We compare in this paper several feature selection methods for the Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC) when the data under study are described by a large number of redundant binary indicators. Wrapper approaches guided by the NBC estimation of the classification error probability out-perform filter approaches while retaining a reasonable computational cost.

Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult to automate. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). The user only provides a Bayesian model and a dataset; nothing else. We make no conjugacy assumptions and support a broad class of models. The algorithm automatically determines an appropriate variational family and optimizes the variational objective. We implement ADVI in Stan (code available now), a probabilistic programming framework. We compare ADVI to MCMC sampling across hierarchical generalized linear models, nonconjugate matrix factorization, and a mixture model. We train the mixture model on a quarter million images. With ADVI we can use variational inference on any model we write in Stan.

We propose rectified factor networks (RFNs) to efficiently construct very sparse, non-linear, high-dimensional representations of the input. RFN models identify rare and small events in the input, have a low interference between code units, have a small reconstruction error, and explain the data covariance structure. RFN learning is a generalized alternating minimization algorithm derived from the posterior regularization method which enforces non-negative and normalized posterior means. We proof convergence and correctness of the RFN learning algorithm. On benchmarks, RFNs are compared to other unsupervised methods like autoencoders, RBMs, factor analysis, ICA, and PCA. In contrast to previous sparse coding methods, RFNs yield sparser codes, capture the data's covariance structure more precisely, and have a significantly smaller reconstruction error. We test RFNs as pretraining technique for deep networks on different vision datasets, where RFNs were superior to RBMs and autoencoders. On gene expression data from two pharmaceutical drug discovery studies, RFNs detected small and rare gene modules that revealed highly relevant new biological insights which were so far missed by other unsupervised methods.

We present a Bayesian tensor factorization model for inferring latent group structures from dynamic pairwise interaction patterns. For decades, political scientists have collected and analyzed records of the form "country $i$ took action $a$ toward country $j$ at time $t$"---known as dyadic events---in order to form and test theories of international relations. We represent these event data as a tensor of counts and develop Bayesian Poisson tensor factorization to infer a low-dimensional, interpretable representation of their salient patterns. We demonstrate that our model's predictive performance is better than that of standard non-negative tensor factorization methods. We also provide a comparison of our variational updates to their maximum likelihood counterparts. In doing so, we identify a better way to form point estimates of the latent factors than that typically used in Bayesian Poisson matrix factorization. Finally, we showcase our model as an exploratory analysis tool for political scientists. We show that the inferred latent factor matrices capture interpretable multilateral relations that both conform to and inform our knowledge of international affairs.

Corrupting the input and hidden layers of deep neural networks (DNNs) with multiplicative noise, often drawn from the Bernoulli distribution (or 'dropout'), provides regularization that has significantly contributed to deep learning's success. However, understanding how multiplicative corruptions prevent overfitting has been difficult due to the complexity of a DNN's functional form. In this paper, we show that when a Gaussian prior is placed on a DNN's weights, applying multiplicative noise induces a Gaussian scale mixture, which can be reparameterized to circumvent the problematic likelihood function. Analysis can then proceed by using a type-II maximum likelihood procedure to derive a closed-form expression revealing how regularization evolves as a function of the network's weights. Results show that multiplicative noise forces weights to become either sparse or invariant to rescaling. We find our analysis has implications for model compression as it naturally reveals a weight pruning rule that starkly contrasts with the commonly used signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). While the SNR prunes weights with large variances, seeing them as noisy, our approach recognizes their robustness and retains them. We empirically demonstrate our approach has a strong advantage over the SNR heuristic and is competitive to retraining with soft targets produced from a teacher model.

