Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with the desired invariant distribution. In this document, we focus on the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler, which can be considered as the atom of the MCMC techniques, introducing the basic notions and different properties. We describe in details all the elements involved in the MH algorithm and the most relevant variants. Several improvements and recent extensions proposed in the literature are also briefly discussed, providing a quick but exhaustive overview of the current Metropolis-based sampling's world.

It is not death that a man should fear but he should fear never beginning to live.

In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a sequence of noisy time stamps corresponding to the occurrence of positive class events. Such temporally imprecise labels commonly occur in areas like mobile health research where human annotators are tasked with labeling the occurrence of very short duration events. We propose a general learning framework for this problem that can accommodate different base classifiers and noise models. We present results on real mobile health data showing that the proposed framework significantly outperforms a number of alternatives including assuming that the label time stamps are noise-free, transforming the problem into the multiple instance learning framework, and learning on labels that were manually re-aligned.

In this paper, we consider adaptive decision-making problems for stochastic state estimation with partial observations. First, we introduce the concept of weak adaptive submodularity, a generalization of adaptive submodularity, which has found great success in solving challenging adaptive state estimation problems. Then, for the problem of active diagnosis, i.e., discrete state estimation via active sensing, we show that an adaptive greedy policy has a near-optimal performance guarantee when the reward function possesses this property. We further show that the reward function for group-based active diagnosis, which arises in applications such as medical diagnosis and state estimation with persistent sensor faults, is also weakly adaptive submodular. Finally, in experiments of state estimation for an aircraft electrical system with persistent sensor faults, we observe that an adaptive greedy policy performs equally well as an exhaustive search.

Simple models, in information theoretic terms, are those with a small stochastic complexity. We study the stochastic complexity of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order. Invariance with respect to bijections within the space of operators allows us to classify models in complexity classes. This invariance also shows that simplicity is not related to the order of the interactions, but rather to their mutual arrangement. Models where statistical dependencies are localized on non-overlapping groups of few variables (and that afford predictions on independencies that are easy to falsify) are simple. On the contrary, fully connected pairwise models, which are often used in statistical learning, are highly complex because of their extended set of interactions.

This paper presents sampling-based speech parameter generation using moment-matching networks for Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based speech synthesis. Although people never produce exactly the same speech even if we try to express the same linguistic and para-linguistic information, typical statistical speech synthesis produces completely the same speech, i.e., there is no inter-utterance variation in synthetic speech. To give synthetic speech natural inter-utterance variation, this paper builds DNN acoustic models that make it possible to randomly sample speech parameters. The DNNs are trained so that they make the moments of generated speech parameters close to those of natural speech parameters. Since the variation of speech parameters is compressed into a low-dimensional simple prior noise vector, our algorithm has lower computation cost than direct sampling of speech parameters. As the first step towards generating synthetic speech that has natural inter-utterance variation, this paper investigates whether or not the proposed sampling-based generation deteriorates synthetic speech quality. In evaluation, we compare speech quality of conventional maximum likelihood-based generation and proposed sampling-based generation. The result demonstrates the proposed generation causes no degradation in speech quality.

Constraint-based causal discovery (CCD) algorithms require fast and accurate conditional independence (CI) testing. The Kernel Conditional Independence Test (KCIT) is currently one of the most popular CI tests in the non-parametric setting, but many investigators cannot use KCIT with large datasets because the test scales cubicly with sample size. We therefore devise two relaxations called the Randomized Conditional Independence Test (RCIT) and the Randomized conditional Correlation Test (RCoT) which both approximate KCIT by utilizing random Fourier features. In practice, both of the proposed tests scale linearly with sample size and return accurate p-values much faster than KCIT in the large sample size context. CCD algorithms run with RCIT or RCoT also return graphs at least as accurate as the same algorithms run with KCIT but with large reductions in run time.

Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned model. For discrete Bayesian networks, the canonical choice for a posterior score is the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform (BDeu) marginal likelihood with a uniform (U) graph prior, which assumes a uniform prior both on the network structures and on the parameters of the networks. In this paper, we investigate the problems arising from these assumptions, focusing on those caused by small sample sizes and sparse data. We then propose an alternative posterior score: the Bayesian Dirichlet sparse (BDs) marginal likelihood with a marginal uniform (MU) graph prior. Like U+BDeu, MU+BDs does not require any prior information on the probabilistic structure of the data and can be used as a replacement noninformative score. We study its theoretical properties and we evaluate its performance in an extensive simulation study, showing that MU+BDs is both more accurate than U+BDeu in learning the structure of the network and competitive in predicting power, while not being computationally more complex to estimate.

We introduce a novel approach for estimating Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) parameters from collapsed Gibbs samples (CGS), by leveraging the full conditional distributions over the latent variable assignments to efficiently average over multiple samples, for little more computational cost than drawing a single additional collapsed Gibbs sample. Our approach can be understood as adapting the soft clustering methodology of Collapsed Variational Bayes (CVB0) to CGS parameter estimation, in order to get the best of both techniques. Our estimators can straightforwardly be applied to the output of any existing implementation of CGS, including modern accelerated variants. We perform extensive empirical comparisons of our estimators with those of standard collapsed inference algorithms on real-world data for both unsupervised LDA and Prior-LDA, a supervised variant of LDA for multi-label classification. Our results show a consistent advantage of our approach over traditional CGS under all experimental conditions, and over CVB0 inference in the majority of conditions. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of averaging over multiple samples in LDA parameter estimation, and the use of efficient computational techniques to do so.

This paper presents an automated supervised method for Persian wordnet construction. Using a Persian corpus and a bi-lingual dictionary, the initial links between Persian words and Princeton WordNet synsets have been generated. These links will be discriminated later as correct or incorrect by employing seven features in a trained classification system. The whole method is just a classification system, which has been trained on a train set containing FarsNet as a set of correct instances. State of the art results on the automatically derived Persian wordnet is achieved. The resulted wordnet with a precision of 91.18% includes more than 16,000 words and 22,000 synsets.