In this paper, we explore degrees of freedom in deep sigmoidal neural networks. We show that the degrees of freedom in these models is related to the expected optimism, which is the expected difference between test error and training error. We provide an efficient Monte-Carlo method to estimate the degrees of freedom for multi-class classification methods. We show degrees of freedom are lower than the parameter count in a simple XOR network. We extend these results to neural nets trained on synthetic and real data, and investigate impact of network's architecture and different regularization choices. The degrees of freedom in deep networks are dramatically smaller than the number of parameters, in some real datasets several orders of magnitude. Further, we observe that for fixed number of parameters, deeper networks have less degrees of freedom exhibiting a regularization-by-depth.

Driving styles have a great influence on vehicle fuel economy, active safety, and drivability. To recognize driving styles of path-tracking behaviors for different divers, a statistical pattern-recognition method is developed to deal with the uncertainty of driving styles or characteristics based on probability density estimation. First, to describe driver path-tracking styles, vehicle speed and throttle opening are selected as the discriminative parameters, and a conditional kernel density function of vehicle speed and throttle opening is built, respectively, to describe the uncertainty and probability of two representative driving styles, e.g., aggressive and normal. Meanwhile, a posterior probability of each element in feature vector is obtained using full Bayesian theory. Second, a Euclidean distance method is involved to decide to which class the driver should be subject instead of calculating the complex covariance between every two elements of feature vectors. By comparing the Euclidean distance between every elements in feature vector, driving styles are classified into seven levels ranging from low normal to high aggressive. Subsequently, to show benefits of the proposed pattern-recognition method, a cross-validated method is used, compared with a fuzzy logic-based pattern-recognition method. The experiment results show that the proposed statistical pattern-recognition method for driving styles based on kernel density estimation is more efficient and stable than the fuzzy logic-based method.

There are three different types of topics in machine learning, the first ones are like NLP, Computer vision, Robotics etc. and other ones are algorithms in machine learning like genetic algorithms, neural networks, bayesian networks etc and thirdly there are concepts like decision trees, random forest, PCA etc. So, how are all these topics related when I say PhD in Bayesian Networks or PhD in NLP or PhD in boosting etc?

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of kernel mean embeddings of probability measures. For characteristic kernels, which include most commonly used ones, the kernel mean embedding uniquely determines its probability measure, so it can be used to design a powerful statistical testing framework, which includes nonparametric two-sample and independence tests. In practice, however, the performance of these tests can be very sensitive to the choice of kernel and its lengthscale parameters. To address this central issue, we propose a new probabilistic model for kernel mean embeddings, the Bayesian Kernel Embedding model, combining a Gaussian process prior over the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space containing the mean embedding with a conjugate likelihood function, thus yielding a closed form posterior over the mean embedding. The posterior mean of our model is closely related to recently proposed shrinkage estimators for kernel mean embeddings, while the posterior uncertainty is a new, interesting feature with various possible applications. Critically for the purposes of kernel learning, our model gives a simple, closed form marginal pseudolikelihood of the observed data given the kernel hyperparameters. This marginal pseudolikelihood can either be optimized to inform the hyperparameter choice or fully Bayesian inference can be used.

Model selection is difficult to analyse yet theoretically and empirically important, especially for high-dimensional data analysis. Recently the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) has been applied in the statistical and econometric literature. Consis- tency of Lasso has been established under various conditions, some of which are difficult to verify in practice. In this paper, we study model selection from the perspective of generalization ability, under the framework of structural risk minimization (SRM) and Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) theory. The approach emphasizes the balance between the in-sample and out-of-sample fit, which can be achieved by using cross-validation to select a penalty on model complexity. We show that an exact relationship exists between the generalization ability of a model and model selection consistency. By implementing SRM and the VC inequality, we show that Lasso is L2-consistent for model selection under assumptions similar to those imposed on OLS. Furthermore, we derive a probabilistic bound for the distance between the penalized extremum estimator and the extremum estimator without penalty, which is dominated by overfitting. We also propose a new measurement of overfitting, GR2, based on generalization ability, that converges to zero if model selection is consistent. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed CV-Lasso algorithm performs well in terms of model selection and overfitting control.