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large datasets typical of modern machine learning. The recently proposed consensus Monte Carlo algorithm removes this limitation by partitioning the data and drawing samples conditional on each partition in parallel (Scott et al, 2013). A fixed aggregation function then combines these samples, yielding approximate posterior samples. We introduce variational consensus Monte Carlo (VCMC), a variational Bayes algorithm that optimizes over aggregation functions to obtain samples from a distribution that better approximates the target. The resulting objective contains an intractable entropy term; we therefore derive a relaxation of the objective and show that the relaxed problem is blockwise concave under mild conditions. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm on three inference tasks from the literature, demonstrating both the superior quality of the posterior approximation and the moderate overhead of the optimization step. Our algorithm achieves a relative error reduction (measured against serial MCMC) of up to 39% compared to consensus Monte Carlo on the task of estimating 300-dimensional probit regression parameter expectations; similarly, it achieves an error reduction of 92% on the task of estimating cluster comembership probabilities in a Gaussian mixture model with 8 components in 8 dimensions. Furthermore, these gains come at moderate cost compared to the runtime of serial MCMC, achieving near-ideal speedup in some instances.

We consider the problem of modelling noisy but highly symmetric shapes that can be viewed as hierarchies of whole-part relationships in which higher level objects are composed of transformed collections of lower level objects. To this end, we propose the stochastic wreath process, a fully generative probabilistic model of drawings. Following Leyton's "Generative Theory of Shape", we represent shapes as sequences of transformation groups composed through a wreath product. This representation emphasizes the maximization of transfer --- the idea that the most compact and meaningful representation of a given shape is achieved by maximizing the re-use of existing building blocks or parts. The proposed stochastic wreath process extends Leyton's theory by defining a probability distribution over geometric shapes in terms of noise processes that are aligned with the generative group structure of the shape. We propose an inference scheme for recovering the generative history of given images in terms of the wreath process using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the context of sketching we demonstrate the feasibility and limitations of this approach on model-generated and real data.

In active learning, we are given a sample space X, a label space Y, a class of models that map X to Y, and a large set U of unlabelled samples. The goal of the learner is to learn a model in the class with small target error while interactively querying the labels of as few of the unlabelled samples as possible. Most theoretical work on active learning has focussed on the PAC or the agnostic PAC model, where the goal is to learn binary classifiers that belong to a particular hypothesis class [2, 13, 9, 6, 3, 4,22], andtherehasbeenonlyahandful ofexceptions[19, 8,20]. Inthispaper, weshift ourattention to a more general setting - maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), where Pr(Y X) is described by a model θ belonging to a model class Θ. We show that when data is generated by a model in this class, we can do active learning provided the model class Θ has the following simple property: the Fisher information matrix for any model θ Θ at any (x,y) depends only on x and θ. This condition is satisfied in a number of widely applicable model classes, such as Linear Regression and Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), which in turn includes models for Multiclass Classification and Conditional 1 Random Fields. Consequently, we can provide active learning algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation in all these model classes. The standard solution to active MLE estimation in the statistics literature is to select samples for label query by optimizing a class of summary statistics of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator [5]. The literature, however, does not provide any guidance towards which summary statistic should be used, or any analysis of the solution quality when a finite number of labels or samples are available.

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analysis. We introduce a new concept, the latent dataset, as a hierarchical variable and set the empirical population as its prior. This leads to a new predictive density that mitigates model mismatch. We efficiently apply this method to complex models by proposing a stochastic variational inference algorithm, called bumping variational inference (BUMP-VI). We demonstrate improved predictive accuracy over classical Bayesian inference in three models: a linear regression model of health data, a Bayesian mixture model of natural images, and a latent Dirichlet allocation topic model of scientific documents.

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are used to model a wide range of phenomena from disease progression to RNA path folding. However, maximum likelihood estimation of parametric models leads to degenerate trajectories and inferential performance is poor in nonparametric models. We take a small-variance asymptotics (SVA) approach to overcome these limitations. We derive the small-variance asymptotics for parametric and nonparametric MJPs for both directly observed and hidden state models. In the parametric case we obtain a novel objective function which leads to non-degenerate trajectories. To derive the nonparametric version we introduce the gamma-gamma process, a novel extension to the gamma-exponential process. We propose algorithms for each of these formulations, which we call \emph{JUMP-means}. Our experiments demonstrate that JUMP-means is competitive with or outperforms widely used MJP inference approaches in terms of both speed and reconstruction accuracy.