According to Dennett, the same system may be described using a `physical' (mechanical) explanatory stance, or using an `intentional' (belief- and goal-based) explanatory stance. Humans tend to find the physical stance more helpful for certain systems, such as planets orbiting a star, and the intentional stance for others, such as living animals. We define a formal counterpart of physical and intentional stances within computational theory: a description of a system as either a device, or an agent, with the key difference being that `devices' are directly described in terms of an input-output mapping, while `agents' are described in terms of the function they optimise. Bayes' rule can then be applied to calculate the subjective probability of a system being a device or an agent, based only on its behaviour. We illustrate this using the trajectories of an object in a toy grid-world domain.

It is no doubt that the sub-field of machine learning / artificial intelligence has increasingly gained more popularity in the past couple of years. As Big Data is the hottest trend in the tech industry at the moment, machine learning is incredibly powerful to make predictions or calculated suggestions based on large amounts of data. Some of the most common examples of machine learning are Netflix's algorithms to make movie suggestions based on movies you have watched in the past or Amazon's algorithms that recommend books based on books you have bought before. So if you want to learn more about machine learning, how do you start? For me, my first introduction is when I took an Artificial Intelligence class when I was studying abroad in Copenhagen. My lecturer is a full-time Applied Math and CS professor at the Technical University of Denmark, in which his research areas are logic and artificial, focusing primarily on the use of logic to model human-like planning, reasoning and problem solving.

The demand of metals by modern technology has been shifting from common base metals to a variety of minor metals, such as cobalt or indium. The industrial importance and limited geological availability of some minor metals have led to them being considered more "critical," and there is a growing interest in such critical metals and their producing companies. In this research, we create a novel framework, Dynamic Advisor-Based Ensemble (dynABE), to predict the stock trend of major critical metal producers. Specifically, dynABE first utilizes domain knowledge to group the features into different "advisors," each advisor dealing with a particular economic sector. Then through ensembles of weak classifiers, each advisor produces a prediction result, and all the advisors are combined again in a biased online update fashion to dynamically make the final prediction. Based on a misclassification error of 32% for Jinchuan Group's stock (HKG: 2362), we further test a simple stock trading strategy, which leads to a back-tested return of 296%, or an excess return of 130% within one year. In addition, the feature set selected by dynABE also suggests potentially influential factors to metal criticality, because stock prices of major producers influence metal production. Therefore, not only does this research propose a novel framework for specialized stock trend prediction, it also provides domain insights into dynamic features that potentially influence metal criticality.

Causally insufficient structures (models with latent or hidden variables, or with confounding etc.) of joint probability distributions have been subject of intense study not only in statistics, but also in various AI systems. In AI, belief networks, being representations of joint probability distribution with an underlying directed acyclic graph structure, are paid special attention due to the fact that efficient reasoning (uncertainty propagation) methods have been developed for belief network structures. Algorithms have been therefore developed to acquire the belief network structure from data. As artifacts due to variable hiding negatively influence the performance of derived belief networks, models with latent variables have been studied and several algorithms for learning belief network structure under causal insufficiency have also been developed. Regrettably, some of them are known already to be erroneous (e.g. IC algorithm of [Pearl:Verma:91]. This paper is devoted to another algorithm, the Fast Causal Inference (FCI) Algorithm of [Spirtes:93]. It is proven by a specially constructed example that this algorithm, as it stands in [Spirtes:93], is also erroneous. Fundamental reason for failure of this algorithm is the temporary introduction of non-real links between nodes of the network with the intention of later removal. While for trivial dependency structures these non-real links may be actually removed, this may not be the case for complex ones, e.g. for the case described in this paper. A remedy of this failure is proposed.

We consider the problem of how to improve automatic target recognition by fusing the naive sensor-level classification decisions with "intuition," or context, in a mathematically principled way. This is a general approach that is compatible with many definitions of context, but for specificity, we consider context as co-occurrence in imagery. In particular, we consider images that contain multiple objects identified at various confidence levels. We learn the patterns of co-occurrence in each context, then use these patterns as hyper-parameters for a Hierarchical Bayesian Model. The result is that low-confidence sensor classification decisions can be dramatically improved by fusing those readings with context. We further use hyperpriors to address the case where multiple contexts may be appropriate. We also consider the Bayesian Network, an alternative to the Hierarchical Bayesian Model, which is computationally more efficient but assumes that context and sensor readings are uncorrelated.

