Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investigate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework in which factual and counterfactual outcomes are modeled as the outputs of a function in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vvRKHS). We develop a nonparametric Bayesian method for learning the treatment effects using a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a linear coregionalization kernel as a prior over the vvRKHS. The Bayesian approach allows us to compute individualized measures of confidence in our estimates via pointwise credible intervals, which are crucial for realizing the full potential of precision medicine. The impact of selection bias is alleviated via a risk-based empirical Bayes method for adapting the multi-task GP prior, which jointly minimizes the empirical error in factual outcomes and the uncertainty in (unobserved) counterfactual outcomes. We conduct experiments on observational datasets for an interventional social program applied to premature infants, and a left ventricular assist device applied to cardiac patients wait-listed for a heart transplant. In both experiments, we show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are the two main tools for statistical modeling. While DNNs provide the ability to model rich and complex relationships between input and output variables, PGMs provide the ability to encode dependencies among the output variables themselves. End-to-end training methods for models with structured graphical dependencies on top of neural predictions have recently emerged as a principled way of combining these two paradigms. While these models have proven to be powerful in discriminative settings with discrete outputs, extensions to structured continuous spaces, as well as performing efficient inference in these spaces, are lacking. We propose non-parametric structured output networks (NSON), a modular approach that cleanly separates a non-parametric, structured posterior representation from a discriminative inference scheme but allows joint end-to-end training of both components. Our experiments evaluate the ability of NSONs to capture structured posterior densities (modeling) and to compute complex statistics of those densities (inference). We compare our model to output spaces of varying expressiveness and popular variational and sampling-based inference algorithms.

Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks is learning a model of conditional probabilities. However, these models are often based on strong assumptions (e.g., log-linear models), and hence their estimate of conditional probabilities is not robust and is highly dependent on the validity of their assumptions. Here we propose a framework for reasoning about conditional probabilities without assuming anything about the underlying distributions, except knowledge of their second order marginals, which can be estimated from data. We show how this setting leads to guaranteed bounds on conditional probabilities, which can be calculated efficiently in a variety of settings, including structured-prediction. Finally, we apply them to semi-supervised deep learning, obtaining results competitive with variational autoencoders.

Estimation of mutual information from observed samples is a basic primitive in machine learning, useful in several learning tasks including correlation mining, information bottleneck, Chow-Liu tree, and conditional independence testing in (causal) graphical models. While mutual information is a quantity well-defined for general probability spaces, estimators have been developed only in the special case of discrete or continuous pairs of random variables. Most of these estimators operate using the 3H-principle, i.e., by calculating the three (differential) entropies of X, Y and the pair (X, Y). However, in general mixture spaces, such individual entropies are not well defined, even though mutual information is. In this paper, we develop a novel estimator for estimating mutual information in discrete-continuous mixtures. We prove the consistency of this estimator theoretically as well as demonstrate its excellent empirical performance. This problem is relevant in a wide-array of applications, where some variables are discrete, some continuous, and others are a mixture between continuous and discrete components.

Random projections have been increasingly adopted for a diverse set of tasks in machine learning involving dimensionality reduction. One specific line of research on this topic has investigated the use of quantization subsequent to projection with the aim of additional data compression. Motivated by applications in nearest neighbor search and linear learning, we revisit the problem of recovering inner products (respectively cosine similarities) in such setting. We show that even under coarse scalar quantization with 3 to 5 bits per projection, the loss in accuracy tends to range from ``negligible'' to ``moderate''. One implication is that in most scenarios of practical interest, there is no need for a sophisticated recovery approach like maximum likelihood estimation as considered in previous work on the subject. What we propose herein also yields considerable improvements in terms of accuracy over the Hamming distance-based approach in Li et al. (ICML 2014) which is comparable in terms of simplicity

We consider maximum likelihood estimation of linear dynamical systems with generalized-linear observation models. Maximum likelihood is typically considered to be hard in this setting since latent states and transition parameters must be inferred jointly. Given that expectation-maximization does not scale and is prone to local minima, moment-matching approaches from the subspace identification literature have become standard, despite known statistical efficiency issues. In this paper, we instead reconsider likelihood maximization and develop an optimization based strategy for recovering the latent states and transition parameters. Key to the approach is a two-view reformulation of maximum likelihood estimation for linear dynamical systems that enables the use of global optimization algorithms for matrix factorization. We show that the proposed estimation strategy outperforms widely-used identification algorithms such as subspace identification methods, both in terms of accuracy and runtime.

We revisit the classical analysis of generative vs discriminative models for general exponential families, and high-dimensional settings. Towards this, we develop novel technical machinery, including a notion of separability of general loss functions, which allow us to provide a general framework to obtain l∞ convergence rates for general M-estimators. We use this machinery to analyze l∞ and l2 convergence rates of generative and discriminative models, and provide insights into their nuanced behaviors in high-dimensions. Our results are also applicable to differential parameter estimation, where the quantity of interest is the difference between generative model parameters.

Dropout-based regularization methods can be regarded as injecting random noise with pre-defined magnitude to different parts of the neural network during training. It was recently shown that Bayesian dropout procedure not only improves gener- alization but also leads to extremely sparse neural architectures by automatically setting the individual noise magnitude per weight. However, this sparsity can hardly be used for acceleration since it is unstructured. In the paper, we propose a new Bayesian model that takes into account the computational structure of neural net- works and provides structured sparsity, e.g. removes neurons and/or convolutional channels in CNNs. To do this we inject noise to the neurons outputs while keeping the weights unregularized. We establish the probabilistic model with a proper truncated log-uniform prior over the noise and truncated log-normal variational approximation that ensures that the KL-term in the evidence lower bound is com- puted in closed-form. The model leads to structured sparsity by removing elements with a low SNR from the computation graph and provides significant acceleration on a number of deep neural architectures. The model is easy to implement as it can be formulated as a separate dropout-like layer.

Many problems in machine learning are naturally expressed in the language of undirected graphical models. Here, we propose black-box learning and inference algorithms for undirected models that optimize a variational approximation to the log-likelihood of the model. Central to our approach is an upper bound on the log-partition function parametrized by a function q that we express as a flexible neural network. Our bound makes it possible to track the partition function during learning, to speed-up sampling, and to train a broad class of hybrid directed/undirected models via a unified variational inference framework. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several popular generative modeling datasets.

Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently proposed architectures into a stochastic recurrent model: each step in the sequence is associated with a latent variable that is used to condition the recurrent dynamics for future steps. Training is performed with amortised variational inference where the approximate posterior is augmented with a RNN that runs backward through the sequence. In addition to maximizing the variational lower bound, we ease training of the latent variables by adding an auxiliary cost which forces them to reconstruct the state of the backward recurrent network. This provides the latent variables with a task-independent objective that enhances the performance of the overall model. We found this strategy to perform better than alternative approaches such as KL annealing. Although being conceptually simple, our model achieves state-of-the-art results on standard speech benchmarks such as TIMIT and Blizzard and competitive performance on sequential MNIST. Finally, we apply our model to language modeling on the IMDB dataset where the auxiliary cost helps in learning interpretable latent variables.