The Rashomon set of decision trees (DTs) finds importance uses. Recent work showed that DTs computing the same classification function, i.e. predictive equivalent DTs, can represent a significant fraction of the Rashomon set. Such redundancy is undesirable. For example, feature importance based on the Rashomon set becomes inaccurate due the existence of predictive equivalent DTs, i.e. DTs with the same prediction for every possible input. In recent work, McTavish et al. proposed solutions for several computational problems related with DTs, including that of deciding predictive equivalent DTs. The approach of McTavish et al. consists of applying the well-known method of Quine-McCluskey (QM) for obtaining minimum-size DNF (disjunctive normal form) representations of DTs, which are then used for comparing DTs for predictive equivalence. Furthermore, the minimum-size DNF representation was also applied to computing explanations for the predictions made by DTs, and to finding predictions in the presence of missing data. However, the problem of formula minimization is hard for the second level of the polynomial hierarchy, and the QM method may exhibit worst-case exponential running time and space. This paper first demonstrates that there exist decision trees that trigger the worst-case exponential running time and space of the QM method. Second, the paper shows that the QM method may incorrectly decide predictive equivalence, if two key constraints are not respected, and one may be difficult to formally guarantee. Third, the paper shows that any of the problems to which the smallest DNF representation has been applied to can be solved in polynomial time, in the size of the DT. The experiments confirm that, for DTs for which the worst-case of the QM method is triggered, the algorithms proposed in this paper are orders of magnitude faster than the ones proposed by McTavish et al.

Causal discovery methods can identify valid adjustment sets for causal effect estimation for a pair of target variables, even when the underlying causal graph is unknown. Global causal discovery methods focus on learning the whole causal graph and therefore enable the recovery of optimal adjustment sets, i.e., sets with the lowest asymptotic variance, but they quickly become computationally prohibitive as the number of variables grows. Local causal discovery methods offer a more scalable alternative by focusing on the local neighborhood of the target variables, but are restricted to statistically suboptimal adjustment sets. In this work, we propose Local Optimal Adjustments Discovery (LOAD), a sound and complete causal discovery approach that combines the computational efficiency of local methods with the statistical optimality of global methods. First, LOAD identifies the causal relation between the targets and tests if the causal effect is identifiable by using only local information. If it is identifiable, it then finds the optimal adjustment set by leveraging local causal discovery to infer the mediators and their parents. Otherwise, it returns the locally valid parent adjustment sets based on the learned local structure. In our experiments on synthetic and realistic data LOAD outperforms global methods in scalability, while providing more accurate effect estimation than local methods.

In a mixture of linear regression model, the regression coefficients are treated as random vectors that may follow either a continuous or discrete distribution. We propose two Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms to estimate this prior distribution. The first algorithm solves a kernelized version of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE). This method not only recovers continuous prior distributions but also accurately estimates the number of clusters when the prior is discrete. The second algorithm, designed to approximate the NPMLE, targets prior distributions with a density. It also performs well for discrete priors when combined with a post-processing step. We study the convergence properties of both algorithms and demonstrate their effectiveness through simulations and applications to real datasets.

Thus, they are widely used in several applications, including computer vision, computational biology, and spatial statistics [2, 3, 4]. In a PGM, random variables are associated with the vertices of a graph, while edges encode statistical dependencies. The meaning of the edges depend on the graph type: Bayesian Networks capture directional dependencies through directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) [5], whereas Markov Random Fields (MRFs) model symmetric conditional dependencies with undirected graphs, thanks to the Markov property [6]. A well-studied family is Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRFs), i.e., MRFs that model Gaussian random variables [7]. Indeed, conditional dependencies in the Gaussian distribution are encoded by the precision matrix, thus allowing to learn GMRF from data with efficient algorithms [8]. However, PGMs are inherently limited to graphs. First, PGMs typically associate random variables with individual nodes (sets of cardinality one), while in many settings random quantities naturally relates with larger sets. Examples include data traffic in communication networks or water flows in distribution networks, where measurements are collected on the links of the networks [9, 10, 11]. Second, PGMs are restricted to modeling pairwise dependencies via edges.

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection is a cornerstone for the safe deployment of AI systems in the open world. However, existing methods treat OOD detection as a binary classification problem, a cognitive flattening that fails to distinguish between semantically close (Near-OOD) and distant (Far-OOD) unknown risks. This limitation poses a significant safety bottleneck in applications requiring fine-grained risk stratification. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift from a conventional probabilistic view to a principled information-theoretic framework. We formalize the core task as quantifying the Semantic Surprise of a new sample and introduce a novel ternary classification challenge: In-Distribution (ID) vs. Near-OOD vs. Far-OOD. The theoretical foundation of our work is the concept of Low-Entropy Semantic Manifolds, which are explicitly structured to reflect the data's intrinsic semantic hierarchy. To construct these manifolds, we design a Hierarchical Prototypical Network. We then introduce the Semantic Surprise Vector (SSV), a universal probe that decomposes a sample's total surprise into three complementary and interpretable dimensions: conformity, novelty, and ambiguity. To evaluate performance on this new task, we propose the Normalized Semantic Risk (nSR), a cost-sensitive metric. Experiments demonstrate that our framework not only establishes a new state-of-the-art (sota) on the challenging ternary task, but its robust representations also achieve top results on conventional binary benchmarks, reducing the False Positive Rate by over 60% on datasets like LSUN.

