Artificial intelligence is one of humankind's greatest and oldest ambitions. The quest for non-human intelligence has captivated magicians, astrologers and mystics for as long as such professions have existed, but it took Aristotle to kick things off properly. He was the first to start organising laws of thought and the way they interact with the real world -- the basic concepts behind AI. That was in the third century BC, and 2,300 years later we still haven't cracked the problem. Part of the trouble is that nobody knows what AI is.

A few months ago, Autonomy founder and CEO Mike Lynch sold his company to HP for £7.1 billion. Back in 2000, when he had just become Britain's first software billionaire, Lynch gave an interview in which he talked about perception and explained how he built his company. It was based, he said, on the ideas of a little-known 18th-century clergyman called Thomas Bayes. That was my introduction to Thomas Bayes, whose ideas have been used to solve many intractable problems, a number of which Sharon Bertsch McGrayne studies in depth in The Theory That Would Not Die. In the last ten years, Bayes has become famous, and few working in the field of probability theory, computer intelligence or mathematics can have failed to have come into contact with his rule.

We describe a Bayesian approach for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of prior knowledge and statistical data. First and foremost, we develop a methodology for assessing informative priors needed for learning. Our approach is derived from a set of assumptions made previously as well as the assumption oflikelihood equivalence, which says that data should not help to discriminate network structures that represent the same assertions of conditional independence. We show that likelihood equivalence when combined with previously made assumptions implies that the user's priors for network parameters can be encoded in a single Bayesian network for the next case to be seen--aprior network--and a single measure of confidence for that network. Second, using these priors, we show how to compute the relative posterior probabilities of network structures given data.

Several of the preprocessing steps necessary for indexing as discussed in Chapter 2: detecting a document's encoding (ASCII, Unicode UTF-8 etc; page 2.1.1);

In rare disease physician targeting, a major challenge is how to identify physicians who are treating diagnosed or underdiagnosed rare diseases patients. Rare diseases have extremely low incidence rate. For a specified rare disease, only a small number of patients are affected and a fractional of physicians are involved. The existing targeting methodologies, such as segmentation and profiling, are developed under mass market assumption. They are not suitable for rare disease market where the target classes are extremely imbalanced. The authors propose a graphical model approach to predict targets by jointly modeling physician and patient features from different data spaces and utilizing the extra relational information. Through an empirical example with medical claim and prescription data, the proposed approach demonstrates better accuracy in finding target physicians. The graph representation also provides visual interpretability of relationship among physicians and patients. The model can be extended to incorporate more complex dependency structures. This article contributes to the literature of exploring the benefit of utilizing relational dependencies among entities in healthcare industry.

We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an efficient MCMC inference algorithm that advances recent work on augmentation schemes for inference in negative binomial models. Finally, we demonstrate the model's inductive bias using a variety of real-world data sets, showing that it exhibits superior predictive performance over other models and infers highly interpretable latent structure.

While machine learning originated as a subfield of artificial intelligence--the area of computer science dedicated to creating humanlike intelligence in computers--it's expanded beyond the boundaries of A.I. into data science and expert systems. But machine learning is fundamentally different from much of what we think of as programming. When we think of a computer program (or the algorithm a program implements), we generally think of a human engineer giving a set of instructions to a computer, telling it how to handle certain inputs that will generate certain outputs. The state maintained by the program changes over time--a Web browser keeps track of which pages it's displaying and responds to user input by (ideally) reacting in a determinate and predictable fashion--but the logic of the program is essentially described by the code written by the human. Machine learning, in many of its forms, is about building programs that themselves build programs.

Here is an excellent ILP reference, somewhat older but publicly available. The most recent issue of SIGKDD Explorations is a special issue devoted to multi-relational data mining.

Many and long were the conversations between Lord Byron and Shelley to which I was a devout and silent listener. During one of these, various philosophical doctrines were discussed, and among others the nature of the principle of life, and whether there was any probability of its ever being discovered and communicated. They talked of the experiments of Dr. Darwin (I speak not of what the doctor really did or said that he did, but, as more to my purpose, of what was then spoken of as having been done by him), who preserved a piece of vermicelli in a glass case till by some extraordinary means it began to move with a voluntary motion. Not thus, after all, would life be given. Perhaps a corpse would be reanimated; galvanism had given token of such things: perhaps the component parts of a creature might be manufactured, brought together, and endued with vital warmth (Butler 1998).

This page contains some information on research by David Poole and students on probabilistic reasoning and decision making. It is not intended to be an introduction to the vast literature on these topics, but only the incremental work done by me. For more different perspectives, see the pointers from the Uncertainty in AI (UAI) home page. Maybe someday I will write an online introduction. Probabilistic Horn abduction is a pragmatic combination of logic and probability.