Matrix factorization (MF) collaborative filtering is an effective and widely used method in recommendation systems. However, the problem of finding an optimal trade-off between exploration and exploitation (otherwise known as the bandit problem), a crucial problem in collaborative filtering from cold-start, has not been previously addressed.In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for online MF recommendation that automatically combines finding the most relevantitems with exploring new or less-recommended items.Our approach, called Particle Thompson Sampling for Matrix-Factorization, is based on the general Thompson sampling framework, but augmented with a novel efficient online Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization method based on the Rao-Blackwellized particle filter.Extensive experiments in collaborative filtering using several real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-arts.

We consider the problem of efficiently computing the maximum likelihood estimator in Generalized Linear Models (GLMs)when the number of observations is much larger than the number of coefficients (n > > p > > 1). In this regime, optimization algorithms can immensely benefit fromapproximate second order information.We propose an alternative way of constructing the curvature information by formulatingit as an estimation problem and applying a Stein-type lemma, which allows further improvements through sub-sampling andeigenvalue thresholding.Our algorithm enjoys fast convergence rates, resembling that of second order methods, with modest per-iteration cost. We provide its convergence analysis for the case where the rows of the design matrix are i.i.d. samples with bounded support.We show that the convergence has two phases, aquadratic phase followed by a linear phase. Finally,we empirically demonstrate that our algorithm achieves the highest performancecompared to various algorithms on several datasets.

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large datasets typical of modern machine learning. The recently proposed consensus Monte Carlo algorithm removes this limitation by partitioning the data and drawing samples conditional on each partition in parallel (Scott et al, 2013). A fixed aggregation function then combines these samples, yielding approximate posterior samples. We introduce variational consensus Monte Carlo (VCMC), a variational Bayes algorithm that optimizes over aggregation functions to obtain samples from a distribution that better approximates the target. The resulting objective contains an intractable entropy term; we therefore derive a relaxation of the objective and show that the relaxed problem is blockwise concave under mild conditions. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm on three inference tasks from the literature, demonstrating both the superior quality of the posterior approximation and the moderate overhead of the optimization step. Our algorithm achieves a relative error reduction (measured against serial MCMC) of up to 39% compared to consensus Monte Carlo on the task of estimating 300-dimensional probit regression parameter expectations; similarly, it achieves an error reduction of 92% on the task of estimating cluster comembership probabilities in a Gaussian mixture model with 8 components in 8 dimensions. Furthermore, these gains come at moderate cost compared to the runtime of serial MCMC, achieving near-ideal speedup in some instances.

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We study our method with latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures on several large-scale data sets.

In regression problems involving vector-valued outputs (or equivalently, multiple responses), it is well known that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), which takes noise covariance structure into account, can be significantly more accurate than the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. However, existing literature compares OLS and MLE in terms of their asymptotic, not finite sample, guarantees. More crucially, computing the MLE in general requires solving a non-convex optimization problem and is not known to be efficiently solvable. We provide finite sample upper and lower bounds on the estimation error of OLS and MLE, in two popular models: a) Pooled model, b) Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model. We provide precise instances where the MLE is significantly more accurate than OLS. Furthermore, for both models, we show that the output of a computationally efficient alternating minimization procedure enjoys the same performance guarantee as MLE, up to universal constants. Finally, we show that for high-dimensional settings as well, the alternating minimization procedure leads to significantly more accurate solutions than the corresponding OLS solutions but with error bound that depends only logarithmically on the data dimensionality.

