We consider the problem of sequentially making decisions that are rewarded by "successes" and "failures" which can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on a partially controllable vector of attributes for each instance. The learner takes an active role in selecting samples from the instance pool. The goal is to maximize the probability of success in either offline (training) or online (testing) phases. Our problem is motivated by real-world applications where observations are time-consuming and/or expensive. We develop a knowledge gradient policy using an online Bayesian linear classifier to guide the experiment by maximizing the expected value of information of labeling each alternative. We provide a finite-time analysis of the estimated error and show that the maximum likelihood estimator based produced by the KG policy is consistent and asymptotically normal. We also show that the knowledge gradient policy is asymptotically optimal in an offline setting. This work further extends the knowledge gradient to the setting of contextual bandits. We report the results of a series of experiments that demonstrate its efficiency.

In this paper, we consider the use of structure learning methods for probabilistic graphical models to identify statistical dependencies in high-dimensional physical processes. Such processes are often synthetically characterized using PDEs (partial differential equations) and are observed in a variety of natural phenomena, including geoscience data capturing atmospheric and hydrological phenomena. Classical structure learning approaches such as the PC algorithm and variants are challenging to apply due to their high computational and sample requirements. Modern approaches, often based on sparse regression and variants, do come with finite sample guarantees, but are usually highly sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters, e.g., parameter $\lambda$ for sparsity inducing constraint or regularization. In this paper, we present ACLIME-ADMM, an efficient two-step algorithm for adaptive structure learning, which estimates an edge specific parameter $\lambda_{ij}$ in the first step, and uses these parameters to learn the structure in the second step. Both steps of our algorithm use (inexact) ADMM to solve suitable linear programs, and all iterations can be done in closed form in an efficient block parallel manner. We compare ACLIME-ADMM with baselines on both synthetic data simulated by partial differential equations (PDEs) that model advection-diffusion processes, and real data (50 years) of daily global geopotential heights to study information flow in the atmosphere. ACLIME-ADMM is shown to be efficient, stable, and competitive, usually better than the baselines especially on difficult problems. On real data, ACLIME-ADMM recovers the underlying structure of global atmospheric circulation, including switches in wind directions at the equator and tropics entirely from the data.

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) uses brain signals in order to provide a new method for communication between human and outside world. Feature extraction, selection and classification are among the main matters of concerns in signal processing stage of BCI. In this article, we present our findings about the most effective features and classifiers in some brain tasks. Six different groups of classical features and twelve classifiers have been examined in nine datasets of brain signal. The results indicate that energy of brain signals in {\alpha} and \b{eta} frequency bands, together with some statistical parameters are more effective, comparing to the other types of extracted features. In addition, Bayesian classifier with Gaussian distribution assumption and also Support Vector Machine (SVM) show to classify different BCI datasets more accurately than the other classifiers. We believe that the results can give an insight about a strategy for blind classification of brain signals in brain-computer interface.

In this paper we present a comprehensive view of prominent causal discovery algorithms, categorized into two main categories (1) assuming acyclic and no latent variables, and (2) allowing both cycles and latent variables, along with experimental results comparing them from three perspectives: (a) structural accuracy, (b) standard predictive accuracy, and (c) accuracy of counterfactual inference. For (b) and (c) we train causal Bayesian networks with structures as predicted by each causal discovery technique to carry out counterfactual or standard predictive inference. We compare causal algorithms on two pub- licly available and one simulated datasets having different sample sizes: small, medium and large. Experiments show that structural accuracy of a technique does not necessarily correlate with higher accuracy of inferencing tasks. Fur- ther, surveyed structure learning algorithms do not perform well in terms of structural accuracy in case of datasets having large number of variables.

Sampling is a fundamental topic in graph signal processing, having found applications in estimation, clustering, and video compression. In contrast to traditional signal processing, the irregularity of the signal domain makes selecting a sampling set non-trivial and hard to analyze. Indeed, though conditions for graph signal interpolation from noiseless samples exist, they do not lead to a unique sampling set. The presence of noise makes choosing among these sampling sets a hard combinatorial problem. Although greedy sampling schemes are commonly used in practice, they have no performance guarantee. This work takes a twofold approach to address this issue. First, universal performance bounds are derived for the Bayesian estimation of graph signals from noisy samples. In contrast to currently available bounds, they are not restricted to specific sampling schemes and hold for any sampling sets. Second, this paper provides near-optimal guarantees for greedy sampling by introducing the concept of approximate submodularity and updating the classical greedy bound. It then provides explicit bounds on the approximate supermodularity of the interpolation mean-square error showing that it can be optimized with worst-case guarantees using greedy search even though it is not supermodular. Simulations illustrate the derived bound for different graph models and show an application of graph signal sampling to reduce the complexity of kernel principal component analysis.

