Bayesian log-loss regret bound into a Bayesian risk bound for any bounded loss, a result which may be of independent interest. Risk and regret bounds for Student's $t$ and hierarchical Gaussian priors allow us to formalize the concepts of "robustness" and "sharing statistical strength." Priors for feature selection are investigated as well. Our results suggest that the learning-theoretic benefits of using hierarchical priors can often come at little cost on practical problems.

Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of variational inference and Monte Carlo methods where we incorporate one or more steps of MCMC into our variational approximation. By doing so we obtain a rich class of inference algorithms bridging the gap between variational methods and MCMC, and offering the best of both worlds: fast posterior approximation through the maximization of an explicit objective, with the option of trading off additional computation for additional accuracy. We describe the theoretical foundations that make this possible and show some promising first results.

We consider the problem of discriminative factor analysis for data that are in general non-Gaussian. A Bayesian model based on the ranks of the data is proposed. We first introduce a new {\em max-margin} version of the rank-likelihood. A discriminative factor model is then developed, integrating the max-margin rank-likelihood and (linear) Bayesian support vector machines, which are also built on the max-margin principle. The discriminative factor model is further extended to the {\em nonlinear} case through mixtures of local linear classifiers, via Dirichlet processes. Fully local conjugacy of the model yields efficient inference with both Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes approaches. Extensive experiments on benchmark and real data demonstrate superior performance of the proposed model and its potential for applications in computational biology.

When can reliable inference be drawn in the "Big Data" context? This paper presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, with implications for general large scale inference. In large scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics the dataset is often variable-rich but sample-starved: a regime where the number $n$ of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than the number $p$ of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for "Big Data." Sample complexity however has received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size $n$ is fixed, and the dimension $p$ grows without bound. To address this gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where the variable dimension is fixed and the sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; 3) the purely high dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa-scale data dimension. We illustrate this high dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables that are of interest. We demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks.

We show that the only parameter prior for complete Gaussian DAG models that satisfies global parameter independence, complete model equivalence, and some weak regularity assumptions, is the normal-Wishart distribution. Our analysis is based on the following new characterization of the Wishart distribution: let W be an n x n, n >= 3, positive-definite symmetric matrix of random variables and f(W) be a pdf of W. Then, f(W) is a Wishart distribution if and only if W_{11}-W_{12}W_{22}^{-1}W_{12}' is independent of {W_{12}, W_{22}} for every block partitioning W_{11}, W_{12}, W_{12}', W_{22} of W. Similar characterizations of the normal and normal-Wishart distributions are provided as well. We also show how to construct a prior for every DAG model over X from the prior of a single regression model.