An active learner is given a class of models, a large set of unlabeled examples, and the ability to interactively query labels of a subset of these examples; the goal of the learner is to learn a model in the class that fits the data well. Previous theoretical work has rigorously characterized label complexity of active learning, but most of this work has focused on the PAC or the agnostic PAC model. In this paper, we shift our attention to a more general setting -- maximum likelihood estimation. Provided certain conditions hold on the model class, we provide a two-stage active learning algorithm for this problem. The conditions we require are fairly general, and cover the widely popular class of Generalized Linear Models, which in turn, include models for binary and multi-class classification, regression, and conditional random fields. We provide an upper bound on the label requirement of our algorithm, and a lower bound that matches it up to lower order terms. Our analysis shows that unlike binary classification in the realizable case, just a single extraround of interaction is sufficient to achieve near-optimal performance in maximum likelihood estimation. On the empirical side, the recent work in (Gu et al. 2012) and (Gu et al. 2014) (on active linear and logistic regression) shows the promise of this approach.

We consider the estimation of sparse graphical models that characterize the dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-valued data. To facilitate the estimation of the precision matrix corresponding to each way of the tensor, we assume the data follow a tensor normal distribution whose covariance has a Kronecker product structure. The penalized maximum likelihood estimation of this model involves minimizing a non-convex objective function. In spite of the non-convexity of this estimation problem, we prove that an alternating minimization algorithm, which iteratively estimates each sparse precision matrix while fixing the others, attains an estimator with the optimal statistical rate of convergence as well as consistent graph recovery. Notably, such an estimator achieves estimation consistency with only one tensor sample, which is unobserved in previous work. Our theoretical results are backed by thorough numerical studies.

We consider the problem of binary classification when the covariates conditioned on the each of the response values follow multivariate Gaussian distributions. We focus on the setting where the covariance matrices for the two conditional distributions are the same. The corresponding generative model classifier, derived via the Bayes rule, also called Linear Discriminant Analysis, has been shown to behave poorly in high-dimensional settings. We present a novel analysis of the classification error of any linear discriminant approach given conditional Gaussian models. This allows us to compare the generative model classifier, other recently proposed discriminative approaches that directly learn the discriminant function, and then finally logistic regression which is another classical discriminative model classifier. As we show, under a natural sparsity assumption, and letting $s$ denote the sparsity of the Bayes classifier, $p$ the number of covariates, and $n$ the number of samples, the simple ($\ell_1$-regularized) logistic regression classifier achieves the fast misclassification error rates of $O\left(\frac{s \log p}{n}\right)$, which is much better than the other approaches, which are either inconsistent under high-dimensional settings, or achieve a slower rate of $O\left(\sqrt{\frac{s \log p}{n}}\right)$.

In simple perceptual decisions the brain has to identify a stimulus based on noisy sensory samples from the stimulus. Basic statistical considerations state that the reliability of the stimulus information, i.e., the amount of noise in the samples, should be taken into account when the decision is made. However, for perceptual decision making experiments it has been questioned whether the brain indeed uses the reliability for making decisions when confronted with unpredictable changes in stimulus reliability. We here show that even the basic drift diffusion model, which has frequently been used to explain experimental findings in perceptual decision making, implicitly relies on estimates of stimulus reliability. We then show that only those variants of the drift diffusion model which allow stimulus-specific reliabilities are consistent with neurophysiological findings. Our analysis suggests that the brain estimates the reliability of the stimulus on a short time scale of at most a few hundred milliseconds.

Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of tree-structured parameters. This paper explores an alternative notion of a tractable set, namely a set of “fast-mixing parameters” where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference can be guaranteed to quickly converge to the stationary distribution. While it is common in practice to approximate the likelihood gradient using samples obtained from MCMC, such procedures lack theoretical guarantees. This paper proves that for any exponential family with bounded sufficient statistics, (not just graphical models) when parameters are constrained to a fast-mixing set, gradient descent with gradients approximated by sampling will approximate the maximum likelihood solution inside the set with high-probability. When unregularized, to find a solution epsilon-accurate in log-likelihood requires a total amount of effort cubic in 1/epsilon, disregarding logarithmic factors. When ridge-regularized, strong convexity allows a solution epsilon-accurate in parameter distance with an effort quadratic in 1/epsilon. Both of these provide of a fully-polynomial time randomized approximation scheme.