Restricted Boltzmann machines~(RBMs) and conditional RBMs~(CRBMs) are popular models for a wide range of applications. In previous work, learning on such models has been dominated by contrastive divergence~(CD) and its variants. Belief propagation~(BP) algorithms are believed to be slow for structured prediction on conditional RBMs~(e.g., Mnih et al. [2011]), and not as good as CD when applied in learning~(e.g., Larochelle et al. [2012]). In this work, we present a matrix-based implementation of belief propagation algorithms on CRBMs, which is easily scalable to tens of thousands of visible and hidden units. We demonstrate that, in both maximum likelihood and max-margin learning, training conditional RBMs with BP as the inference routine can provide significantly better results than current state-of-the-art CD methods on structured prediction problems. We also include practical guidelines on training CRBMs with BP, and some insights on the interaction of learning and inference algorithms for CRBMs.

We draw a formal connection between using synthetic training data to optimize neural network parameters and approximate, Bayesian, model-based reasoning. In particular, training a neural network using synthetic data can be viewed as learning a proposal distribution generator for approximate inference in the synthetic-data generative model. We demonstrate this connection in a recognition task where we develop a novel Captcha-breaking architecture and train it using synthetic data, demonstrating both state-of-the-art performance and a way of computing task-specific posterior uncertainty. Using a neural network trained this way, we also demonstrate successful breaking of real-world Captchas currently used by Facebook and Wikipedia. Reasoning from these empirical results and drawing connections with Bayesian modeling, we discuss the robustness of synthetic data results and suggest important considerations for ensuring good neural network generalization when training with synthetic data.

In this paper we introduce a new classification algorithm called Optimization of Distributions Differences (ODD). The algorithm aims to find a transformation from the feature space to a new space where the instances in the same class are as close as possible to one another while the gravity centers of these classes are as far as possible from one another. This aim is formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem that is solved by a hybrid of an evolutionary strategy and the Quasi-Newton method. The choice of the transformation function is flexible and could be any continuous space function. We experiment with a linear and a non-linear transformation in this paper. We show that the algorithm can outperform 6 other state-of-the-art classification methods, namely naive Bayes, support vector machines, linear discriminant analysis, multi-layer perceptrons, decision trees, and k-nearest neighbors, in 12 standard classification datasets. Our results show that the method is less sensitive to the imbalanced number of instances comparing to these methods. We also show that ODD maintains its performance better than other classification methods in these datasets, hence, offers a better generalization ability.

In an end-to-end dialog system, the aim of dialog state tracking is to accurately estimate a compact representation of the current dialog status from a sequence of noisy observations produced by the speech recognition and the natural language understanding modules. This paper introduces a novel method of dialog state tracking based on the general paradigm of machine reading and proposes to solve it using an End-to-End Memory Network, MemN2N, a memory-enhanced neural network architecture. We evaluate the proposed approach on the second Dialog State Tracking Challenge (DSTC-2) dataset. The corpus has been converted for the occasion in order to frame the hidden state variable inference as a question-answering task based on a sequence of utterances extracted from a dialog. We show that the proposed tracker gives encouraging results. Then, we propose to extend the DSTC-2 dataset with specific reasoning capabilities requirement like counting, list maintenance, yes-no question answering and indefinite knowledge management. Finally, we present encouraging results using our proposed MemN2N based tracking model.

Many generative models can be expressed as a differentiable function of random inputs drawn from some simple probability density. This framework includes both deep generative architectures such as Variational Autoencoders and a large class of procedurally defined simulator models. We present a method for performing efficient MCMC inference in such models when conditioning on observations of the model output. For some models this offers an asymptotically exact inference method where Approximate Bayesian Computation might otherwise be employed. We use the intuition that inference corresponds to integrating a density across the manifold corresponding to the set of inputs consistent with the observed outputs. This motivates the use of a constrained variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo which leverages the smooth geometry of the manifold to coherently move between inputs exactly consistent with observations.

Bayesian inference is the process of analyzing statistical models with the incorporation of prior knowledge about the model or model parameters. The root of such inference is Bayes' theorem: In this formula mu and tau, sometimes known as hyperparameters, are also known. The following graph shows the prior, likelihood, and posterior for theta. In some simple problems such as the previous normal mean inference example, it is easy to figure out the posterior distribution in a closed form. But in general problems that involve non-conjugate priors, the posterior distributions are difficult or impossible to compute analytically.

In this post, we consider different approaches for time series modeling. The forecasting approaches using linear models, ARIMA alpgorithm, XGBoost machine learning algorithm are described. Results of different model combinations are shown. For probabilistic modeling the approaches using copulas and Bayesian inference are considered. Time series analysis, especially forecasting, is an important problem of modern predictive analytics.

To guide their behavior, humans and animals rely on previously learned knowledge about the world. Since the world is complex and models of the world are never perfect, the question arises whether we should trust our internal world model that we have built from past data or whether we should readjust it when we receive a new data sample. In noisy environments, a single data sample may not be reliable and in general we need to average over several data samples. However, when a structural change occurs in the environment, the most recent data samples are the most informative ones and we should put more weight on recent data samples than on earlier ones. Indeed, both humans and animals adaptively adjust the relative contribution of old and newly acquired data during learning (Behrens et al., 2007; Nassar et al., 2012; Krugel et al., 2009; Pearce and Hall, 1980) and rapidly adapt to changing environments (Pearce and Hall, 1980; Wilson et al., 1992; Holland, 1997).

Explosive growth in data and availability of cheap computing resources have sparked increasing interest in Big learning, an emerging subfield that studies scalable machine learning algorithms, systems, and applications with Big Data. Bayesian methods represent one important class of statistic methods for machine learning, with substantial recent developments on adaptive, flexible and scalable Bayesian learning. This article provides a survey of the recent advances in Big learning with Bayesian methods, termed Big Bayesian Learning, including nonparametric Bayesian methods for adaptively inferring model complexity, regularized Bayesian inference for improving the flexibility via posterior regularization, and scalable algorithms and systems based on stochastic subsampling and distributed computing for dealing with large-scale applications.

We study the estimation of the latent variable Gaussian graphical model (LVGGM), where the precision matrix is the superposition of a sparse matrix and a low-rank matrix. In order to speed up the estimation of the sparse plus low-rank components, we propose a sparsity constrained maximum likelihood estimator based on matrix factorization, and an efficient alternating gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding to solve it. Our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the convex relaxation based methods for LVGGM. In addition, we prove that our algorithm is guaranteed to linearly converge to the unknown sparse and low-rank components up to the optimal statistical precision. Experiments on both synthetic and genomic data demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over the state-of-the-art algorithms and corroborate our theory.