Looking at the picture above you may have easily figured out \(P(\text{red} \text{yellow})\) by thinking "This is easy! There are 6 yellow pegs, 4 of them are over red so the probability of being over a red block if I'm on a yellow one is 4/6". If you did follow this line of thinking congratulations, you just independently discovered Bayes' Theorem! Of course mathematical language is extremely concise, and human intuition is able to easily jump steps in its reasoning process; getting from our intuition to Bayes' Theorem will require a bit of work. Let's begin formalizing this intuition by coming up with a way to calculate "there are 6 yellow pegs."

Flow cytometry is a high-throughput technology used to quantify multiple surface and intracellular markers at the level of a single cell. This enables to identify cell sub-types, and to determine their relative proportions. Improvements of this technology allow to describe millions of individual cells from a blood sample using multiple markers. This results in high-dimensional datasets, whose manual analysis is highly time-consuming and poorly reproducible. While several methods have been developed to perform automatic recognition of cell populations, most of them treat and analyze each sample independently. However, in practice, individual samples are rarely independent (e.g. longitudinal studies). Here, we propose to use a Bayesian nonparametric approach with Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of multivariate skew $t$-distributions to perform model based clustering of flow-cytometry data. DPM models directly estimate the number of cell populations from the data, avoiding model selection issues, and skew $t$-distributions provides robustness to outliers and non-elliptical shape of cell populations. To accommodate repeated measurements, we propose a sequential strategy relying on a parametric approximation of the posterior. We illustrate the good performance of our method on simulated data, on an experimental benchmark dataset, and on new longitudinal data from the DALIA-1 trial which evaluates a therapeutic vaccine against HIV. On the benchmark dataset, the sequential strategy outperforms all other methods evaluated, and similarly, leads to improved performance on the DALIA-1 data. We have made the method available for the community in the R package NPflow.

Curating labeled training data has become the primary bottleneck in machine learning. Recent frameworks address this bottleneck with generative models to synthesize labels at scale from weak supervision sources. The generative model's dependency structure directly affects the quality of the estimated labels, but selecting a structure automatically without any labeled data is a distinct challenge. We propose a structure estimation method that maximizes the $\ell_1$-regularized marginal pseudolikelihood of the observed data. Our analysis shows that the amount of unlabeled data required to identify the true structure scales sublinearly in the number of possible dependencies for a broad class of models. Simulations show that our method is 100$\times$ faster than a maximum likelihood approach and selects $1/4$ as many extraneous dependencies. We also show that our method provides an average of 1.5 F1 points of improvement over existing, user-developed information extraction applications on real-world data such as PubMed journal abstracts.

As reviewed by [Owhadi and Scovel], the field of statistical decision theory introduced by Wald, building on a game theoretic foundation developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern, provides links between Bayesian and frequentist statistical philosophies through the concepts of decision rules, admissibility, and risk functions amongst others. Moreover, a recent thrust of research motivated by machine learning has put much emphasis on prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been widely used. The purpose of this note is to demonstrate that classic decision theoretic results can be simply applied to the analysis of prediction problems. In fact, both [Berger] and [Robert] remark upon the ease of applying statistical decision theory within the context of prediction, however, no explicit result is stated in either work; the contribution of this note, therefore, is to highlight a simple way in which the results of statistical decision theory might apply to prediction problems. To the author's knowledge the most similar lines of thought appear in work by [Nayak and El-Baz], where the loss function depends on the underlying parameter (in contrast to what follows).

This article was posted by Sunil Ray. Sunil is a Business Analytics and BI professional. Here's a situation you've got into: You are working on a classification problem and you have generated your set of hypothesis, created features and discussed the importance of variables. Within an hour, stakeholders want to see the first cut of the model. You have hunderds of thousands of data points and quite a few variables in your training data set.