Simulators often provide the best description of real-world phenomena; however, they also lead to challenging inverse problems because the density they implicitly define is often intractable. We present a new suite of simulation-based inference techniques that go beyond the traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approach, which struggles in a high-dimensional setting, and extend methods that use surrogate models based on neural networks. We show that additional information, such as the joint likelihood ratio and the joint score, can often be extracted from simulators and used to augment the training data for these surrogate models. Finally, we demonstrate that these new techniques are more sample efficient and provide higher-fidelity inference than traditional methods.

The understanding of variations in genome sequences assists us in identifying people who are predisposed to common diseases, solving rare diseases, and finding the corresponding population group of the individuals from a larger population group. Although classical machine learning techniques allow researchers to identify groups (i.e. clusters) of related variables, the accuracy, and effectiveness of these methods diminish for large and high-dimensional datasets such as the whole human genome. On the other hand, deep neural network architectures (the core of deep learning) can better exploit large-scale datasets to build complex models. In this paper, we use the K-means clustering approach for scalable genomic data analysis aiming towards clustering genotypic variants at the population scale. Finally, we train a deep belief network (DBN) for predicting the geographic ethnicity. We used the genotype data from the 1000 Genomes Project, which covers the result of genome sequencing for 2504 individuals from 26 different ethnic origins and comprises 84 million variants. Our experimental results, with a focus on accuracy and scalability, show the effectiveness and superiority compared to the state-of-the-art.

The literature groups algorithms to learn the structure of Bayesian networks from data in three separate classes: constraint-based algorithms, which use conditional independence tests to learn the dependence structure of the data; score-based algorithms, which use goodness-of-fit scores as objective functions to maximise; and hybrid algorithms that combine both approaches. Famously, Cowell (2001) showed that algorithms in the first two classes learn the same structures when the topological ordering of the network is known and we use entropy to assess conditional independence and goodness of fit. In this paper we address the complementary question: how do these classes of algorithms perform outside of the assumptions above? We approach this question by recog-nising that structure learning is defined by the combination of a statistical criterion and an algorithm that determines how the criterion is applied to the data. Removing the confounding effect of different choices for the statistical criterion, we find using both simulated and real-world data that constraint-based algorithms do not appear to be more efficient or more sensitive to errors than score-based algorithms; and that hybrid algorithms are not faster or more accurate than constraint-based algorithms. This suggests that commonly held beliefs on structure learning in the literature are strongly influenced by the choice of particular statistical criteria rather than just properties of the algorithms themselves.

While variational dropout approaches have been shown to be effective for network sparsification, they are still suboptimal in the sense that they set the dropout rate for each neuron without consideration of the input data. With such input-independent dropout, each neuron is evolved to be generic across inputs, which makes it difficult to sparsify networks without accuracy loss. To overcome this limitation, we propose adaptive variational dropout whose probabilities are drawn from sparsity-inducing beta-Bernoulli prior. It allows each neuron to be evolved either to be generic or specific for certain inputs, or dropped altogether. Such input-adaptive sparsity- inducing dropout allows the resulting network to tolerate larger degree of sparsity without losing its expressive power by removing redundancies among features. We validate our dependent variational beta-Bernoulli dropout on multiple public datasets, on which it obtains significantly more compact networks than baseline methods, with consistent accuracy improvements over the base networks.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance, especially those with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge this gap, by employing uncertainty-aware dynamics models. We propose a new algorithm called probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) that combines uncertainty-aware deep network dynamics models with sampling-based uncertainty propagation. Our comparison to state-of-the-art model-based and model-free deep RL algorithms shows that our approach matches the asymptotic performance of model-free algorithms on several challenging benchmark tasks, while requiring significantly fewer samples (e.g. 25 and 125 times fewer samples than Soft Actor Critic and Proximal Policy Optimization respectively on the half-cheetah task).