Uncertainty quantification is critical for ensuring robustness in high-stakes machine learning applications. We introduce HybridFlow, a modular hybrid architecture that unifies the modeling of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by combining a Conditional Masked Autoregressive normalizing flow for estimating aleatoric uncertainty with a flexible probabilistic predictor for epistemic uncertainty. The framework supports integration with any probabilistic model class, allowing users to easily adapt HybridFlow to existing architectures without sacrificing predictive performance. HybridFlow improves upon previous uncertainty quantification frameworks across a range of regression tasks, such as depth estimation, a collection of regression benchmarks, and a scientific case study of ice sheet emulation. We also provide empirical results of the quantified uncertainty, showing that the uncertainty quantified by HybridFlow is calibrated and better aligns with model error than existing methods for quantifying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. HybridFlow addresses a key challenge in Bayesian deep learning, unifying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty modeling in a single robust framework.

Asymptotic efficiency theory is one of the pillars in the foundations of modern mathematical statistics. Not only does it serve as a rigorous theoretical benchmark for evaluating statistical methods, but it also sheds light on how to develop and unify novel statistical procedures. For example, the calculus of influence functions has led to many important statistical breakthroughs in the past decades. Responding to the pressing challenge of analyzing increasingly complex datasets, particularly those with non-Euclidean/nonlinear structures, many novel statistical models and methods have been proposed in recent years. However, the existing efficiency theory is not always readily applicable to these cases, as the theory was developed, for the most part, under the often neglected premise that both the sample space and the parameter space are normed linear spaces. As a consequence, efficiency results outside normed linear spaces are quite rare and isolated, obtained on a case-by-case basis. This paper aims to develop a more unified asymptotic efficiency theory, allowing the sample space, the parameter space, or both to be Riemannian manifolds satisfying certain regularity conditions. We build a vocabulary that helps translate essential concepts in efficiency theory from normed linear spaces to Riemannian manifolds, such as (locally) regular estimators, differentiable functionals, etc. Efficiency bounds are established under conditions parallel to those for normed linear spaces. We also demonstrate the conceptual advantage of the new framework by applying it to two concrete examples in statistics: the population Frechet mean and the regression coefficient vector of Single-Index Models.

We study neural network compressibility by using singular learning theory to extend the minimum description length (MDL) principle to singular models like neural networks. Through extensive experiments on the Pythia suite with quantization, factorization, and other compression techniques, we find that complexity estimates based on the local learning coefficient (LLC) are closely, and in some cases, linearly correlated with compressibility. Our results provide a path toward rigorously evaluating the limits of model compression.

We develop a unified statistical framework for softmax-gated Gaussian mixture of experts (SGMoE) that addresses three long-standing obstacles in parameter estimation and model selection: (i) non-identifiability of gating parameters up to common translations, (ii) intrinsic gate-expert interactions that induce coupled differential relations in the likelihood, and (iii) the tight numerator-denominator coupling in the softmax-induced conditional density. Our approach introduces Voronoi-type loss functions aligned with the gate-partition geometry and establishes finite-sample convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In over-specified models, we reveal a link between the MLE's convergence rate and the solvability of an associated system of polynomial equations characterizing near-nonidentifiable directions. For model selection, we adapt dendrograms of mixing measures to SGMoE, yielding a consistent, sweep-free selector of the number of experts that attains pointwise-optimal parameter rates under overfitting while avoiding multi-size training. Simulations on synthetic data corroborate the theory, accurately recovering the expert count and achieving the predicted rates for parameter estimation while closely approximating the regression function. Under model misspecification (e.g., $ε$-contamination), the dendrogram selection criterion is robust, recovering the true number of mixture components, while the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the integrated completed likelihood tend to overselect as sample size grows. On a maize proteomics dataset of drought-responsive traits, our dendrogram-guided SGMoE selects two experts, exposes a clear mixing-measure hierarchy, stabilizes the likelihood early, and yields interpretable genotype-phenotype maps, outperforming standard criteria without multi-size training.

With advancements in reasoning capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed for automated judgment tasks. While LLMs-as-Judges offer promise in automating evaluations, current approaches often rely on simplistic aggregation methods (e.g., majority voting), which can fail even when individual agents provide correct answers. To address this, we propose a multi-agent debate judge framework where agents collaboratively reason and iteratively refine their responses. We formalize the debate process mathematically, analyzing agent interactions and proving that debate amplifies correctness compared to static ensembles. To enhance efficiency, we introduce a stability detection mechanism that models judge consensus dynamics via a time-varying Beta-Binomial mixture, with adaptive stopping based on distributional similarity (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test). This mechanism models the judges' collective correct rate dynamics using a time-varying mixture of Beta-Binomial distributions and employs an adaptive stopping criterion based on distributional similarity (Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic). Experiments across multiple benchmarks and models demonstrate that our framework improves judgment accuracy over majority voting while maintaining computational efficiency.