Neural networks have shown great predictive power when applied to unstructured data such as images and natural languages.

Probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs) and dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are widely used sequence models with complementary strengths and limitations. While PCFGs allow for nested hierarchical dependencies (tree structures), their latent variables (non-terminal symbols) have to be discrete. In contrast, DBNs allow for continuous latent variables, but the dependencies are strictly sequential (chain structure). Therefore, neither can be applied if the latent variables are assumed to be continuous and also to have a nested hierarchical dependency structure. In this paper, we present Recursive Bayesian Networks (RBNs), which generalise and unify PCFGs and DBNs, combining their strengths and containing both as special cases. RBNs define a joint distribution over tree-structured Bayesian networks with discrete or continuous latent variables. The main challenge lies in performing joint inference over the exponential number of possible structures and the continuous variables. We provide two solutions: 1) For arbitrary RBNs, we generalise inside and outside probabilities from PCFGs to the mixed discrete-continuous case, which allows for maximum posterior estimates of the continuous latent variables via gradient descent, while marginalising over network structures.

In this paper, we investigate the question: Given a small number of datapoints, for example N = 30, how tight can PAC-Bayes and test set bounds be made? For such small datasets, test set bounds adversely affect generalisation performance by withholding data from the training procedure. In this setting, PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive, due to their ability to use all the data to simultaneouslylearn a posterior and bound its generalisation risk. We focus on the case of i.i.d.

To gain intuition for how p-locality functions, we will introduce another notion of locality, called Markov locality, which will use the language of Markov blankets. We will prove that under relatively relaxed conditions p-locality and Markov locality are equivalent. This will allow us to relate the notion of locality to various graph structures commonly used to represent probability distributions, and will be a key step in proving Properties 2.1 and 2.2. We start by defining the Markov boundary, M(X,S), of a random variable X contained in a set of random variables S, as a minimal set such that p(X|S) = p(X|M(X,S)). The Markov boundary defines a minimal set of variables such that, conditioned on these variables, conditioning on no additional random variables in S changes the probability of X [39]. Similarly, we define the Markov blanket, M(X,S) for X in S as any set of variables such that conditioning on M(X,S), makes X conditionally independent from all other variables [39]. In this way, the Markov boundary is a Markov blanket but not all blankets are boundaries. Markov locality: Given probability distribution p(Z) and function f: RNX+NΘ RNΘ, the update function f(Z) is Markov-local with respect to the distribution p over Z if and only if k: Z Ωs.t. AMarkov boundary can be thought of as the set of variables that'locally' communicate with the parameter Θk, thus providing a natural measure of locality. Importantly, for Markov-locality to be of use, we would like the Markov boundaries of random variables in the model of interest to be unique.