Estimating causal effects from real-world relational data can be challenging when the underlying causal model and potential confounders are unknown. While several causal discovery algorithms exist for learning causal models with latent confounders from data, they assume that the data is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and are not well-suited for learning from relational data. Similarly, existing relational causal discovery algorithms assume causal sufficiency, which is unrealistic for many real-world datasets. To address this gap, we propose RelFCI, a sound and complete causal discovery algorithm for relational data with latent confounders. Our work builds upon the Fast Causal Inference (FCI) and Relational Causal Discovery (RCD) algorithms and it defines new graphical models, necessary to support causal discovery in relational domains. We also establish soundness and completeness guarantees for relational d-separation with latent confounders. We present experimental results demonstrating the effectiveness of RelFCI in identifying the correct causal structure in relational causal models with latent confounders.

Statistical analysis of corpora provides an approach to quantitatively investigate natural languages. This approach has revealed that several power laws consistently emerge across different corpora and languages, suggesting universal mechanisms underlying languages. Particularly, the power-law decay of correlation has been interpreted as evidence for underlying hierarchical structures in syntax, semantics, and discourse. This perspective has also been extended to child speeches and animal signals. However, the argument supporting this interpretation has not been empirically tested in natural languages. To address this problem, the present study examines the validity of the argument for syntactic structures. Specifically, we test whether the statistical properties of parse trees align with the assumptions in the argument. Using English and Japanese corpora, we analyze the mutual information, deviations from probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs), and other properties in natural language parse trees, as well as in the PCFG that approximates these parse trees. Our results indicate that the assumptions do not hold for syntactic structures and that it is difficult to apply the proposed argument to child speeches and animal signals, highlighting the need to reconsider the relationship between the power law and hierarchical structures.

Preconditioning is a key component of MCMC algorithms that improves sampling efficiency by facilitating exploration of geometrically complex target distributions through an invertible map. While linear preconditioners are often sufficient for moderately complex target distributions, recent work has explored nonlinear preconditioning with invertible neural networks as components of normalizing flows (NFs). However, empirical and theoretical studies show that overparameterized NF preconditioners can degrade sampling efficiency and fit quality. Moreover, existing NF-based approaches do not adapt their architectures to the target distribution. Related work outside of MCMC similarly finds that suitably parameterized NFs can achieve comparable or superior performance with substantially less training time or data. We propose a factorized preconditioning architecture that reduces NF complexity by combining a linear component with a conditional NF, improving adaptability to target geometry. The linear preconditioner is applied to dimensions that are approximately Gaussian, as estimated from warmup samples, while the conditional NF models more complex dimensions. Our method yields significantly better tail samples on two complex synthetic distributions and consistently better performance on a sparse logistic regression posterior across varying likelihood and prior strengths. It also achieves higher effective sample sizes on hierarchical Bayesian model posteriors with weak likelihoods and strong funnel geometries. This approach is particularly relevant for hierarchical Bayesian model analyses with limited data and could inform current theoretical and software strides in neural MCMC design.

Large language models (LLMs) can be controlled at inference time through prompts (in-context learning) and internal activations (activation steering). Different accounts have been proposed to explain these methods, yet their common goal of controlling model behavior raises the question of whether these seemingly disparate methodologies can be seen as specific instances of a broader framework. Motivated by this, we develop a unifying, predictive account of LLM control from a Bayesian perspective. Specifically, we posit that both context- and activation-based interventions impact model behavior by altering its belief in latent concepts: steering operates by changing concept priors, while in-context learning leads to an accumulation of evidence. This results in a closed-form Bayesian model that is highly predictive of LLM behavior across context- and activation-based interventions in a set of domains inspired by prior work on many-shot in-context learning. This model helps us explain prior empirical phenomena - e.g., sigmoidal learning curves as in-context evidence accumulates - while predicting novel ones - e.g., additivity of both interventions in log-belief space, which results in distinct phases such that sudden and dramatic behavioral shifts can be induced by slightly changing intervention controls. Taken together, this work offers a unified account of prompt-based and activation-based control of LLM behavior, and a methodology for empirically predicting the effects of these interventions.

The optimization-based damage detection and damage state digital twinning capabilities are examined here of a novel conditional-labeled generative adversarial network methodology. The framework outperforms current approaches for fault anomaly detection as no prior information is required for the health state of the system: a topic of high significance for real-world applications. Specifically, current artificial intelligence-based digital twinning approaches suffer from the uncertainty related to obtaining poor predictions when a low number of measurements is available, physics knowledge is missing, or when the damage state is unknown. To this end, an unsupervised framework is examined and validated rigorously on the benchmark structural health monitoring measurements of Z24 Bridge: a post-tensioned concrete highway bridge in Switzerland. In implementing the approach, firstly, different same damage-level measurements are used as inputs, while the model is forced to converge conditionally to two different damage states. Secondly, the process is repeated for a different group of measurements. Finally, the convergence scores are compared to identify which one belongs to a different damage state. The process for both healthy-to-healthy and damage-to-healthy input data creates, simultaneously, measurements for digital twinning purposes at different damage states, capable of pattern recognition and machine learning data generation. Further to this process, a support vector machine classifier and a principal component analysis procedure is developed to assess the generated and real measurements of each damage category, serving as a secondary new dynamics learning indicator in damage scenarios. Importantly, the approach is shown to capture accurately damage over healthy measurements, providing a powerful tool for vibration-based system-level monitoring and scalable infrastructure resilience.

