Bayesian nonparametric methods based on the Dirichlet process (DP), gamma process and beta process, have proven effective in capturing aspects of various datasets arising in machine learning. However, it is now recognized that such processes have their limitations in terms of the ability to capture power law behavior. As such there is now considerable interest in models based on the Stable Processs (SP), Generalized Gamma process (GGP) and Stable-beta process (SBP). These models present new challenges in terms of practical statistical implementation. In analogy to tractable processes such as the finite-dimensional Dirichlet process, we describe a class of random processes, we call iid finite-dimensional BFRY processes, that enables one to begin to develop efficient posterior inference algorithms such as variational Bayes that readily scale to massive datasets. For illustrative purposes, we describe a simple variational Bayes algorithm for normalized SP mixture models, and demonstrate its usefulness with experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

People often learn from others' demonstrations, and classic inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) algorithms have brought us closer to realizing this capacity in machines. In contrast, teaching by demonstration has been less well studied computationally. Here, we develop a novel Bayesian model for teaching by demonstration. Stark differences arise when demonstrators are intentionally teaching a task versus simply performing a task. In two experiments, we show that human participants systematically modify their teaching behavior consistent with the predictions of our model. Further, we show that even standard IRL algorithms benefit when learning from behaviors that are intentionally pedagogical. We conclude by discussing IRL algorithms that can take advantage of intentional pedagogy.

Variational approaches are often used to approximate intractable posteriors or normalization constants in hierarchical latent variable models. While often effective in practice, it is known that the approximation error can be arbitrarily large. We propose a new class of bounds on the marginal log-likelihood of directed latent variable models. Our approach relies on random projections to simplify the posterior. In contrast to standard variational methods, our bounds are guaranteed to be tight with high probability. We provide a new approach for learning latent variable models based on optimizing our new bounds on the log-likelihood. We demonstrate empirical improvements on benchmark datasets in vision and language for sigmoid belief networks, where a neural network is used to approximate the posterior.

We propose two stochastic gradient MCMC methods for sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions defined on Riemann manifolds with a known geodesic flow, e.g. hyperspheres. Our methods are the first scalable sampling methods on these manifolds, with the aid of stochastic gradients. Novel dynamics are conceived and 2nd-order integrators are developed. By adopting embedding techniques and the geodesic integrator, the methods do not require a global coordinate system of the manifold and do not involve inner iterations. Synthetic experiments show the validity of the method, and its application to the challenging inference for spherical topic models indicate practical usability and efficiency.

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) has played an important role in large-scale Bayesian learning, with well-developed theoretical convergence properties. In such applications of SG-MCMC, it is becoming increasingly popular to employ distributed systems, where stochastic gradients are computed based on some outdated parameters, yielding what are termed stale gradients. While stale gradients could be directly used in SG-MCMC, their impact on convergence properties has not been well studied. In this paper we develop theory to show that while the bias and MSE of an SG-MCMC algorithm depend on the staleness of stochastic gradients, its estimation variance (relative to the expected estimate, based on a prescribed number of samples) is independent of it. In a simple Bayesian distributed system with SG-MCMC, where stale gradients are computed asynchronously by a set of workers, our theory indicates a linear speedup on the decrease of estimation variance w.r.t. the number of workers. Experiments on synthetic data and deep neural networks validate our theory, demonstrating the effectiveness and scalability of SG-MCMC with stale gradients.

Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) has been successfully applied to learn deep generative models for characterizing a joint distribution of variables via kernel mean embedding. In this paper, we present conditional generative moment-matching networks (CGMMN), which learn a conditional distribution given some input variables based on a conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD) criterion. The learning is performed by stochastic gradient descent with the gradient calculated by back-propagation. We evaluate CGMMN on a wide range of tasks, including predictive modeling, contextual generation, and Bayesian dark knowledge, which distills knowledge from a Bayesian model by learning a relatively small CGMMN student network. Our results demonstrate competitive performance in all the tasks.

We develop a Bayesian model for decision-making under time pressure with endogenous information acquisition. In our model, the decision-maker decides when to observe (costly) information by sampling an underlying continuous-time stochastic process (time series) that conveys information about the potential occurrence/non-occurrence of an adverse event which will terminate the decision-making process. In her attempt to predict the occurrence of the adverse event, the decision-maker follows a policy that determines when to acquire information from the time series (continuation), and when to stop acquiring information and make a final prediction (stopping). We show that the optimal policy has a "rendezvous" structure, i.e. a structure in which whenever a new information sample is gathered from the time series, the optimal "date" for acquiring the next sample becomes computable. The optimal interval between two information samples balances a trade-off between the decision maker’s "surprise", i.e. the drift in her posterior belief after observing new information, and "suspense", i.e. the probability that the adverse event occurs in the time interval between two information samples. Moreover, we characterize the continuation and stopping regions in the decision-maker’s state-space, and show that they depend not only on the decision-maker’s beliefs, but also on the "context", i.e. the current realization of the time series.

Despite the success of kernel-based nonparametric methods, kernel selection still requires considerable expertise, and is often described as a "black art." We present a sophisticated method for automatically searching for an appropriate kernel from an infinite space of potential choices. Previous efforts in this direction have focused on traversing a kernel grammar, only examining the data via computation of marginal likelihood. Our proposed search method is based on Bayesian optimization in model space, where we reason about model evidence as a function to be maximized. We explicitly reason about the data distribution and how it induces similarity between potential model choices in terms of the explanations they can offer for observed data. In this light, we construct a novel kernel between models to explain a given dataset. Our method is capable of finding a model that explains a given dataset well without any human assistance, often with fewer computations of model evidence than previous approaches, a claim we demonstrate empirically.

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an unprecedented opportunity to predict state-changing events at the individual level. Examples of such events include disease transmission, opinion transition in elections, and rumor propagation. Unlike previous research focusing on the collective effects of social systems, this study makes efficient inferences at the individual level. In order to cope with dynamic interactions among a large number of individuals, we introduce the stochastic kinetic model to capture adaptive transition probabilities and propose an efficient variational inference algorithm the complexity of which grows linearly — rather than exponentially— with the number of individuals. To validate this method, we have performed epidemic-dynamics experiments on wireless sensor network data collected from more than ten thousand people over three years. The proposed algorithm was used to track disease transmission and predict the probability of infection for each individual. Our results demonstrate that this method is more efficient than sampling while nonetheless achieving high accuracy.

Random projections constitute a simple, yet effective technique for dimensionality reduction with applications in learning and search problems. In the present paper, we consider the problem of estimating cosine similarities when the projected data undergo scalar quantization to $b$ bits. We here argue that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a principled approach to deal with the non-linearity resulting from quantization, and subsequently study its computational and statistical properties. A specific focus is on the on the trade-off between bit depth and the number of projections given a fixed budget of bits for storage or transmission. Along the way, we also touch upon the existence of a qualitative counterpart to the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma in the presence of quantization.