The multivariate normal density is a monotonic function of the distance to the mean, and its ellipsoidal shape is due to the underlying Euclidean metric. We suggest to replace this metric with a locally adaptive, smoothly changing (Riemannian) metric that favors regions of high local density. The resulting locally adaptive normal distribution (LAND) is a generalization of the normal distribution to the "manifold" setting, where data is assumed to lie near a potentially low-dimensional manifold embedded in R^D. The LAND is parametric, depending only on a mean and a covariance, and is the maximum entropy distribution under the given metric. The underlying metric is, however, non-parametric. We develop a maximum likelihood algorithm to infer the distribution parameters that relies on a combination of gradient descent and Monte Carlo integration. We further extend the LAND to mixture models, and provide the corresponding EM algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency of the LAND to fit non-trivial probability distributions over both synthetic data, and EEG measurements of human sleep.

Given a task of predicting Y from X, a loss function L, and a set of probability distributions Gamma on (X,Y), what is the optimal decision rule minimizing the worst-case expected loss over Gamma? In this paper, we address this question by introducing a generalization of the maximum entropy principle. Applying this principle to sets of distributions with marginal on X constrained to be the empirical marginal, we provide a minimax interpretation of the maximum likelihood problem over generalized linear models as well as some popular regularization schemes. For quadratic and logarithmic loss functions we revisit well-known linear and logistic regression models. Moreover, for the 0-1 loss we derive a classifier which we call the minimax SVM. The minimax SVM minimizes the worst-case expected 0-1 loss over the proposed Gamma by solving a tractable optimization problem. We perform several numerical experiments to show the power of the minimax SVM in outperforming the SVM.

Bayesian optimization is a prominent method for optimizing expensive to evaluate black-box functions that is prominently applied to tuning the hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms. Despite its successes, the prototypical Bayesian optimization approach - using Gaussian process models - does not scale well to either many hyperparameters or many function evaluations. Attacking this lack of scalability and flexibility is thus one of the key challenges of the field. We present a general approach for using flexible parametric models (neural networks) for Bayesian optimization, staying as close to a truly Bayesian treatment as possible. We obtain scalability through stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, whose robustness we improve via a scale adaptation. Experiments including multi-task Bayesian optimization with 21 tasks, parallel optimization of deep neural networks and deep reinforcement learning show the power and flexibility of this approach.

The use of Bayesian methods in large-scale data settings is attractive because of the rich hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, and prior specification they provide. Standard Bayesian inference algorithms are computationally expensive, however, making their direct application to large datasets difficult or infeasible. Recent work on scaling Bayesian inference has focused on modifying the underlying algorithms to, for example, use only a random data subsample at each iteration. We leverage the insight that data is often redundant to instead obtain a weighted subset of the data (called a coreset) that is much smaller than the original dataset. We can then use this small coreset in any number of existing posterior inference algorithms without modification. In this paper, we develop an efficient coreset construction algorithm for Bayesian logistic regression models. We provide theoretical guarantees on the size and approximation quality of the coreset -- both for fixed, known datasets, and in expectation for a wide class of data generative models. Crucially, the proposed approach also permits efficient construction of the coreset in both streaming and parallel settings, with minimal additional effort. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on a number of synthetic and real-world datasets, and find that, in practice, the size of the coreset is independent of the original dataset size. Furthermore, constructing the coreset takes a negligible amount of time compared to that required to run MCMC on it.

We consider tractable representations of probability distributions and the polytime operations they support. In particular, we consider a recently proposed arithmetic circuit representation, the Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagram (PSDD). We show that PSDD supports a polytime multiplication operator, while they do not support a polytime operator for summing-out variables. A polytime multiplication operator make PSDDs suitable for a broader class of applications compared to arithmetic circuits, which do not in general support multiplication. As one example, we show that PSDD multiplication leads to a very simple but effective compilation algorithm for probabilistic graphical models: represent each model factor as a PSDD, and then multiply them.

Nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) provides an appealing framework for unsupervised feature learning, but the models proposed so far are not identifiable. Here, we first propose a new intuitive principle of unsupervised deep learning from time series which uses the nonstationary structure of the data. Our learning principle, time-contrastive learning (TCL), finds a representation which allows optimal discrimination of time segments (windows). Surprisingly, we show how TCL can be related to a nonlinear ICA model, when ICA is redefined to include temporal nonstationarities. In particular, we show that TCL combined with linear ICA estimates the nonlinear ICA model up to point-wise transformations of the sources, and this solution is unique --- thus providing the first identifiability result for nonlinear ICA which is rigorous, constructive, as well as very general.

Decision making under uncertainty is commonly modelled as a process of competitive stochastic evidence accumulation to threshold (the drift-diffusion model). However, it is unknown how animals learn these decision thresholds. We examine threshold learning by constructing a reward function that averages over many trials to Wald's cost function that defines decision optimality. These rewards are highly stochastic and hence challenging to optimize, which we address in two ways: first, a simple two-factor reward-modulated learning rule derived from Williams' REINFORCE method for neural networks; and second, Bayesian optimization of the reward function with a Gaussian process. Bayesian optimization converges in fewer trials than REINFORCE but is slower computationally with greater variance. The REINFORCE method is also a better model of acquisition behaviour in animals and a similar learning rule has been proposed for modelling basal ganglia function.

Large labeled training sets are the critical building blocks of supervised learning methods and are key enablers of deep learning techniques. For some applications, creating labeled training sets is the most time-consuming and expensive part of applying machine learning. We therefore propose a paradigm for the programmatic creation of training sets called data programming in which users provide a set of labeling functions, which are programs that heuristically label subsets of the data, but that are noisy and may conflict. By viewing these labeling functions as implicitly describing a generative model for this noise, we show that we can recover the parameters of this model to "denoise" the generated training set, and establish theoretically that we can recover the parameters of these generative models in a handful of settings. We then show how to modify a discriminative loss function to make it noise-aware, and demonstrate our method over a range of discriminative models including logistic regression and LSTMs. Experimentally, on the 2014 TAC-KBP Slot Filling challenge, we show that data programming would have led to a new winning score, and also show that applying data programming to an LSTM model leads to a TAC-KBP score almost 6 F1 points over a state-of-the-art LSTM baseline (and into second place in the competition). Additionally, in initial user studies we observed that data programming may be an easier way for non-experts to create machine learning models when training data is limited or unavailable.

When recovering an unknown signal from noisy measurements, the computational difficulty of performing optimal Bayesian MMSE (minimum mean squared error) inference often necessitates the use of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference, a special case of regularized M-estimation, as a surrogate. However, MAP is suboptimal in high dimensions, when the number of unknown signal components is similar to the number of measurements. In this work we demonstrate, when the signal distribution and the likelihood function associated with the noise are both log-concave, that optimal MMSE performance is asymptotically achievable via another M-estimation procedure. This procedure involves minimizing convex loss and regularizer functions that are nonlinearly smoothed versions of the widely applied MAP optimization problem. Our findings provide a new heuristic derivation and interpretation for recent optimal M-estimators found in the setting of linear measurements and additive noise, and further extend these results to nonlinear measurements with non-additive noise. We numerically demonstrate superior performance of our optimal M-estimators relative to MAP. Overall, at the heart of our work is the revelation of a remarkable equivalence between two seemingly very different computational problems: namely that of high dimensional Bayesian integration underlying MMSE inference, and high dimensional convex optimization underlying M-estimation. In essence we show that the former difficult integral may be computed by solving the latter, simpler optimization problem.

We consider log-supermodular models on binary variables, which are probabilistic models with negative log-densities which are submodular. These models provide probabilistic interpretations of common combinatorial optimization tasks such as image segmentation. In this paper, we focus primarily on parameter estimation in the models from known upper-bounds on the intractable log-partition function. We show that the bound based on separable optimization on the base polytope of the submodular function is always inferior to a bound based on ``perturb-and-MAP'' ideas. Then, to learn parameters, given that our approximation of the log-partition function is an expectation (over our own randomization), we use a stochastic subgradient technique to maximize a lower-bound on the log-likelihood. This can also be extended to conditional maximum likelihood. We illustrate our new results in a set of experiments in binary image denoising, where we highlight the flexibility of a probabilistic model to learn with missing data.