Cycle rickshaw pullers are highly vulnerable to extreme heat, yet little is known about how their physiological biomarkers respond under such conditions. This study collected real-time weather and physiological data using wearable sensors from 100 rickshaw pullers in Dhaka, Bangladesh. In addition, interviews with 12 pullers explored their knowledge, perceptions, and experiences related to climate change. We developed a Linear Gaussian Bayesian Network (LGBN) regression model to predict key physiological biomarkers based on activity, weather, and demographic features. The model achieved normalized mean absolute error values of 0.82, 0.47, 0.65, and 0.67 for skin temperature, relative cardiac cost, skin conductance response, and skin conductance level, respectively. Using projections from 18 CMIP6 climate models, we layered the LGBN on future climate forecasts to analyze survivability for current (2023-2025) and future years (2026-2100). Based on thresholds of WBGT above 31.1°C and skin temperature above 35°C, 32% of rickshaw pullers already face high heat exposure risk. By 2026-2030, this percentage may rise to 37% with average exposure lasting nearly 12 minutes, or about two-thirds of the trip duration. A thematic analysis of interviews complements these findings, showing that rickshaw pullers recognize their increasing climate vulnerability and express concern about its effects on health and occupational survivability.

This paper presents a coordinate ascent algorithm to learn dynamic and measurement models in dynamic state estimation using maximum likelihood estimation in a supervised manner. In particular, the dynamic and measurement models are assumed to be Gaussian and the algorithm learns the neural network parameters that model the dynamic and measurement functions, and also the noise covariance matrices. The trained dynamic and measurement models are then used with a non-linear Kalman filter algorithm to estimate the state during the testing phase.

Vision-language pre-trained models, such as CLIP, have established new benchmarks in multimodal data mining. In such models, few-shot fine-tuning is a major challenge to achieve optimal performance on both in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets, especially when labeled data is scarce. Most existing fine-tuning approaches rely on first-order gradient-based optimizers, which typically suffer from slow convergence, sensitivity to step-size hyperparameters, and poor generalization in OOD settings. In contrast, second-order methods utilize local curvature information of the loss landscape to adjust the update step size. This is particularly beneficial for CLIP models, whose non-convex loss functions often contain sharp critical points. In such cases, natural gradient direction can offer more substantial and efficient per-iteration updates when fine-tuning with limited data. Natural Gradient Descent (NGD) is obtained by preconditioning the standard gradient with the inverse Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), which is computationally expensive for large models. To address this, we propose a Bayesian approximation of NGD using a Kalman filter for CLIP models. Our method combines the benefits of second-order optimization with Bayesian inference, which enhances generalization while providing uncertainty quantification. Extensive experiments conducted on diverse image classification datasets demonstrate that our algorithm consistently achieves superior--or comparable--ID performance and improved OOD robustness compared to state-of-the-art baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first successful application of Kalman filtering to fine-tuning CLIP-based models, which enables more robust and efficient learning in vision-language tasks.

Recurrent exacerbations remain a common yet preventable outcome for many children with asthma. Machine learning (ML) algorithms using electronic medical records (EMR) could allow accurate identification of children at risk for exacerbations and facilitate referral for preventative comprehensive care to avoid this morbidity. We developed ML algorithms to predict repeat severe exacerbations (i.e. asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits or future hospital admissions) for children with a prior asthma ED visit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Retrospective pre-COVID19 (Feb 2017 - Feb 2019, N=2716) Epic EMR data from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) linked with environmental pollutant exposure and neighbourhood marginalization information was used to train various ML models. We used boosted trees (LGBM, XGB) and 3 open-source large language model (LLM) approaches (DistilGPT2, Llama 3.2 1B and Llama-8b-UltraMedical). Models were tuned and calibrated then validated in a second retrospective post-COVID19 dataset (Jul 2022 - Apr 2023, N=1237) from CHEO. Models were compared using the area under the curve (AUC) and F1 scores, with SHAP values used to determine the most predictive features. The LGBM ML model performed best with the most predictive features in the final AIRE-KIDS_ED model including prior asthma ED visit, the Canadian triage acuity scale, medical complexity, food allergy, prior ED visits for non-asthma respiratory diagnoses, and age for an AUC of 0.712, and F1 score of 0.51. This is a nontrivial improvement over the current decision rule which has F1=0.334. While the most predictive features in the AIRE-KIDS_HOSP model included medical complexity, prior asthma ED visit, average wait time in the ED, the pediatric respiratory assessment measure score at triage and food allergy.

Understanding probabilistic relationships among variables is crucial for analyzing complex systems. Traditional structure learning methods often require extensive observational data and incur high computational costs. Recent studies have explored using large language models (LLMs) for structure learning, but most treat LLMs as auxiliary tools for pre-processing or post-processing, leaving the core learning process data-driven. In this work, we propose a unified framework for Bayesian network structure discovery that places LLMs at the center, supporting both data-free and data-aware settings. In the data-free case, we introduce \textbf{PromptBN} to query LLMs with metadata and efficiently uncover valid probabilistic relationships. When observational data are available, we introduce \textbf{ReActBN}, which integrates the ReAct reasoning paradigm with structure scores such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for iterative refinement. Unlike prior methods that offload refinement to external algorithms, our framework maintains the LLM actively in the loop throughout the discovery process. Experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms both existing LLM-based approaches and traditional data-driven algorithms, particularly in the low- or no-data scenario. Code is publicly available at {\texttt{\textcolor{magenta}{https://github.com/sherryzyh/prompt2bn}}}.