Bayesian Learning
Learning the Structure for Structured Sparsity
Shervashidze, Nino, Bach, Francis
Structured sparsity has recently emerged in statistics, machine learning and signal processing as a promising paradigm for learning in high-dimensional settings. All existing methods for learning under the assumption of structured sparsity rely on prior knowledge on how to weight (or how to penalize) individual subsets of variables during the subset selection process, which is not available in general. Inferring group weights from data is a key open research problem in structured sparsity.In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to the problem of group weight learning. We model the group weights as hyperparameters of heavy-tailed priors on groups of variables and derive an approximate inference scheme to infer these hyperparameters. We empirically show that we are able to recover the model hyperparameters when the data are generated from the model, and we demonstrate the utility of learning weights in synthetic and real denoising problems.
Learning without Recall by Random Walks on Directed Graphs
Rahimian, Mohammad Amin, Shahrampour, Shahin, Jadbabaie, Ali
We consider a network of agents that aim to learn some unknown state of the world using private observations and exchange of beliefs. At each time, agents observe private signals generated based on the true unknown state. Each agent might not be able to distinguish the true state based only on her private observations. This occurs when some other states are observationally equivalent to the true state from the agent's perspective. To overcome this shortcoming, agents must communicate with each other to benefit from local observations. We propose a model where each agent selects one of her neighbors randomly at each time. Then, she refines her opinion using her private signal and the prior of that particular neighbor. The proposed rule can be thought of as a Bayesian agent who cannot recall the priors based on which other agents make inferences. This learning without recall approach preserves some aspects of the Bayesian inference while being computationally tractable. By establishing a correspondence with a random walk on the network graph, we prove that under the described protocol, agents learn the truth exponentially fast in the almost sure sense. The asymptotic rate is expressed as the sum of the relative entropies between the signal structures of every agent weighted by the stationary distribution of the random walk.
Benchmarking for Bayesian Reinforcement Learning
Castronovo, Michael, Ernst, Damien, Couetoux, Adrien, Fonteneau, Raphael
In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but even though a few toy examples exist in the literature, there are still no extensive or rigorous benchmarks to compare them. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed.
Markov Boundary Discovery with Ridge Regularized Linear Models
Strobl, Eric V., Visweswaran, Shyam
Ridge regularized linear models (RRLMs), such as ridge regression and the SVM, are a popular group of methods that are used in conjunction with coefficient hypothesis testing to discover explanatory variables with a significant multivariate association to a response. However, many investigators are reluctant to draw causal interpretations of the selected variables due to the incomplete knowledge of the capabilities of RRLMs in causal inference. Under reasonable assumptions, we show that a modified form of RRLMs can get very close to identifying a subset of the Markov boundary by providing a worst-case bound on the space of possible solutions. The results hold for any convex loss, even when the underlying functional relationship is nonlinear, and the solution is not unique. Our approach combines ideas in Markov boundary and sufficient dimension reduction theory. Experimental results show that the modified RRLMs are competitive against state-of-the-art algorithms in discovering part of the Markov boundary from gene expression data.
Adaptive Low-Complexity Sequential Inference for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models
Tsiligkaridis, Theodoros, Forsythe, Keith W.
We develop a sequential low-complexity inference procedure for Dirichlet process mixtures of Gaussians for online clustering and parameter estimation when the number of clusters are unknown a-priori. We present an easily computable, closed form parametric expression for the conditional likelihood, in which hyperparameters are recursively updated as a function of the streaming data assuming conjugate priors. Motivated by large-sample asymptotics, we propose a novel adaptive low-complexity design for the Dirichlet process concentration parameter and show that the number of classes grow at most at a logarithmic rate. We further prove that in the large-sample limit, the conditional likelihood and data predictive distribution become asymptotically Gaussian. We demonstrate through experiments on synthetic and real data sets that our approach is superior to other online state-of-the-art methods.
Newton-based maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear state space models
Kok, Manon, Dahlin, Johan, Schön, Thomas B., Wills, Adrian
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and Hessian using Fisher's identity in combination with a smoothing algorithm. We explore two approximations of the log-likelihood and of the solution of the smoothing problem. The first is a linearization approximation which is computationally cheap, but the accuracy typically varies between models. The second is a sampling approximation which is asymptotically valid for any SSM but is more computationally costly. We demonstrate our approach for ML parameter estimation on simulated data from two different SSMs with encouraging results.
A Variational Bayesian State-Space Approach to Online Passive-Aggressive Regression
Salas, Arnold, Roberts, Stephen J., Osborne, Michael A.
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the approach fails to capture model/prediction uncertainty and makes their performance highly sensitive to hyperparameter configurations. In this paper, we introduce a novel PA learning framework for regression that overcomes the above limitations. We contribute a Bayesian state-space interpretation of PA regression, along with a novel online variational inference scheme, that not only produces probabilistic predictions, but also offers the benefit of automatic hyperparameter tuning. Experiments with various real-world data sets show that our approach performs significantly better than a more standard, linear Gaussian state-space model.
Supervised Collective Classification for Crowdsourcing
Chen, Pin-Yu, Lien, Chia-Wei, Chu, Fu-Jen, Ting, Pai-Shun, Cheng, Shin-Ming
Crowdsourcing utilizes the wisdom of crowds for collective classification via information (e.g., labels of an item) provided by labelers. Current crowdsourcing algorithms are mainly unsupervised methods that are unaware of the quality of crowdsourced data. In this paper, we propose a supervised collective classification algorithm that aims to identify reliable labelers from the training data (e.g., items with known labels). The reliability (i.e., weighting factor) of each labeler is determined via a saddle point algorithm. The results on several crowdsourced data show that supervised methods can achieve better classification accuracy than unsupervised methods, and our proposed method outperforms other algorithms.
Fuzzy Jets
Mackey, Lester, Nachman, Benjamin, Schwartzman, Ariel, Stansbury, Conrad
Collimated streams of particles produced in high energy physics experiments are organized using clustering algorithms to form jets. To construct jets, the experimental collaborations based at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) primarily use agglomerative hierarchical clustering schemes known as sequential recombination. We propose a new class of algorithms for clustering jets that use infrared and collinear safe mixture models. These new algorithms, known as fuzzy jets, are clustered using maximum likelihood techniques and can dynamically determine various properties of jets like their size. We show that the fuzzy jet size adds additional information to conventional jet tagging variables. Furthermore, we study the impact of pileup and show that with some slight modifications to the algorithm, fuzzy jets can be stable up to high pileup interaction multiplicities.
Simultaneous Clustering and Model Selection for Multinomial Distribution: A Comparative Study
Hasnat, Md. Abul, Velcin, Julien, Bonnevay, Stéphane, Jacques, Julien
In this paper, we study different discrete data clustering methods, which use the Model-Based Clustering (MBC) framework with the Multinomial distribution. Our study comprises several relevant issues, such as initialization, model estimation and model selection. Additionally, we propose a novel MBC method by efficiently combining the partitional and hierarchical clustering techniques. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real data and evaluate the methods using accuracy, stability and computation time. Our study identifies appropriate strategies to be used for discrete data analysis with the MBC methods. Moreover, our proposed method is very competitive w.r.t. clustering accuracy and better w.r.t. stability and computation time.