Black-box alpha (BB-$\alpha$) is a new approximate inference method based on the minimization of $\alpha$-divergences. BB-$\alpha$ scales to large datasets because it can be implemented using stochastic gradient descent. BB-$\alpha$ can be applied to complex probabilistic models with little effort since it only requires as input the likelihood function and its gradients. These gradients can be easily obtained using automatic differentiation. By changing the divergence parameter $\alpha$, the method is able to interpolate between variational Bayes (VB) ($\alpha \rightarrow 0$) and an algorithm similar to expectation propagation (EP) ($\alpha = 1$). Experiments on probit regression and neural network regression and classification problems show that BB-$\alpha$ with non-standard settings of $\alpha$, such as $\alpha = 0.5$, usually produces better predictions than with $\alpha \rightarrow 0$ (VB) or $\alpha = 1$ (EP).

This post teaches you how to implement your own spam filter in under 100 lines of Python code. While doing this hands-on exercise, you'll work with natural language data, learn how to detect the words spammers use automatically, and learn how to use a Naive Bayes classifier for binary classification. The task is to distinguish between two types of emails, "spam" and "non-spam" often called "ham". The machine learning classifier will detect that an email is spam if it is characterised by certain features. The textual content of the email – words like "Viagra" or "lottery" or phrases like "You've won a 100,000,000 dollars!

This paper introduces a new technique for quantifying the approximation error of a broad class of probabilistic inference programs, including ones based on both variational and Monte Carlo approaches. The key idea is to derive a subjective bound on the symmetrized KL divergence between the distribution achieved by an approximate inference program and its true target distribution. The bound's validity (and subjectivity) rests on the accuracy of two auxiliary probabilistic programs: (i) a "reference" inference program that defines a gold standard of accuracy and (ii) a "meta-inference" program that answers the question "what internal random choices did the original approximate inference program probably make given that it produced a particular result?" The paper includes empirical results on inference problems drawn from linear regression, Dirichlet process mixture modeling, HMMs, and Bayesian networks. The experiments show that the technique is robust to the quality of the reference inference program and that it can detect implementation bugs that are not apparent from predictive performance.

We show that a generative random field model, which we call generative ConvNet, can be derived from the commonly used discriminative ConvNet, by assuming a ConvNet for multi-category classification and assuming one of the categories is a base category generated by a reference distribution. If we further assume that the non-linearity in the ConvNet is Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) and the reference distribution is Gaussian white noise, then we obtain a generative ConvNet model that is unique among energy-based models: The model is piecewise Gaussian, and the means of the Gaussian pieces are defined by an auto-encoder, where the filters in the bottom-up encoding become the basis functions in the top-down decoding, and the binary activation variables detected by the filters in the bottom-up convolution process become the coefficients of the basis functions in the top-down deconvolution process. The Langevin dynamics for sampling the generative ConvNet is driven by the reconstruction error of this auto-encoder. The contrastive divergence learning of the generative ConvNet reconstructs the training images by the auto-encoder. The maximum likelihood learning algorithm can synthesize realistic natural image patterns.

Motivated by a real-world problem, we study a novel budgeted optimization problem where the goal is to optimize an unknown function f(.) given a budget by requesting a sequence of samples from the function. In our setting, however, evaluating the function at precisely specified points is not practically possible due to prohibitive costs. Instead, we can only request constrained experiments. A constrained experiment, denoted by Q, specifies a subset of the input space for the experimenter to sample the function from. The outcome of Q includes a sampled experiment x, and its function output f(x). Importantly, as the constraints of Q become looser, the cost of fulfilling the request decreases, but the uncertainty about the location x increases. Our goal is to manage this trade-off by selecting a set of constrained experiments that best optimize f(.) within the budget. We study this problem in two different settings, the non-sequential (or batch) setting where a set of constrained experiments is selected at once, and the sequential setting where experiments are selected one at a time. We evaluate our proposed methods for both settings using synthetic and real functions. The experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.